Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Nic@puckrin Kevin Warsh just picked his two Fed advisers. Here’s why it matters: Daniel Covitz: 30 years at the Fed, specialist in financial stability & credit markets. Eric Engstrom: called the soft landing dead in mid-2025. His model flagged “mild stagflation” before anyone else was saying it. Together they argued yields are rising because of …
The European Central Bank held rates at 2.00% today but Christine Lagarde is already prepping the markets for a “Summer Hammer” in June… Euro-area GDP grew a dismal 0.1% in Q1, while energy-driven costs are pushing corporate selling price expectations to a staggering 3.5%… Central bankers are trapped by a “Stagflationary Nightmare,” the UK is …
Japan’s 10-year yield hits 2.51%, highest since 1997; UK Gilts hit post-2008 highs… Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% but warns “higher inflation is unavoidable”… German 10-year Bund at post-2011 high as energy costs hammer Eurozone GDP… US March inflation surge (3.3%) kills hopes for a pre-summer “Pivot”… US Q1 GDP (Advance) prints at …
All-time high since 1978.Last time it was close: 1980. Stagflation. Fed had to go to 20%.This time Fed can’t. $39T won’t allow it.Different era. Same pain. — Takul (@TakulMacro) April 13, 2026 Consumer sentiment hits record low, inflation fears rise amid Iran war Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted …
The highest gas prices in America. For Connie Lear, driving even her hybrid car is a luxury she can rarely afford. Lear lives in the rural town of June Lake, California, a picturesque community of 300 people near Yosemite National Park and the Nevada state line. June Lake is part of Mono County, which has …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought us our first update on the economic situation in the Euro after the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East. It comes from a source which we know that European Central Bank or ECB policymakers follow closely with both President Christine Lagarde and Dr. Isabel Schnabel frequently referring …
Markets are teetering on the edge and the tension is growing by the hour. Michael Hartnett warns that if the S&P 500 falls to roughly 6,600, policymakers may feel forced to act. At the same time, Jerome Powell is expected to signal that stagflation risks are rising, meaning slower growth coinciding with higher inflation. This …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
via Shaun Richards Even in what are grim times we are allowed a wry smile and that happened when I spotted this last night. ECB’s Lagarde: We Are Not At All In A Situation Of Stagflation. ( @LiveSquawk) I pointed out on social media that this was a case of never believe anything until it …
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨 BIG WARNING: US ECONOMY IS HEADING TOWARDS STAGFLATION Just now, US PPI and Core PPI data was released. US PPI came in at 2.9% vs. 2.6% expected. US Core PPI came in at 3.6%, its highest level in 11 months. This is a clear sign that US inflation is heating up …
For those arguing the GDP data "isn't that bad" due to the gov't shutdown, the ACTUAL data DISAGREES. The GDP Deflator came in at 3.6% – meaning most of the 1.4% GDP was inflation, NOT real growth. Forget the shutdown excuse. The weakness is real, and productivity is terrible. https://t.co/W13nd3nZAh pic.twitter.com/f88eUhdNRX — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) …
BREAKING: Silver surges to a record $64/oz, now up +121% in 2025. Gold futures are officially back above $4,300 as rate cuts into stagflation resume. pic.twitter.com/sztfB9sFJn — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 11, 2025 Cutting rates while bonds erode, lol. 2026 is going to be biblical for all the wrong reasons. — The Great Martis …
via notayesmanseconomics On Tuesday we received figures for the labour market which showed a weakening economy. Sometimes the labour market is ahead of the output or GDP numbers as for example we saw in 2012/13. But this morning the GDP numbers disappointed as well. Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%, following no …
December rate cut odds are ticking lower after Fed member warns of stagflation #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/QHlkPIADLo — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2025 Fed’s Logan: WE FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER INFLATION IS TOO HIGH INFLATION TAKING TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET We are being primed for no rate cut …
via James Hickman Protestant firebrand and political activist Hugh Latimer must have known he was risking his life when he stepped into the pulpit at St. Paul’s Cross on January 12, 1549. His sermon that Sunday morning was hardly religious in nature. Rather, Latimer publicly expressed the view– the deep, deep frustration– that nearly all Englishmen …
