Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It seems that France is joining Germany in recession. Who will tell Lagarde? pic.twitter.com/Niesm9TPVn — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) November 4, 2023 US households are worried about retirement, well, people should worry more in countries with collapsing demographics like Germany or Italy. Many people don’t realize yet how poor they will become in retirement. pic.twitter.com/coMKQBcd5x …
The only thing Biden & Co. can do is come up with catch-phrases. – Americans SUFFER with #inflation and a coming #recession. – HUGE layoffs around the corner as job loss numbers increase.-Staggering figures reveal 1.2 MILLION US-born workers lost their jobs last month. They… pic.twitter.com/lDTw7Ejkiz — Kurt Schemers (@KurtSchemers) October 26, 2023 We …
Despite Germany’s substantial infusion of state aid into its economy, the nation continues to grapple with recession and experiences the slowest growth rate among its counterparts. https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1718624015755936251
The U.S. deficit, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, is expanding at a pace twice as rapid as initially projected, primarily due to the previously undisclosed student loan debt. This trajectory points to a 2024 deficit that could surpass last year’s by a staggering $600 billion, representing a 40% surge within a single year. …
The government’s projection of the fiscal deficit carries a sobering implication: it foresees the Federal debt doubling within a mere 12 years. The government's own estimate of the fiscal deficit implies that the Federal debt will double in 12 years. What is even more ludicrous: This projection does not assume any recessions or the scenario …
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
Canadian banks appear to be following a familiar pattern, as they typically do during economic crises and recessions. The current signs of an accelerated decline indicate that a challenging period may indeed be on the horizon, with potential economic turbulence ahead. Canadian banks are in an accelerated decline now, just as they've done for every …
The Euro Area’s economic woes deepen as it faces its lowest PMI levels in nearly three years, raising concerns of a looming recession. Euro zone banks are tightening credit standards due to worsening economic conditions and rising interest rates, resulting in significant credit tightening. #Eurozone #PMI 📉 👀https://t.co/kbzBfUfarU pic.twitter.com/2jLAhRwIZa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 24, …
🇺🇸 *US SEPT. LEADING INDICATOR FALLS 0.7% M/M; EST. -0.4% (18th straight drop) – BBG *On a YoY basis, the index fell 7.8%. *Usually, this level is associated with #recession. pic.twitter.com/sCe9Q70mY5 — Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) October 19, 2023 Recession comes when the curve uninverts. That's where we are now. pic.twitter.com/XJG1Jir7JV — Swordfish (@Swordfishv44183) October 19, …
via Mike Shedlock: There’s some sad news today in the trucking business today that unfortunately has some people cheering. Digital Startup Convoy Is Winding Down Its Freight Business Digital freight startup Convoy, a business founded by former Amazon.com executives that has drawn a star-studded lineup of tech investors, has suspended operations and is winding …
Global economic activity, expressed as trade (imports + exports) and industrial production combined, is clearly in #recession. It is hard to fathom how the U.S can dodge the bullet. pic.twitter.com/gBVO44Mm28 — RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) October 17, 2023 Asian stocks declined amid headwinds from lingering geopolitical risks and higher yields… pic.twitter.com/gF4KmlJ0oU — Newsquawk (@Newsquawk) October 19, 2023 …
Permanent job losses have been on the rise A spike in this metric has sysmtematically led to a recession Current rate of increase is comparable to: – Dot Com bubble– Financial Crisis– Pandemic All three instances experienced significant economic downturns, Resulting in… pic.twitter.com/yB2EPvxOV6 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 18, 2023 60bps away from starting our …
Mortgage Rates Close to 8% as Economy Refuses to Cool Inflation and economic growth… Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates over the past few years. The Fed won’t signal an end to its “higher for longer” rate policies until it sees lower …
If these problems in major economies collide, it could spell global financial disaster soon, and it feels like we need some urgent solutions, but we’re not getting them. On top of that, the recent Treasury bond auction didn’t go so well, which adds to worries about the U.S. debt piling up and how Wall Street …
