Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Three million middle class homeowners are at risk of having their savings wiped out by the recent surge in mortgage costs, a leading think-tank has warned. Analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests 2.9 middle middle income mortgage holders would have to raid their savings or ask for help to meet an unexpected …
Source: Wolf Street h/t BoatSurfer600
Last year, the Biden administration claimed two quarter of negative GDP didn’t mean we are in recession. Their argument was that other data like GDO (Gross Domestic Output) were still positive. We are in a recession based on the definition they used last year. https://t.co/KGEtHpXaZr pic.twitter.com/Ffvf516XyR — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 16, 2023 U.S. …
by confoundedinterest17 61% of Bloomberg terminal respondents (including me, by the way) see Fed hikes leading to recession. Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession. Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to …
by BoatSurfer600 June 14 (Reuters) – Canadian media and telecom firm Bell is cutting 1,300 jobs, shuttering six radio stations and selling another three as revenues dry up at its legacy phone and news business, parent company BCE Inc (BCE.TO) said on Wednesday. The layoffs will mostly affect management and follow thousands of cuts in …
via naturalnews: Americans are pulling hundreds of billions of dollars out of banks at the fastest pace in nearly 39 years as many economic experts are beginning to predict a repeat of the 2008 “Great Recession.” According to an analysis of the most recent data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), “depositors took a total of $472 billion out …
Bond Investors Say a “Nasty” Recession in the U.S. Is Inevitable According to some of the world’s biggest bond managers from Fidelity International to Allianz Global Investors, the United States is heading for a recession. They’re sticking to their forecasts for a downturn that is “inevitable” and advise hedging any bets on risk assets. “Something …
by 36Taylor36 I live in western ny and just visited my sister camping in a rural poor area and its $75 a day to camp there (normal price is like $45) and the sites were packed almost full. People somehow still have money when we have had inflation for 2 years. I don’t get it, …
Popeyes, Chick-fil-A, and other fast food chains are facing financial challenges due to lower sales, higher costs, and supply chain disruptions. Popeyes is closing locations and Chick-fil-A is closing its first-ever restaurant. With Americans eating out increasingly less to save on costs, some of the biggest fast-food chains in the US are taking desperate measures …
by PrisonForYourMind A recession used to be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This happened last year. However, the elites did not call it a recession because there was low unemployment rate. Some of the usual warning sighs of a recession have been flashing throughout the past year. We’ve had yield curve …
by Chris Black Are you tired of winning, Europoors? THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS: The euro zone entered into a mild recession in 1Q 2023, as revised data showed a 0.1% q-on-q contraction during the period, following an also 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. https://t.co/f2vULHAcIY — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 8, 2023 This is …
Early signs of cooling labor market. Might take time, but its happening.$TLT and $GLD back in action. Also closely look at the steepening of curve, that is the most important thing to watch now. pic.twitter.com/P52O05Lisu — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 8, 2023 US jobless claims mysteriously surge upon "data" revision US jobs mysteriously revised …
The eurozone contracted for two consecutive quarters, data out Thursday shows, meaning it has entered a technical recession, signaling a loss of growth momentum in the single currency area buffeted by energy shocks, war, inflation, and monetary tightening. Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1 percent over the first three months of 2023 compared with the previous …
by FATPEPPAPIGGAMER420 It looks like the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity is inching closer to an inverted yield curve. This typically happens before a recession, so the Fed may start cutting rates soon.
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf Highlights: New orders for manufactured goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $2.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $577.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent March increase. Shipments, down five of the last six months, decreased $2.5 billion or 0.4 percent to …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-the-full-employment-recession-bc9937a5 Federal Reserve Alert! Get ready for a new ‘recession’ definition! From today’s Fed beige book – May 31, 2023: “Demand for transportation services was down, especially in trucking, where contacts reported there was a “freight recession.”” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook20230531.htm Overall Economic Activity Economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. …
by BoatSurfer600 Some of the countries in Europe whose economies have a high share of manufacturing are witnessing enormous contraction in cyclical activity. Higher interest rates are taking a toll on economic activity. Source: Sagar Singh LinkedIn With China's economy being pulled into the global recession and with no real way to escape from it, …
by watifurdadpulledout I know the Fed has loaded its chamber with 5.25% of interest rate hike and maybe 50bps more are coming over the next couple months. But the Core Inflation rate is still at 5.25%. The last CPI came in at 4.9% and is not going down to 2% anytime soon. If anything summer …
via naturalnews: Germany, home to Europe’s biggest economy, has now fallen into a recession as consumer spending drops in the wake of higher energy prices. During the first quarter of the year, the company’s GDP dropped by 0.3 percent, following a contraction of 0.5 percent during the last quarter of 2022. This meant Germany met …
Top Chart: Over the past +50 years, the inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. recession (there have been no false indicators or exceptions to this rule). The 8 recessions …
