Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Recession signals are flashing while government gobbles a record share of the entire economy. The US government has never consumed a larger share of the economy than it does today. pic.twitter.com/lKtm7dzHIm — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 21, 2026 When CPI rate > Unemployment rate with a yield curve inversion it tends to lead to recession. …
The Chinese industrial machine is running on overdrive while the local consumer remains trapped in a deflationary hole Notayesmanseconomics notes industrial input prices jumped 5.8 percent year on year while consumer goods prices fell 0.8 percent This is a classic mercantilist trap where the export machine is hyper-efficient but the internal economy is hollow Beijing …
The real story here is not “recession fears.” The real story is that institutions, markets, and even consumers are starting to quietly admit something much darker: The modern economy increasingly survives through financial insulation, debt tolerance, asset inflation, and delayed recognition of losses rather than broad based prosperity. That is the connective tissue running through …
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on tariffs: "It's not regressive. Most consumption in America is done by the wealthiest people. So the idea it's somehow regressive is just wrong." pic.twitter.com/tL25CBE7zn — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 22, 2026
Perfect storm for lower demand: less socializing, pot and gummies replacing it, GLP-1s reducing appetite for everything, Covid leaving some people unable to process it — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) February 19, 2026 GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are being linked to significant reductions in alcohol consumption It’s not just food — weight-loss drugs have seen some users …
Ron DeSantis: We’re finding things in Baby Formula like LEAD “at levels that are not good for human consumption” • 16 out of 24 formulas contained elevated levels of one or more heavy metals exceeding federal benchmarks • The heavy metals tested for and detected included arsenic, mercury, lead, and cadmium. —— Mercury was noted …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought an update for my main economic theme for China. New home prices fell 0.4 per cent month on month on average across 70 cities, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The decline eased slightly from a 0.5 per cent fall in October, but …
by Anonymous Coward US consumer sentiment is collapsing: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.3 points in November, to 50.3, the 2nd-lowest in history. This significantly missed expectations of 53.0 points and marks the 4th consecutive monthly decline. Current conditions… pic.twitter.com/1htEqmvRsu — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 8, 2025 Everyone is figuring out …
Household savings collapsed from a 32% pandemic peak to near 3%, leaving consumption far more exposed to wages and credit. byu/MonetaryCommentary inEconomyCharts The U.S. personal saving rate hovered around 7% during the 2010-2020 period, as households maintained a steady buffer of disposable income. But the sudden shock of Covid‑19 and accompanying shutdowns sent the rate …
Corporate profits demand that suburban consumers subsidize the huge energy consumption of AI data centers byu/Boo_Randy_II ininflation
For those who struggle to understand what’s happening here, what the original “ AI cartel” $MSFT – $NVDA is trying to achieve is to attract Lenders so debt can be raised to purchase GPUs ( $NBIS will try to use this contract as a guarantee). I wonder whether they are finally… https://t.co/1zXQ9oQbZI — JustDario 🏊♂️ …
Cold beer on a Friday night? Maybe non-alcoholic. Only 54% of drinking-age Americans consume alcohol today, according to a recent poll from Gallup, the lowest proportion since the survey began in 1939. Even those who do drink are partaking less, by a factor of nearly half. The US is drinking less, and cultural connotations around alcohol …
They never meant for you to understand the tax code. That’s not a flaw. That’s the feature. It’s a system designed to keep ordinary people tangled in forms, deadlines, and fear, while the powerful move quietly through loopholes, shelters, and carveouts you’ll never see. The Internal Revenue Service stands like a monument to this engineered …
via notayesmanseconomics We can start our look at China and its economy via this morning’s update on what is happening with inflation there. BEIJING, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) — China’s consumer prices gained mild growth in July as the domestic consumer demand continued to expand, official data showed Friday. The consumer price index (CPI), a main …
https://t.co/XRQyFT6twm — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) June 23, 2024
Simply put, China’s economic recovery has been unbalanced. As Bloomberg reports, manufacturing is holding up, thanks to resilient overseas demand and Beijing’s efforts to cushion the blow from US trade restrictions by developing advanced technologies at home. But Chinese consumers have been slow to recover their appetite for spending, amid a prolonged real estate downturn …
Inflation seems to be spiraling out of control, with ominous warnings of 8% interest rates and rising gold consumption. Just think. Three months ago the street saw 6 rate cuts coming in 2024 😂 8% interest rates would put mortgage rates over 10% 💀 pic.twitter.com/KHsKDic2sc — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 9, 2024 Interest Rates could …
2/4Lower deposit rates may be justified, given low and negative inflation, but their impact on Chinese consumption is complex. On the one hand, they may encourage Chinese households to save less out of current income, although this depends on their saving targets. — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) December 22, 2023 4/4The best way to redirect demand …
The German economy faces increasing challenges as the latest data reveals a decline in private consumption and a drop in the IFO business confidence index. With household consumption decreasing and trade numbers showing a slump, Germany grapples with economic headwinds that contribute to a 3.8% year-on-year contraction in industrial performance. German Economy’s Downturn Driven by …
China’s economic landscape appears fraught with concerns as the rebound in consumption stalls and private business confidence loses momentum. In October, key indicators like the QuantCube Technology recreation and transport demand measure and the Morning Consult consumer sentiment survey recorded troubling declines. Furthermore, the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business poll echoed this sentiment, indicating …
The rich plan to continue spending on travel and luxury, while the middle classes seem increasingly reluctant. This doesn't bode well for consumption next year.https://t.co/IywHj5UVtZ via @economics — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) September 26, 2023
Banks are tightening lending standards consistent with levels that have ALWAYS led to a recession Buckle up pic.twitter.com/OjXqe4OpZN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1698498854453227530 The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/zEEaqCMETP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023
via naturalnews: The notion of an electric vehicle (EV) has been around longer than the gasoline automobile, but is yet to be adopted with wide acceptance. It has been an area of debate in the auto industry for as long as anyone can remember, says Travis Okulski, an editor at Road & Track. On paper, …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/snapshot/Snapshot_July2023.pdf Overview of the July 2023 Snapshot GDP growth slowed: Q1 GDP was about .5% below what it would been if since Q42019, it grew at a rate close to long-term forecasts. Consumer real spending on services up 2.6%—still greater then 2%… Average hourly earnings up 4.4% in June. The employment-to-population ratio for …
UPI reported: The Biden administration has announced plans to continue its reduction of hydrofluorocarbons, releasing a new rule that aims to cut the United States’ use of the greenhouse gases by almost half starting next year. Hydrofluorocarbon is a category of greenhouse gases used for refrigeration and air-conditioning as well as in a number of other …
