The inflation slowdown is starting to unravel

by

Gains, Pains & Capital argues Fed policy never eliminated inflation, only displaced it across categories and time

Official CPI down from peak levels, but housing still elevated

Insurance costs remain one of the fastest rising major expense categories

Federal interest expense rising above $1T annually, adding fiscal pressure into price structure

Higher rates increasing debt servicing burden across government and private sector

Energy volatility still feeding delayed pass-through into services inflation

Core goods easing while services remain sticky across multiple categories

Gap widening between reported CPI and actual cost burden at household level

Markets increasingly questioning whether disinflation was a peak phase or temporary pause

The Cost Of The Grain That Feeds Half The World Just Posted Biggest Monthly Surge Since 2008

“Asian rice prices logged their biggest monthly gain in nearly two decades in May, as a Gulf energy shock collides with an expected El Niño event later this year. The spike adds to the mounting risks of a broader food price shock that could emerge as soon as six months from now.

Any time rice prices spike, it is a major concern because the grain feeds more than half the world’s population, estimated at 3.5 to 4 billion people.

Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surged 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, according to Bloomberg. Chicago rice futures rose 15% last month.”