“STAGFLATION SHOCK”: Bond yields explode globally as inflation fears return

Japan’s 10-year yield hits 2.51%, highest since 1997; UK Gilts hit post-2008 highs…
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% but warns “higher inflation is unavoidable”…
German 10-year Bund at post-2011 high as energy costs hammer Eurozone GDP…
US March inflation surge (3.3%) kills hopes for a pre-summer “Pivot”…

US Q1 GDP (Advance) prints at 2.0%, missing forecasts despite “strong” headline…
PCE Price Index jumps to 3.5% in March; Iran war fallout hits the kitchen table…
Core PCE (Annualized) climbs to 3.0%; “Sticky” services inflation kills rate cut hopes…
Personal Spending (+0.9%) outpaces Income (+0.6%) as Americans dip into savings…

The Powell saga is a distraction.
The Fed’s independence has been gone for a while.

To be fair, what did people expect?

Inflation is still elevated while debt service is already at unsustainable levels.

You either crush the system with high rates, or you tolerate inflation and force rates lower.

This isn’t a debate. It’s math.

Meanwhile, in almost perfect timing:

Long term inflation expectations just jumped to two year highs today.

https://tavicosta.substack.com/p/the-end-of-feds-independence

Higher Chance We'll See a Rate Hike Than a Cut in 2026
byu/BarracudaGullible768 inEconomyCharts

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