Recession incoming or a shakeout before a bull run?
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators h/t Expensive_Foot5896
recession
Rising Oil Prices Might Be What Tips US Into Recession As Biden Drains The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Crude Oil Reserves Lowest Since 1985)
by confoundedinterest17 Its hard to watch Biden and The Progressive Greens destroy the enegy security of this great nation. Biden is draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, probably in a misguided attempt at ensuring we never go back to abundent petroleum again. Crude oil inventories are now the lowest since 1985. Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg …
Despite not foreseeing a recession or bear market, Goldman Sachs will lay off about 2,500 people.
Goldman Sachs to layoff approx ~2,500 in latest job cut announcement coming as soon as October $GS — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 8, 2023 As inflation cools and employment remains resilient, a US economic downturn is becoming less likely. Goldman Sachs economists cut their 12-month recession probability to 15%, down five percentage points from their prior …
A massive credit card debt catastrophe is coming. Even though we are not yet in a recession, banks are already perilously close to collapse.
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders is now higher than: Dot Com bubbleFinancial CrisisC-19 Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/1dBkzHOI1X — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 7, 2023 Americans are defaulting on their credit cards and auto loans at levels not seen since the financial crisis. The current accumulation rate of credit card debt may lead …
NO DOUBT – Tucker Carlson Predicts Massive Recession and WW III with Russia before 2024 Elections
“Would They Go to War with Russia? Of Course, They Would! They Want to Anyway” Tucker Carlson Predicts Massive Recession and WW III with Russia before 2024 Elections (VIDEO) Tucker Carlson sat for an interview with Adam Carola earlier this week. During the interview Tucker warned about the very real dangers of DC elites on …
Philadelphia Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started in 2022 Q4
via Mike Shedlock: The Philadelphia Fed GDPplus measure, a blend of GDP and GDI, is flashing a signal that recession has already started. Data from Philadelphia Fed, chart by Mish GDPplus is a measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points. It’s a blend, but not an …
Today Risk ON mode :US 2y yields plunge 15bps to 4.90% following weak JOLTS numbers which fuel recession fears.
Risk on due to recession fears… h/t inWineVerit4x
Fed creates stealthiest recession, convincing public recession risk is over.
Credit coming soon near you…https://t.co/hEiqH3gD9L — Maverick007 (@Maverick0087367) August 29, 2023 If these charts are correct and we are on the verge of another crash, markets should: 1) Rally until September 8th2) Remain flat until OpEx September 15th/20th3) Begin declining into October4) Panic collapse begins October 2nd when the US government shuts down over the …
The recession hasn’t even started, and we’re seeing massive weakness worldwide and government struggling.
Keep in mind: Liquidity matters! pic.twitter.com/Umk4CilqDY — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 28, 2023 ⚠️ 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗛 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗠𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗬 𝗖𝗨𝗧𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗣𝗨𝗥𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗦, 𝗖𝗔𝗥𝗥𝗘𝗙𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗦 Full Story → https://t.co/zME1YTyaFi "We are seeing a non-spending tsunami in France." pic.twitter.com/ObkiNwVLaA — PiQ (@PiQSuite) August 29, 2023 CHINA BANKS WEIGH FURTHER DEPOSIT RATE CUTS TO BOOST GROWTH. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) …
Rapid corporate interest payments make the “No Recession” scenario unlikely.
2/ There's a noticeable uptick in narratives around the prospect of a "soft landing" in recent months Meanwhile, discussions around the potential for a "recession" are dwindling in 2023 pic.twitter.com/6jwkX6V8oq — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 23, 2023 4/ The notion of a 'soft landing' isn't confined to just discussions; it's influencing market behavior The impressive …
Eurozone goes into recession; what sectors to buy?
by Hagtzel LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) – Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed. Wednesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes complicate matters for the European Central Bank which wants to control still rampant price rises without causing a recession. …
“We are not getting out of this WITHOUT a recession”
via bnnbloomberg.ca ‘We’re not getting out of this without a recession’: David Rosenberg Iva Poshnjari, BNN Bloomberg U.S. equity market strength is deceiving experts into believing we’ve dodged a recession, one prominent economist is warning. The S&P 500 was up roughly 15 per cent year to date as of Thursday, while a selloff continued throughout …
One more GDP print and the Dutch will be in Recession. Adyen a popular payment solution used by major US companies is down -25% today.
by DesmondMilesDant I know Q1 = -0.4%, Q2 = -0.3%. But they have literally changed the definition of recession. We need three consecutive -ve prints. Not 2.
