Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
WE HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS BROKE… Searches for ‘can’t pay credit card’ smash records… 11% of accounts now seriously delinquent… Savings rate vanishes… 🚨 Americans have never been this broke before. Google searches for “can’t pay credit card” just hit an all time high. At the same time, US consumer confidence has collapsed to one …
The 1973 stock market crash didn’t happen during the oil embargo, it happened in the 6 months after it was lifted. pic.twitter.com/xjyxXHUnxX — NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) May 2, 2026 Late February 2026 strikes hit Iran → Iran squeezes the Strait of Hormuz → ~20% of global oil flow gets choked in real time That instantly removes …
America hasn’t even felt the full hit from the US and Israel conflict with Iran yet. AMERICA HAS NOT YET FELT THE FULL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE U.S.–ISRAEL WAR WITH IRAN, BUT THE PAIN IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY SOON RISING OIL PRICES, SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, AND HIGHER INPUT COSTS ARE ALREADY BUILDING PRESSURE THAT COULD …
30-year yield at 5% is not the real shock on its own The persistence above 4.5% is the part markets keep underestimating In 2000 the 30-year sat around 6.5% at peaks But US debt levels were nowhere near today’s ~$1.9T deficit scale Now the rate is lower, but the debt base is vastly larger That …
Total Personal Outlays jump $195B in single month as utility and fuel bills spike… Savings Rate craters to 3.6%; consumers “burning through” cash to maintain lifestyle… Wall Street Reacts: Nasdaq futures drop 200 points on “Higher for Much Longer” reality… Bond Market Carnage: 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4.85% as “Pivot” narrative dies… Stats from today’s …
Live recession oddshttps://t.co/yvED3yZNF6 — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) April 26, 2026 Grok: Accurate per the American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey (April 3-11, 2026; 5,700+ farmers). 70% say they can’t afford all the fertilizer needed this season due to price spikes. Many plan to cut rates or acres, risking lower 2026 yields. South hit hardest (78%). Full report: …
Current energy and food input spikes resemble 1970s oil shock conditions that drove broad inflation across global agriculture markets. 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Oil at $210 in Singapore. Fertilizer prices tripled. One rancher's feed bill jumped from $1,600 to $9,000. Former CIA officer Larry Johnson says the economic shockwave from this war hasn't even arrived yet. When …
Mortgage rates moved even higher again last week, as the war with Iran continues to stoke fears of inflation. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell again, down 10.4% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan …
Rising oil prices won't cause higher inflation. More expensive oil means Americans will have less money to spend on other things. Reduced spending will cause a recession, which will result in larger budget deficits, rate cuts, and QE. That's what will cause higher inflation. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 23, 2026 They are shorting crude …
‼️ FERTILIZER PRICES NOW AT NEAR 4 YEAR HIGH—UP 44%. FOOD INFLATION IS COMING – 30% world’s fertilizer supply & 20% oil supply goes thru Hormuz. – It’s planting season now: Rising fuel & fertilizer costs will reverberate through economy & be felt in grocery stores this summer. pic.twitter.com/1pYuYw1fkp — Maine (@TheMaineWonk) March 22, 2026 …
I am speechless. Trump brought prices down for a yearthen managed to spike it up by 100% in 2 months pic.twitter.com/GxjCvpUbze — Prof (@TheProfInvestor) March 19, 2026 Amid all this turbulence in Hormuz, the Fed kept its dot plot intact, which only underscores the point I have made all week, that Powell is not keen …
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/xiba9GU3z2 — Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March 17, 2026 The market is green today and nobody's talking about the sector that refused …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
The G7 is discussing a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, potentially organized by the International Energy Agency. With about 1.2 billion barrels held across G7 reserves, the move aims to quickly cool oil prices. The market reacted immediately, with crude falling back to around $100 per barrel on the …
U.S. crude oil broke $90 per barrel Friday after President Donald Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged war that will cause a cascading disruption to global oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate futures were last up 11.27% to $90.14 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was 8.09% higher at $92.32. U.S. …
