Brace for a credit crunch + a "serious" recession
So counsels Dr Lacy Hunt, one of the most-respected living economists
And don't use the financial markets as a signal for economic health. They're a near-useless indicator in his opinion
This is a hugely important discussion: pic.twitter.com/Wp1ixwz3yv
— Adam Taggart (@adamtaggart) July 27, 2023
Pending Home Sales Crash -14.8% YoY As Fed Pushes Rates Up, Negative Growth For 24 Of Last 25 Months
The Biden Administration has been quick to praise the 2.4% Q2 Real GDP growth, a figure that seems underwhelming at best considering the monumental volume of government stimulus spending and aggressive monetary policy tactics implemented by the Federal Reserve. Despite these extraordinary measures, they have only managed to produce a mediocre growth rate. To add to the grim state of affairs, the housing market is presenting a dire scenario. June witnessed a severe slump in pending home sales, which fell by a startling 14.8% year-over-year. This precipitous drop stands as a brutal testament to the underlying weaknesses in the housing sector, which is being hammered by issues like high unemployment rates, soaring construction costs, and a critical shortage of affordable homes. The end of eviction and foreclosure moratoriums also looms ominously, likely to add further downward pressure on the housing market. With these alarming indicators, it’s clear that the economic policies being pursued might be less about fostering genuine, sustainable growth, and more about creating the illusion of economic stability.
The Fed in January 2008 vs July 2023. pic.twitter.com/GKIAG10dfO
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 27, 2023
Oil is back above $80. The 48% decline from June 2022 until May was a major factor in lowering YoY #CPI gains. The 26% rise in the three months since is likely the beginning of a larger move that will reverse any #inflation progress. The #Fed's gonna need a much bigger rate hike!
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 27, 2023
Details In Multiple Reports Are Telegraphing That Inflation Will Become A Big Issue In The Months Ahead https://t.co/cDZp3SScLN
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 28, 2023
Oil rallies above its 200-day for the first time since mid-2022. pic.twitter.com/BWx1p820l6
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 28, 2023
The bond market is on the verge of a major breakdown. Not only will this raise the cost of financing the $32.7 trillion National Debt, but it'll crush the loan portfolios of already insolvent banks. That means a return to QE to bail them out. Fixed-rate mortgage will soon hit 8%.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 27, 2023