The Conference Board’s latest index dropped to 93.1 in May, a clear sign that shoppers are feeling the pinch.
Consumers cited soaring prices at the gas pump and grocery checkout as the primary drivers of their sour mood.
Mentions of war and geopolitics in the survey hit new highs, signaling deep anxiety over the Middle East.
The Present Situation Index hit a three-month low, showing that the labor market’s plentiful days are cooling off.
Only 25.5% of consumers now say jobs are “plentiful,” down from 26.9% in April.
Analysts warn that the disconnect between record stock markets and household sentiment is becoming dangerous.
Total U.S. M2 money supply clocked in at $22.80 trillion for April, confirming steady growth in circulating cash.
Despite high interest rates, the liquidity spigot remains wide open, fueling asset price inflation.
This represents a change of 0.53% from March, keeping liquidity well above the $21.90 trillion mark seen one year ago.
Critics argue that the persistent liquidity is why the Fed is failing to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
There is a direct correlation between this M2 expansion and the S&P 500’s recent record-breaking streak.
If the Fed drains liquidity too fast, the market rally likely collapses instantly.
Fed officials are privately fretting that five years of above-target inflation has unmoored public expectations.
Tom Barkin and others are questioning if the cumulative impact of multiple inflation waves is changing human behavior.
Real wage growth is stalling, and the era of easy, debt-fueled consumer spending is hitting a wall.
Companies are seeing profits peak, yet supply chain risks are higher than they were at the start of 2026.
The Fed remains in a data-dependent holding pattern, trapped between growth and runaway prices.
Expect even more aggressive rhetoric on long-term inflation expectations in the next FOMC meeting.
The Fed is like a driver who lost his brakes five miles ago.
Middle East tensions are acting as a permanent volatility tax on the U.S. dollar.
When Iran talks heat up, the dollar spikes; when peace talk emerges, the dollar dumps.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate choke point for global energy prices and currency stability.
SIPRI reports that global peacekeeping capacity is down 17%, leaving the world’s trade lanes vulnerable.
Investors are finding it impossible to price in peace given the current chaotic global landscape.
Every geopolitical headline is now an instant algorithm-driven move for the dollar.