CEO confidence has slipped below the danger line, signaling what many already feel: Higher prices, slower growth, and fading optimism. With inflation rising and growth stalling, even corporate America sees the specter of 1970s-style stagflation returning… By Peter Reagan Heading into fall weather means lower temperatures in many parts of the U.S. Unfortunately, those lower …
via notayesmanseconomics Today has brought us up to date on the latest growth figures from the UK economy and they are something of a disappointment. Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in August 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in July 2025 (revised down from no growth in our previous bulletin) and …
That’s a big statement coming from a Fed official. If they’re floating the word ‘stagflation’ publicly, it’s likely already a concern behind closed doors — Intelligent Investor (@investigato89) October 7, 2025 We have been in it for a while now. pic.twitter.com/3maTW9JjH5 — Santi (@Sant102324) October 7, 2025 Oh my … Global yields set to explode. …
The U.S. shutdown adds fresh strain to an already unstable economy marked by stagflation and global uncertainty. While policymakers gamble with the dollar’s future, Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com reveals the stakes are much higher than we realize… By Brandon Smith The U.S. economy has been experiencing what I would call a form of “stasis” for …
**POWELL: "NO RISK-FREE PATH WITH TWO-SIDED RISKS" Powell is telling everyone we have stagflation. — JaguarAnalytics (@JaguarAnalytics) September 17, 2025 Ladies and Gentlemens, we have or very near peaked. https://t.co/E5cf64jOpW pic.twitter.com/Ua4JmsV9T9 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 18, 2025 Maybe if you included a "Slowdown" period…. Like 2007-09 or 2001? 😁 Macrobond's chart clearly show …
via notayesmanseconomics Today’s economic data for the UK opens by rather emphasising yesterday’s subject and why Prime Minister Kier Starmer is not only putting more emphasis on economic growth he is rather sidelining his Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June …
Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, former Lehman Brothers trader and senior executive, author and Founder of the Bear Traps Report https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ paid newsletter, Larry McDonald
Policymakers will face impossible choices between higher rates and economic collapse. Yes, and just imagine where the labor market would be if not for the enormous amounts of unsustainable, unproductive government (deficit) spending we have seen over the last several years.Source: CBO pic.twitter.com/L88y7EYmeX — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) September 5, 2025 Question: Who is going to …
Transports always lead. Dow Theory. The granddaddy of all technical market studies. The barometer of general business trends. Extremely concerning chart. Hope this helps. pic.twitter.com/uyIQY6zMac — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 4, 2025 And the tariffs haven’t even kicked in yet. Wait until that sticker shock kicks in. I really worry about the market through …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to dodge the collapse. This isn’t economics, it’s a knife in your back. Your money’s burning …
The jaws of stagflation are wide open, per Bloomberg byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Number of new U.S. businesses soars to highest level since 2007 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts “Most people I know starting businesses are doing it as side gigs because jobs don’t pay enough anymore for basic living. Myself included and burning at both ends.” Inflation or jobs: …
U.S. July CPI: Core Inflation Hits 3.1 Percent Year Over Year Headline CPI rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching expectations. Year-over-year inflation came in at 2.7 percent, just below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent month over month and 3.1 percent year over year, beating the 3.0 percent forecast. The Fed …
“The ISM Services prices paid index jumped to 69.9, signaling rising costs, while services employment fell to 46.4, indicating contraction in jobs.” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-services-activity-flatlined-july-ism-data-shows-2025-08-05/ “U.S. factory orders dropped 4.8% in July, matching forecasts but showing weakening manufacturing demand.” https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-factory-orders-drop-july-2025-08-04/ “Goldman Sachs reported a net downward revision of 258,000 jobs over May and June 2025, the largest …
“In a stagflation scenario, the risk is that rates will be higher for longer and credit losses will begin to accumulate, in particular for lenders to tech, growth, and VC, where borrowers are characterized by having no earnings and low coverage ratios.” Apollo Sadly, today's gap up in markets won't fix this. Per FDIC, the …
