Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
OK, now that this chart has triggered Recession Deniers who wouldn't know The Cycle if it punched them in the face… here's the entire historical time-series, including, the IP Recession we entered in June How much lower from here? A: No one knows. But it's not stopping today pic.twitter.com/gcvashiaPt — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) July 26, …
by InternationalTop2405 It’s no surprise that the search term “recession” has spiked in recent years, as the global economy has taken a turn for the worse. What is surprising, however, is how much interest there is in this topic from around the world. People are clearly worried about their financial future and are looking for …
via JOHN RUBINO: Rising interest rates don’t hit everything all at once. Some sectors feel the pinch immediately while others keep chugging along, seemingly oblivious to tightening money. But eventually, the pain spreads far enough to hurt and/or scare everyone, which brings on the cycle-ending recession and bear market. That day is getting closer, as …
And make no mistake: we're in the depths of a violent freight recession… turning Yellow back on to a sustainable level is the equivalent of trying to restart a modern day nuclear reactor using cold fusion. https://t.co/dcW1k7RFXQ — Steve from 🌎 (@SteveT313) July 24, 2023 Even if the Teamsters and Yellow come to an agreement, …
Millennials are beating baby boomers and Gen X-ers when it comes to investing in gold, according to State Street. Demand for the precious metal, widely regarded as a safe haven asset, remains strong as recession risks loom. Gold has rallied almost 9% year-to-date, and is approaching the key $2,000 per ounce mark. Buying gold isn’t …
by Cautious_Kamakazi The largest banks in the US are reportedly taking big hits to their bottom line as borrowers default on billions of dollars worth of loans. Citing data compiled by Bloomberg, the Financial Times says that JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America (BofA), Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley appear to have written …
by uslvdslv Key Takeaways: 1) Seven of the last eight recessions have started within the +/-1 Sigma birthing zone, which we just entered on July 20th, 2023. The only recession that started outside of this zone did so less than 3 months above this zone. 2) The projected start date of the next recession is …
This chart is FASCINATING! Corporates have seen NET INTEREST payments fall bc they fixed debt when rates were low (2020/21) and now are benefitting from higher rates on their cash. A reason why higher interest rates slow to drive a #recession. Thoughts @KeithMcCullough? pic.twitter.com/Ulm9RK2ch7 — Enrique Abeyta (@enriqueabeyta) July 22, 2023
by InternationalTop2405 U.S. leading economic indicators for June -0.70% M/M & -7.82% Y/Y.
Warning: The probability of a recession is at its highest level since the early 1980s pic.twitter.com/1XmuWtjmdW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 Business inventories are a leading indicator of inflation A continued decline in inventories indicates lower inflation However, sharp drops have coincided with a recession since 1995 pic.twitter.com/IGHSrhJoF8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July …
This Will Send the Economy Spiraling into a Deep Recession (And How the Fed Will Make it Worse)
Here’s an easier chart. EVERY recession since 1969 has had same indicator. We had it again. When? 2/10 yield curve hit peak inversion (a 40+ yr high) in March. History says recession 6-9 mos after. Since March data says recession would start Sept-Dec. Ppl are just impatient. pic.twitter.com/BU8XPwwTMI — Macrotrend Mojo (@MacrotrendMojo) July 10, 2023 …
by confoundedinterest17 To quote Bill Paxton’s character from Twister: “It’s Already Here!” The feared recession, that is. The year-over-year growth rate in Household Net Worth has been negative for 3 consecutive quarters, the worst growth since The Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008/2009. Of course, the Biden family household net worth is off the charts. …
452k additional part-time jobs from economic reasons:“partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions…"More people are trying to get full-time jobs at same time businesses are cutting them… — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023 Revisions for Apr and May were negative …
“Back in 2017 when the Fed Balance sheet was $4.5 trillion … this was their forecast going forward, shrinking the balance sheet to $2 trillion by 2022. Instead we are at $8.3 trillion today. With the US govt running deficits over $2 trillion and a recession coming, we are going to $15 trillion to $20 …
IMF worries inflation can't be stopped pic.twitter.com/TE6PwuvYFj — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) July 6, 2023 Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gets right to the point in her speech: “I remain very concerned about whether inflation will return to target in a sustainable and timely way. And I think more-restrictive monetary policy will be needed …
via Ronni Stoeferle It is considered the most anticipated recession of all time – the one looming in the US. And although countless indicators ranging from the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) and PMIs to producer prices and international trade volumes have been pointing to a recession for months, it has not yet materialized in …
by Reduntu Recessions Shaded. Red line is current status, +30% YoY What are continued claims? Each week, the government releases a count of how many unemployed people continued to claim unemployment insurance for another week. When this number increases, it means currently unemployed people are staying unemployed instead of finding jobs and re-entering the workforce. Historically, every time …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Globalization and financialization have fueled the global economy for 40 years. Now they’re in the decline phase of the S-Curve. Does anyone benefit from a deep, prolonged global recession? Perhaps not in absolute terms, but in relative terms we can say some will suffer less than others. We can also …
The third OPEC+ oil cut. Oil ended down on the news. Sign of an extremely weak global economy. pic.twitter.com/Ic3kgQWpFf — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 3, 2023 Optimism around the Chinese consumer has faded following the re-opening A weakening Chinese economy is a major red flag for the global economy pic.twitter.com/8sDZ0BweP2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 3, …
Banks would lose $541 billion in ‘hard landing’ contingency: Fed The Federal Reserve said Thursday that banks are well capitalized enough to endure a severe recession but stand to lose $541 billion if the economy heads south. The findings came from the Fed’s annual stress test of the banking sector, which is based on major …
“The smart people have already paid the tab and gone home The remainder will wake up tomorrow with regrets” Don’t see a Recession? It’s Last Call at the bar The smart people have already paid the tab and gone home The remainder will wake up tomorrow with regrets https://t.co/jn65YPXxhk — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 2, …
“If the economy is re heating and we are avoiding a recession then inflation will also re heat and they will raise more and we will still end up in a recession. Yes, it is that simple.” If the economy is re heating and we are avoiding a recession then inflation will also re heat …
Photo by Howtogoto From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group Time to batten down the hatches, folks. That warning comes from HSBC Asset Management earlier this week. It could be a long recession, too. It’s not that surprising, once you take the highlights of HSBC’s into account: …blaring recession warnings across Western economies and investors should brace for a turbulent …
COMMODITIES: for those of you struggling to "see" the Global Industrial Recession we're already in… This Asset Class has crashed -22% from its Cycle Peak in #Quad4 pic.twitter.com/SU9VhuiOqQ — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) June 28, 2023 2/ China's annual exports indicate a potential contraction in global demand Chinese exports YoY came in at -7.5% for May …
“We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024” The probability of a recession has skyrocketed to levels last seen in the 1980s We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024 pic.twitter.com/gDXIzvtP56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 28, 2023 ‘Greatest Economic Reset In Our Lifetime’ Is …
Weekly data for corporate bankruptcy filings has started to meaningfully deteriorate in recent weeks: Apollo’s Torsten Slok 🤔 What happens to firms that don't generate enough $ to cover interest payments, when they are unable to refinance their junk in recession?https://t.co/YfZkZuxK9E — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) June 28, 2023 https://twitter.com/EventuallyCC/status/1673764995996471299 The yield curve invertoooor Yield …
“The German Yield Curve is the mot inverted its been in over 31 years. This may signal an impending recession. Also the German economy: -6.1% Inflation -Contraction in PMI from May to June -GDP forecasted to fall in Q2” Source: https://t.co/kognkNxLL6 — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) June 27, 2023 “WSJ: Germany has become a drag …