Yep this is one of the many metrics falling down in the labor market pic.twitter.com/fzMC6yWFGE — RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) October 12, 2023 Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 is now over 60% This level has been seen only 2 times since 1960 Both times, it ended in severe economic downturns While the Fed still …
🇸🇪 It unfortunately looks like the labour market part of the Swedish recession has arrived… pic.twitter.com/XYOkHD7Rer — Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) October 12, 2023
via John Rubino: The hardest part of writing this kind of post is sorting through all the red flags. There are just too many these days. So here are the handful that look scariest at the moment: Interest rates are above 2007 levels in a world with twice as much debt. This shouldn’t have been …
Insane. The current Nasdaq-to-Treasuries ratio stands 70% higher than its level during the tech bubble's peak. This chart puts into perspective how, despite ongoing issues with Treasuries, the more relevant question now is whether overall equities can remain as overvalued as… pic.twitter.com/CKBWvHPtU6 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 9, 2023 BREAKING: Banks are bracing for …
by KenBalbari I don’t think so, no. I think many are still leaning to the soft landing scenario. Clearly there is no recession yet, but if there is going to be one, I think it will be mainly top down, starting with further declines in corporate profits, eventually leading to a weaker jobs market. Bond …
Biden’s economic blunders sending America into a tailspin: Recession fears, skyrocketing inflation, and a sleepy president ignoring it all while you struggle to afford gas and groceries.
I guess many had started buying in bonds with this in mind. But the impending recession just kept getting postponed…would have definitely hurted those fresh positions… — J (@Being__J) October 6, 2023
All major buckets of jobs are showing declining growth. The labor market slowdown has been extremely slow, particularly through the cyclical sectors that have experienced labor hoarding issues. Interestingly, service sector jobs growth has cooled sharply in recent months. pic.twitter.com/ffcIIbzpUm — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October 4, 2023 How many name changes will they go through …
Analysts are repeating the same mistake made during the 2008 Financial Crisis by revising earnings upwards despite a contraction in leading economic indicators, raising major warning signals. The US is experiencing deficit spending near 10% of GDP, reaching levels last seen in 2008, yet the Fed maintains that there is no recession in sight, leading …
The Fed does want unemployment to go up a little bit. Seems like they are adopting an easy way to make that happen. h/t DesmondMilesDant
A recession will hit by the spring, and the S&P 500 will crash by 25% or more, David Rosenberg has said. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 20, 2023 The Fed was 12 months late to start hiking and now they've over tightened. Markets won't wait for the Fed to cut before selling off because there is …
The warning signs are becoming more pronounced, and it appears that a recession may be looming closer than expected. Tightening liquidity is often a precursor to economic downturns. This is evident in the increasing number of companies closing their doors and factories declaring bankruptcy. These are clear indicators of economic distress that should not be …
by Michael A lot of the talking heads on television seem to think that the threat of a recession has passed. So exactly why have these talking heads come to such a ridiculous conclusion? Well, they figure that if a recession hasn’t started by now we are probably in relatively good shape. In other words, …
The current situation in the US financial landscape is a cause for concern. It has been known that the top 5 US banks are over-leveraged, which can be a recipe for disaster. Over-leveraging can make these banks vulnerable to financial downturns and economic shocks. This vulnerability is further highlighted by the fact that companies are …
“Blah blah blah I hate Trump blah blah blah. Is how the speech went. But “I’m not running for reelection” is all you need to hear. pic.twitter.com/hBCii3aw2M — Noah Fencebutt (@Noah_Fencebutt) September 13, 2023 Mitt Romney is not seeking re-election. This is confirmation that there’s no more juice in this lemon economy. There’s no amount …
Happy meals on the menu. Recession is here A recent spate of TikTok videos have offered hacks for saving money at restaurants — and (spoiler alert) they are mostly people ordering from the kids’ menu. Some of them focus on Olive Garden, where generous portions (and those breadsticks), along with frequent freebie add-ons are a …