A hub for independent voices and hard truths
by InternationalTop2405 It’s no surprise that the search term “recession” has spiked in recent years, as the global economy has taken a turn for the worse. What is surprising, however, is how much interest there is in this topic from …
via JOHN RUBINO: Rising interest rates don’t hit everything all at once. Some sectors feel the pinch immediately while others keep chugging along, seemingly oblivious to tightening money. But eventually, the pain spreads far enough to hurt and/or scare everyone, …
And make no mistake: we're in the depths of a violent freight recession… turning Yellow back on to a sustainable level is the equivalent of trying to restart a modern day nuclear reactor using cold fusion. https://t.co/dcW1k7RFXQ — Steve from …
Millennials are beating baby boomers and Gen X-ers when it comes to investing in gold, according to State Street. Demand for the precious metal, widely regarded as a safe haven asset, remains strong as recession risks loom. Gold has rallied …
by Cautious_Kamakazi The largest banks in the US are reportedly taking big hits to their bottom line as borrowers default on billions of dollars worth of loans. Citing data compiled by Bloomberg, the Financial Times says that JPMorgan Chase, Bank …
by uslvdslv Key Takeaways: 1) Seven of the last eight recessions have started within the +/-1 Sigma birthing zone, which we just entered on July 20th, 2023. The only recession that started outside of this zone did so less than …
This chart is FASCINATING! Corporates have seen NET INTEREST payments fall bc they fixed debt when rates were low (2020/21) and now are benefitting from higher rates on their cash. A reason why higher interest rates slow to drive a …
by InternationalTop2405 U.S. leading economic indicators for June -0.70% M/M & -7.82% Y/Y.
Warning: The probability of a recession is at its highest level since the early 1980s pic.twitter.com/1XmuWtjmdW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 Business inventories are a leading indicator of inflation A continued decline in inventories indicates lower inflation However, …
This Will Send the Economy Spiraling into a Deep Recession (And How the Fed Will Make it Worse)
Here’s an easier chart. EVERY recession since 1969 has had same indicator. We had it again. When? 2/10 yield curve hit peak inversion (a 40+ yr high) in March. History says recession 6-9 mos after. Since March data says recession …
by confoundedinterest17 To quote Bill Paxton’s character from Twister: “It’s Already Here!” The feared recession, that is. The year-over-year growth rate in Household Net Worth has been negative for 3 consecutive quarters, the worst growth since The Great Recession and Financial …
452k additional part-time jobs from economic reasons:“partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions…"More people are trying to get full-time jobs at same time businesses are cutting them… …
“Back in 2017 when the Fed Balance sheet was $4.5 trillion … this was their forecast going forward, shrinking the balance sheet to $2 trillion by 2022. Instead we are at $8.3 trillion today. With the US govt running deficits …
IMF worries inflation can't be stopped pic.twitter.com/TE6PwuvYFj — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) July 6, 2023 Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gets right to the point in her speech: “I remain very concerned about whether inflation will return to target …
via Ronni Stoeferle It is considered the most anticipated recession of all time – the one looming in the US. And although countless indicators ranging from the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) and PMIs to producer prices and international trade …
by Reduntu Recessions Shaded. Red line is current status, +30% YoY What are continued claims? Each week, the government releases a count of how many unemployed people continued to claim unemployment insurance for another week. When this number increases, it means …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Globalization and financialization have fueled the global economy for 40 years. Now they’re in the decline phase of the S-Curve. Does anyone benefit from a deep, prolonged global recession? Perhaps not in absolute terms, but …
The third OPEC+ oil cut. Oil ended down on the news. Sign of an extremely weak global economy. pic.twitter.com/Ic3kgQWpFf — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 3, 2023 Optimism around the Chinese consumer has faded following the re-opening A weakening Chinese economy is …
Banks would lose $541 billion in ‘hard landing’ contingency: Fed The Federal Reserve said Thursday that banks are well capitalized enough to endure a severe recession but stand to lose $541 billion if the economy heads south. The findings came …
“The smart people have already paid the tab and gone home The remainder will wake up tomorrow with regrets” Don’t see a Recession? It’s Last Call at the bar The smart people have already paid the tab and gone home …
“If the economy is re heating and we are avoiding a recession then inflation will also re heat and they will raise more and we will still end up in a recession. Yes, it is that simple.” If the economy …
Photo by Howtogoto From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group Time to batten down the hatches, folks. That warning comes from HSBC Asset Management earlier this week. It could be a long recession, too. It’s not that surprising, once you take the highlights of …
COMMODITIES: for those of you struggling to "see" the Global Industrial Recession we're already in… This Asset Class has crashed -22% from its Cycle Peak in #Quad4 pic.twitter.com/SU9VhuiOqQ — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) June 28, 2023 2/ China's annual exports indicate …
“We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024” The probability of a recession has skyrocketed to levels last seen in the 1980s We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024 …
Weekly data for corporate bankruptcy filings has started to meaningfully deteriorate in recent weeks: Apollo’s Torsten Slok 🤔 What happens to firms that don't generate enough $ to cover interest payments, when they are unable to refinance their junk in …
“The German Yield Curve is the mot inverted its been in over 31 years. This may signal an impending recession. Also the German economy: -6.1% Inflation -Contraction in PMI from May to June -GDP forecasted to fall in Q2” Source: …
Three million middle class homeowners are at risk of having their savings wiped out by the recent surge in mortgage costs, a leading think-tank has warned. Analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests 2.9 middle middle income mortgage …
