Nearly 40,000 Americans got advance layoff warnings in October, a 162 percent spike. The 12 month average just hit 2008 levels

US mass layoff warnings are rising at a concerning pace:

39,006 Americans were given advance layoff notice in October, the 2nd-highest since the 2020 pandemic.

These notices are issued under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, which obligates covered employers to provide at least 60 days of notice before a mass layoff or plant closing.

This marks a +162% spike since August, when 14,900 Americans received such notice.

Since 2006, WARN notices have only been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020, and May 2025.

As a result, the 12-month average rose to 26,927, matching levels seen in 2008.

More mass layoffs are coming.

At the start of the week, Goldman’s top consumer specialist Scott Feiler pointed out this would be a “very important week” for earnings across the consumer sector. Home Depot set the tone on Tuesday by cutting its full-year outlook as big-ticket spending and home-renovation demand continue to fade. Now, the next major earnings report just hit the tape, and it’s delivering another clear signal of softening trends.

Target slashed the top end of its 2025 profit outlook amid softening demand, heavy markdowns, and uneven traffic, which continue to plague its turnaround strategy.

Adjusted EPS is now forecasted at $7 to $8 for the year, trimming the prior $7 to $9 range. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate stood at $7.29.

Full-Year Outlook Adjusted

EPS: $7–$8 (prior: $7–$9; BBG Consensus: $7.29)
Q3 Takeaway: Results reflected consumer softness, weaker comps, declining traffic, margin pressure, and elevated costs. While EPS printed slightly ahead of consensus, the key retail metric of comparable sales fell more sharply than expected.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-home-depot-now-target-reports-soft-demand