Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
California farmers must destroy 420,000 peach trees after Del Monte closes its canneries and cancels more than $550 million in long-term contracts For many warm weather fruit lovers, the prospect of unlimited ripe and rosy peaches is mouth-watering. For Central California farmers, it’s more of a waking nightmare. To make ends meet, these farmers are …
Used car prices dropped again this month as more vehicles hit the market and demand cools. The average price is now down about 8 percent from last year’s peak. This is providing some relief for buyers who were priced out during the shortage. However, financing costs remain high due to elevated interest rates. Dealerships say …
Europe already canceling flights and gutting schedules as jet fuel turns very very tight. US next in line because record American exports leave domestic refiners fighting the same barrels. The CEO of Chevron just said it out loud. "We're starting to see risks of supply outages in some of these economies." Europe is already there. …
Notice, this never lasts. Homes are CURRENTLY priced at 2.75% mortgage rates. https://t.co/Qp5Z1P2x0l — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 2, 2026 We are living through one of the largest artificially inflated real estate bubbles in history. Zero rates. Massive stimulus. Record speculation. Now the unwind begins. pic.twitter.com/GldAUS1HeJ — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 3, 2026 Housing supply …
Trump Jr. and Eric Trump-linked investors reportedly bought into a shell entity tied to a Kazakh tungsten mining project That project is backed by up to $1.6B in U.S. government financing through export and development agencies The initial investment reportedly happened before full public disclosure of the merger structure Additional share purchases reportedly followed after …
Treasury Secretary warns Hormuz blockade threatens global food security… US Presidency of G20 pivots to “well-functioning” fertilizer supply chains… Move aims to isolate Iran as “enemy of the global south” over trade disruptions… Diplomatic cables: US seeks to prevent a “starvation winter” in emerging markets… https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0464 Chair’s Statement of the United States G20 Presidency April …
Multiple risk stack flagged, macro shock, private credit stress, AI valuation reset risk combined. Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy “The thing that really keeps me awake at night is the likelihood of a number of risks crystallising at the same time – a major macroeconomic …
https://x.com/dolfiniran/status/2044891352819781722 Factcheck: @dolfiniran is a legitimate Iranian account. It posts real-time Persian-language analysis of the Iran-Israel conflict and is widely reported in OSINT circles (including Drop Site News and others) as linked to advisors close to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Not an official regime handle, but treated as an insider source with apparent …
Current energy and food input spikes resemble 1970s oil shock conditions that drove broad inflation across global agriculture markets. 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Oil at $210 in Singapore. Fertilizer prices tripled. One rancher's feed bill jumped from $1,600 to $9,000. Former CIA officer Larry Johnson says the economic shockwave from this war hasn't even arrived yet. When …
by Doditty6567 People keep pointing to the front month of Brent being around 102 dollars and acting like the market has already priced this in and has it under control. I do not believe it does. To be precise, I do not believe in the screen price we are seeing. I am talking about the …
by Michael When global supply chains collapse, the pain is not felt immediately. Tankers that left their destinations before the war with Iran began are still arriving at their destinations, products that were manufactured prior to the war still fill our shelves, and we are still eating food that was produced last year. So even though …
WARNING: THE NEXT WEEK WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING! Goldman Sachs says the biggest oil supply shock in history has NOT hit the system yet. Read that again. THE BIGGEST OIL SUPPLY SHOCK IN HISTORY And markets are NOT pricing what comes next. That’s why this chart matters so much. Crude stocks still look fine. But oil …
Spring has sprung, which means seeds that were planted in late winter are starting to germinate. They’re hungry and will only grow to their full nutritional potential if they’re well fed. But that, apparently, isn’t happening, as fertilizer supplies are interrupted by yet another pointless Middle East war. The result? Global food shortages that might …
China supplies the magnets inside the Arrow interceptor that defends Tel Aviv. China supplies the BeiDou satellite navigation inside the Fattah-2 missile that attacks Tel Aviv. The same country made the sword and the shield. And today, that country is hosting the diplomat who wants to broker peace between the people swinging the sword and …