@khamenei_ir , you have been warned 🍕 https://t.co/S6pAdaoQjg — Pentagon Pizza Watch (@pizzintwatch) January 5, 2026
by Martin Armstrong Birthrates are rapidly declining across the West primarily due to economic factors. Over 163 million new lives emerged in 2025, far surpassing the 63 million deaths. The countries with the least tend to produce the most children. Over the past year, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, and Somalia all experienced population growths …
Gold didn’t jump to $4,530 on panic or headlines – it moved because currencies are quietly failing worldwide. Now silver is following. As governments debate gold audits and analysts forecast $100 silver, the real story is simpler – and harder to admit… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important developments …
Bond markets do not scream unless something is wrong. Japan cracking at a 26 year high while France and Germany follow is not a coincidence. This is the cost of pretending debt did not matter for a decade. Once the bond vigilantes wake up, they do not go back to sleep easily. https://twitter.com/GordianKnotFinX/status/2002947193347658025 Gold hits …
US mass layoff warnings are rising at a concerning pace: 39,006 Americans were given advance layoff notice in October, the 2nd-highest since the 2020 pandemic. These notices are issued under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, which obligates covered employers to provide at least 60 days of notice before a mass layoff or …
00:00 Corporate Bankruptcies Surge 44% Higher Than Long Term Average 09:47 National Debt Just Surpassed 38 Trillion 15:39 Target Announces Largest Layoff in Over a Decade 18:23 Costco Groupon Pays You To Shop There Corporate bankruptcies have been skyrocketing to the highest levels that we have seen since 2005 and I’ve been running over 40% …
by Michael When three thugs in Halloween masks terrorized a family in northern Virginia a few days ago, it was a sign that Halloween crime season is off to an early start this year.  Once we get to the evening of October 31st, you will want to make sure that your home is both occupied and …
Margin debt is rising at a rate last seen before major bear markets and market CRASHES: Margin debt jumped 6.3%, or $67 billion, in September to a record $1.13 TRILLION. Investor leverage has surged 39% since April, marking the biggest 5-month spike since the late-2021 market frenzy. In the past, similar margin debt spikes have …
The Chief of Staff of the French Army stated forces must be ready as early as tonight for high intensity warfare. Wow. — WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) October 1, 2025 The French military have boarded the Russian shadow fleet tanker Boracay. The vessel is suspected to have been involved in hostile actions towards French Security. pic.twitter.com/Gl0ZQt33EL — …
Globally, the price of silver is experiencing a 'spike event'. pic.twitter.com/3Ou3spsVc7 — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) September 26, 2025 Can someone please tell Silver to slow down. I need to find more things to buy. Any silver juniors I should be looking at? pic.twitter.com/dOvoyZbD3v — Mr. Uppy (@MisterUppy) September 26, 2025 Silver – 'Beast Mode' update… https://t.co/hdUDOYR7Y8 …
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
Holy. Shit. Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion. The US economy is running HOT. pic.twitter.com/aDQHxtq4iY — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 16, 2025 For the rate of inflation to be dropping (LOL Trump) or even flat during this time frame tells you that consumption has completely evaporated. It …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The CPI was up more than expected in August. Food played a role. The BLS CPI report for August shows the price of food and beverages jumped 0.5 percent with food at home rising 0.6 percent. Six CPI Food Categories Month-Over-Month CPI Food Category Month-Over-Month Details Food and Beverage: …
The wave is rising. Quietly. Relentlessly. California isn’t screaming about it yet. The hospitals aren’t overflowing. Not yet. But the signals are screaming. Wastewater is saturated. Emergency rooms are ticking upward. The machinery of public health is pivoting back to pandemic posture. No press conference. No alarm bells. Just masks. Quietly reappearing. “California currently has …
Student loan interest resumes today for nearly 8 million borrowers enrolled in Biden’s SAVE plan. The temporary 0% interest waiver expired August 1, after being quietly applied last year following legal scrutiny of the plan’s funding structure. Borrowers will now see interest pile on top of balances again. According to the Education Department, “Borrowers should …