Oil $210 in Singapore fertilizer prices triple ranch feed costs rise $1,600 to $9,000 amid global supply spike; Europe has “maybe” 6 weeks of jet fuel left, IEA head says: AP

by

Current energy and food input spikes resemble 1970s oil shock conditions that drove broad inflation across global agriculture markets.



EUROPE FACES FUEL CRUNCH AS GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS DEEPENS

Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel left, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol, who warns flight cancellations could begin soon if oil flows remain disrupted by the Iran war.

Birol described the situation as the most severe energy crisis ever, driven by blocked supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. He cautioned that prolonged disruption will slow global growth and drive up inflation.

The immediate effects: higher fuel, gas, and electricity prices.

The hardest hit will be developing nations—particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America—while major Asian economies like Japan, China, India, and South Korea are already on the front line. Europe and the Americas are expected to feel the impact next.


New York Fed President Williams worries war will slow growth, aggravate inflation

New York Fed President John Williams expressed concern Thursday about the Iran war’s impact on the economy, saying it already has shown signs of hiking prices and slowing growth.

In a speech delivered to bankers in his home district, Williams noted that the conflict has “intensified the uncertainty” around national and local conditions.

While he generally expressed confidence that growth would continue and inflation would ease through the year, he said there are threats to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate for stable prices and low unemployment.

“Assuming energy supply disruptions ease reasonably soon, energy prices should come down, and these effects should partially reverse later this year,” Williams said. “However, the conflict could also result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation — through a surge in intermediate costs and commodity prices — and dampens economic activity. This has begun to play out already.”

Such a condition — slow growth and high prices — is commonly referred to as stagflation and presents a toxic mix for central bank policymakers who would be left to choose which side to prioritize.