New orders for manufactured goods increased, breaking ‘Full-Employment Recession’ narrative.

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by Dismal-Jellyfish

www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

Highlights:

  • New orders for manufactured goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $2.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $577.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today.
    • This followed a 0.6 percent March increase.
  • Shipments, down five of the last six months, decreased $2.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $572.3 billion.
    • This followed a 0.6 percent March decrease.
  • Unfilled orders, up four of the last five months, increased $10.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $1,291.3 billion.
    • This followed a 0.4 percent March increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.71, up from 6.60 in March.
  • Inventories, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $4.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $856.7 billion.
    • This followed a 0.8 percent March decrease.
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.50, up from 1.48 in March.

New Orders:

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $3.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $282.8 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase.
  • This followed a 3.3 percent March increase.
  • Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, drove the increase, $3.5 billion or 3.7 percent to $97.7 billion.
  • New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $294.7 billion.

Shipments:

  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, down two of the last three months, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $277.6 billion, unchanged from the previously published decrease. This followed a 0.7 percent March increase.
  • Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $1.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $87.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $294.7 billion.
  • This followed a 1.8 percent March decrease. Food products, down two consecutive months, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $79.8 billion.
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Unfilled Orders:

  • Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $10.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $1,291.3 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.4 percent March increase.
  • Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $10.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $792.4 billion.

Inventories:

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $5.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $521.8 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase.
    • This followed a 1.0 percent March decrease.
  • Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $5.1 billion or 3.2 percent to $164.1 billion.
  • Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down five of the last six months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $334.9 billion.
    • This followed a 0.7 percent March decrease.
  • Petroleum and coal products, also down five of the last six months, led the decrease, $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $46.8 billion.
  • By stage of fabrication, April materials and supplies increased 0.3 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.6 percent in nondurable goods.
  • Work in process increased 2.5 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.4 percent in nondurable goods.
  • Finished goods increased 0.1 percent in durable and were virtually unchanged in nondurable goods.
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TLDRS:

  • New orders for manufactured goods rose by $2.6 billion or 0.4% in April to $577.5 billion, marking an increase for four out of the last five months.
    • This follows a 0.6% increase in March.
  • Shipments of manufactured goods fell by $2.5 billion or 0.4% to $572.3 billion in April, marking a decrease for five of the last six months.
    • This follows a 0.6% decrease in March.
  • Unfilled orders for manufactured goods increased by $10.4 billion or 0.8% to $1,291.3 billion in April, marking an increase for four of the last five months.
    • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio rose to 6.71 from 6.60 in March.
  • Inventories of manufactured goods increased by $4.2 billion or 0.5% to $856.7 billion in April, following two consecutive months of decrease.
    • The inventories-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.50 from 1.48 in March.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods rose by $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $282.8 billion in April, marking two consecutive months of increase.
    • The rise was driven by transportation equipment, up by $3.5 billion or 3.7% to $97.7 billion.
  • Meanwhile, shipments of manufactured durable goods fell by $2.1 billion or 0.7% to $277.6 billion in April, with transportation equipment leading the decrease.
  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods rose by $5.1 billion or 1.0% to $521.8 billion in April, again driven by transportation equipment which increased by $5.1 billion or 3.2% to $164.1 billion.
    • Conversely, inventories of nondurable goods fell by $1.0 billion or 0.3% to $334.9 billion in April.
  • It looks like the data is already breaking ‘Full-Employment Recession’ narrative.
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