As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ https://t.co/cmZvbGqspf pic.twitter.com/GU4EJg2Hx6 — Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) March 30, 2026 Walmart recession signal on …
In case you haven't heard, the US and NATO are saying diddly squat about Ukraine's recent targeting of Russian oil and fertilizer facilities. That means they support fuel shortages and future food shortages. I wonder why? https://t.co/8UkSSmV122 — Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) March 29, 2026 BREAKING: Ukraine bombed Russia's 2nd largest oil refinery which produces jet …
Independent petrol stations begin to close instead of charging customers £2 a litre as supermarkets warn supply is 'tight' amidst Iran war https://t.co/N9grFUtPJq — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 28, 2026 Small petrol stations are being forced to close their pumps rather than charge £2 per litre as supermarkets warn of ‘tight’ supplies amid the war …
Originally published on my Substack. Fertilizer is getting stuck in transit, with shipments piling up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz and plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia shutting down or slowing while China restricts exports. Australian wheat farmers are planting less. U.S. corn and soy farmers are asking President Trump for …
🚨🌍 THE WORLD HAS 2–3 WEEKS BEFORE COLLAPSE Luke Gromen says supply chains are already cracking under pressure. He says if nothing changes, the global economy won’t hold much longer.@LukeGromen https://t.co/QYajJHCA85 pic.twitter.com/T4PyWG3vRl — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 26, 2026 Per Grok: If the US-Israel-Iran war extends another 2-3 weeks (now ~4 weeks in): – **Energy**: …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The Road to Housing Act by Senators Scott (R) and Warren (D) is seriously bad policy. 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Please note the Senate Passes Bipartisan Housing Bill Targeting Large Investors The Senate has passed the largest housing bill in decades — bipartisan legislation designed to improve housing …
US and Iran have signaled no quick end to their war, with Trump saying it was necessary to finish the job and Iran warning that the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel after striking tankers in Iraqi waters and near the vital Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/npBrNdfWJw — Lucas Webber (@LucasADWebber) March …
Breaking News: Thirty-two countries will release 400 million barrels of oil to help shore up global supply as the war with Iran rages on. https://t.co/H5l2ibXxKG — The New York Times (@nytimes) March 11, 2026 The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their …
by Michael What a wild week it has been already. On Sunday night, I watched as the price of oil hit $116 a barrel. It was insane. Financial markets started to panic all over the world because investors know that if the price of oil stays above $100 a barrel for an extended period of …
The Chinese stock market about to open on Monday when they find out their oil supply from Iran was just cutoff. pic.twitter.com/ja7Quc1Rqh — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) February 28, 2026 Paging the Petrodollar: Apparently China buys "over 90%" of Iran's oil exports. China was buying nearly 70% of Venezuela's. Neither were being paid in dollars …
BREAKING: 🚨 Federal Reserve purchases of short duration Treasury Bills now exceeds the height of the 2020 pandemic. Jerome Powell is currently holding $329B short duration T-Bills on the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding the previous crisis peak of $325B. This marks the first… https://t.co/fvDjn6VCQb pic.twitter.com/v4a9OZj3Zb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 27, 2026 Yup, REPO jumped to …
🚨 CRYPTO LIQUIDITY JUST HIT A LEVEL LAST SEEN DURING THE FTX COLLAPSE USDT supply has fallen over -$3B in 60 days — matching conditions near Bitcoin’s 2022 BOTTOM. When stablecoins supply shrink, it means investors are pulling capital out. But historically, these liquidity… pic.twitter.com/TD6f3fQR9G — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) February 23, 2026 Commercials are extremely …
Hence the high fuel prices in California. Closing California refineries. Lack of fuel pipelines. Lack of fuel storage. This leaves movement of massive fuel supplies by Jones Act tankers, which are also in short supply. California’s anti-carbon stance is coming home to roost. h/t JustmeTX
via notayesmanseconomics The twist and turns of economic activity so far in 2026 have impacted the Euro area but let me start with something that feels like the tide coming in. Put like that, it sounds like we are introducing the digital euro as a defensive measure against something or someone. That isn’t really correct. …
MAJOR SILVER ALERT: JP Morgan and TD Securities are warning of a massive $5+ billion silver sell-off during the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing period from January 8-14, 2026. This forced liquidation will dump approximately 13% of COMEX open interest in just two weeks. But here’s the twist: While Western index funds are forced to sell, …