US recession probability showing highest level since 1980’s for May ’24
by marketsimulator Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out last week and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. Estimates currently go through July ’24. This is not the fed’s official prediction but …
Netherlands enters recession
JUST IN – First Germany, now the Netherlands enters recession. — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 16, 2023 All of Europe is sinking into recession and economic decline The latest country that joined the list of countries in recession today is the Netherlands. Now officially European countries in recession are: 🇪🇪 Estonia 🇭🇺 Hungary 🇳🇱 Netherlands 🇩🇪 …
How To Stop Inflation Without A Recession? Slow Federal Spending And Shrink The Fed Balance Sheet (Return To Demand Economy From Obama/Biden’s Command Economy)
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation is a killer to the middle class and low-wage worker. Yet there are always apologists for terrible Federal spending and Federal Reserve monetary policies. Like Alex Bereson with his “How we stopped inflation without a recession (hint: by not stopping inflation).” Before I look at Berenson’s plea for more inflation, let’s see where …
The yield curve guy is back – chart of US recession probability
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and …
This recession starts in China…
Counter intuitive opinion, if CPI comes in slightly hot tomorrow they'll use that as a bullish narrative to "prove" the U.S. economy is resilient in the face of Chinese deflation What the talking heads won't tell the public is unlike previous recessions, this one starts in China https://t.co/gnKhx1zkOe pic.twitter.com/zj9Saxquyz — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 9, 2023 …
In 2008 the soft landing dream was alive through the end of August, 9 months into the recession.
In 2008 the soft landing dream was alive through the end of August, 9 months into the recession.https://t.co/SkNWeYEFFu — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) August 8, 2023 “Soft landing” news on @business is now higher than in 2000 and 2007. #macro https://t.co/4hl26TWkMQ pic.twitter.com/j329uSp4ch — Kantro (@MichaelKantro) August 8, 2023 Demand for bank loans in the corporate …
Coming Soon: A severe global recession that kicks off with the worst stock market crash ever and a global financial crisis far worse than 2008.
by mark000 The September/October window has high potential for the horror show to begin IMO. The global markets, financial system and economy will experience simultaneous heart attacks, leading to (or because of) super negative geopolitical developments. US Treasury Market Hits All-Time High of $25 Trillion in July This is a great example of how the …
What Do Federal Tax Receipts & Total Receipts Suggest About Recession?
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Federal tax receipts suggest GDI numbers, not GDP numbers, are accurate. They also hint at recession… Tax receipts from the BEA, chart by Mish Tax receipts and total receipts are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis which also produces the government GDP estimates. Data is through 2023 Q1 because …
Peter Schiff: Big Drop in Cardboard Box Sales Scream Recession
via Peter Schiff: Good news. The looming US recession has been canceled. Or has it? Just a few weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while economic growth has slowed, “our labor market continues to be quite strong — I don’t expect a recession.” Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said staff economists at …
Fed staff no longer predicts recession; Blackstone insiders dump stock
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1686187300516954112 EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Car Loans Tougher to Get, More People Getting Rejected by Lenders. https://twitter.com/1200616796295847936/status/1686034230470451201 The total for all commercial properties that were in distress was $72 billion, in the US, up 13% from the first quarter, per Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/rG3DWoF14z — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 31, 2023 Tech bulls are right, this is not 1999. …
Corporate bonds yield 0.12% above Fed Funds rate, the lowest level since 2007, and several indicators suggest a severe recession.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa: “Corporate bonds now yield only 0.12% above the Fed Funds rate. The lowest level since 2007, preceding the Global Financial Crisis. Every time credit spreads were at historically suppressed levels, a hard-landing scenario followed. Perhaps this time is indeed different, but I would rather base my perspective on numerous indicators pointing towards …
Recession Is Closer Than You Think, And Here’s The Proof
Photo by Katie Nesling From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group If you were to ask some market optimists about the possibility the U.S. would officially enter a recession this year, one answer one answer is, “What recession?” Despite widespread expectations that the U.S. could be headed for a recession this year, the economy has proved a lot …
Adam Taggart: Brace for a credit crunch + a “serious” recession
Brace for a credit crunch + a "serious" recession So counsels Dr Lacy Hunt, one of the most-respected living economists And don't use the financial markets as a signal for economic health. They're a near-useless indicator in his opinion This is a hugely important discussion: pic.twitter.com/Wp1ixwz3yv — Adam Taggart (@adamtaggart) July 27, 2023 Pending Home …
Will their new claim that a recession has been avoided be wrong next?
Not to mention, the Fed originally claimed inflation would’ve already been at 2%. Now, they said inflation won’t hit 2% until 2025. Their solution to being wrong? No longer giving guidance on policy outlook. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 27, 2023 “Rollercoaster” Inflation Is …
The same guy who failed to predict inflation surge now predict no recession
pic.twitter.com/oGs5JsTJ3M — StockCats (@RealStockCats) July 26, 2023 2-years ago… Powell predicted inflation will be "transitory" pic.twitter.com/ipmIKCwu8Y — StockCats (@RealStockCats) July 26, 2023 *FED CANCELS RECESSION FORECAST – POWELL pic.twitter.com/3xmb6ceNFd — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 26, 2023