China is winning the inflation war but losing the consumption battle

The Chinese industrial machine is running on overdrive while the local consumer remains trapped in a deflationary hole

Notayesmanseconomics notes industrial input prices jumped 5.8 percent year on year while consumer goods prices fell 0.8 percent

This is a classic mercantilist trap where the export machine is hyper-efficient but the internal economy is hollow

Beijing is trying to rebalance toward consumption but they are failing

Lower house prices are doing the exact opposite of what the central planners wanted

The housing bubble burst is actively sucking the life out of domestic demand despite desperate stimulus attempts

China has successfully offloaded its excess industrial capacity onto the world while keeping its own people on a starvation diet of spending

It is not rebalancing

It is just a modern version of the Japanese stagnation model but with more iron and less sushi