Just waiting for capital markets to figure out we are in a recession. https://t.co/5ff9n2IG0N pic.twitter.com/NN5wfno1MN
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) February 10, 2026
The market structure is way different than 2002-2008. I suspect the share of passive investing has changed the discounting mechanism and implies a more shocking rapid repricing when the passive money starts moving.
We will see.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) February 10, 2026
The indicator that predicted 2008 just flashed red.
Building permits.
Down 7% year-over-year.
When builders stop building, they see something you don't.
2007: Permits dropped → Housing crash
2019: Permits dropped → COVID recession
2025: Permits dropping → ???My rule:… pic.twitter.com/zMMYee6KAq
— Matt Giannino (@MarketMovesMatt) February 10, 2026
A friend lost their job 6 months ago.
Worked in Tech and made $300,000.
He is still unemployed.
Said his mortgage is over $5,000/month and he runs out of money in 3-4 months.
He had a wife and twins on the way. He’s usually optimistic but is starting to get worried now. https://t.co/Afemv58HIv
— Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) February 10, 2026
Citi Surprise Index and the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker starting to roll over.
It seemed last week when we had the stronger than expected ISM manufacturing print that perhaps markets were getting incredibly complacent about an accelerating economic outlook.
Fast forward, a week… pic.twitter.com/rKSHv5KOnB
— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) February 10, 2026
Negative equity is starting to appear.
Prices stop rising →
Mobility freezes →
Owners get trapped.That’s the next phase of a declining market. pic.twitter.com/Isbgpnd0EG
— Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 10, 2026
Margin debt likely surpassed $1.3 trillion last month pic.twitter.com/IRmBCt0TWG
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 10, 2026
US Consumer Delinquencies Jump to Highest in Almost a Decade