Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
EVERY SINGLE TIME YoY growth in bank credit turns negative the economy has gone into a recession. Latest reading (Nov): -0.9%. The problem isn’t Mr Powell, but rather Mr Dimon. pic.twitter.com/RHTQbKfCQY — AnilVohra1962 🇬🇧🇨🇦 (@AnilVohra1962) December 30, 2023 If you liked how they hid it in the 70s then you’ll love how they’re hiding it …
Bloomberg: How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the Recession? Fears of a recession are fading fast, but the debate over the flaws of economic forecasting is just beginning. Last year at this time, 85% of economists in one poll predicted a recession this year — and that was an optimistic take compared to …
Stocks rose to start the last week of the year, pushing the S&P 500 closer to record levels. The S&P 500 climbed 0.42% to end at 4,774.75, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.54% to settle at 15,074.57. The Dow Jones industrial Average gained 159.36 points, or about 0.43%, to close at 37,545.33. The Nasdaq 100 …
In case there is still any confusion: "Prices are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels. It would probably take a historically painful recession to engineer that degree of deflation. In other words, past inflation is mostly water under the bridge for the Fed." – BofA — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 26, 2023 The survey, which polled …
by mrmrmrj This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between yield curve inversions and subsequent recessions. As you can see, there is a strong correlation between the two phenomena. In other words, when the yield curve inverted (i.e., when short-term interest rates rose above long-term interest rates), a recession soon followed. This suggests that an inverted …
China’s central bank has made a historic move by injecting a record $112 billion into the financial system, according to reports from Bloomberg. This substantial cash injection comes as the Chinese yuan experiences depreciation against the US dollar, posing challenges for exporters and raising concerns about potential inflation. The Chinese economy has been grappling with …
The stock market is currently experiencing its most overbought conditions since the early days of the pandemic, with traders displaying a fervent appetite for bullish options contracts. This surge in bullish sentiment is reminiscent of the situation leading up to the 2008-09 recession, raising concerns among seasoned analysts. A striking comparison can be drawn between …
by _BreakingGood_ 1: All major media and banking institutions have confirmed the upcoming recession 2: The yield curve has inverter 2: Consumer credit card debt is spiking 3: Auto loan defaults are spiking 4: Reduced inflation doesn’t mean prices went down. Everything is still expensive. 5: BTC and Crypto are mooning (money held in crypto …
by ValenTom https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive Rate cuts doesn’t mean the printer is coming back for fun. It means the printer is coming back due to need. The broad economy is in a very high risk position right now and the global economy is deteriorating by the day. The market and economy are not reflecting the reality of …
Is McDonald's pricing themselves out of the fast food market? Their reputation was for cheap food. Now people are realizing that with higher minimum wages ($15 to $20 per hour) and high food costs, now McDonald's is costing just as much as restaurants with higher perceived… pic.twitter.com/GJuaRxlvdx — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 14, 2023 …
by SilbergleitJunior It appears that we are heading into an extreme economic downturn.
In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve is hinting at multiple rate cuts in 2024, sparking questions about the stability of the financial system. This decision has historical echoes, as every major rate cut since the 1970s has been followed by a substantial 30% drawdown in the S&P 500. For the first time in recent …
by danielromero6 The surge in prices has made it increasingly challenging for people to save, with the personal saving rate hitting its lowest point in 15 years. Credit card debt has skyrocketed. Rent is more expensive than ever compared to disposable income. Household savings have plummeted twice as much as in the Great Recession. Permanent …
The cycle was ending and the Fed was already easing in 2019 before the pandemic. However, the pandemic asset bubble guarantees this recession will be many times worse than it would have been.https://t.co/resrCdAIzT Interest payments have doubled since the pandemic lows. pic.twitter.com/3Y9PywZR8Q — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 3, 2023 This show personal interest payments adjusted for …
The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and …
by Cr4ck3r51 I’m a wholesaler in Dallas , been in business for 11 years strictly in wholesale. We supply cars to local dealers, since September we used to run 130 cars a week and now we barely running 80 , we went from selling 80% of inventory to 20%-30%. Our volume went down, we can’t …
by DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Sonder Quest on Unsplash David Rosenberg argues recession may already be here because Gross Domestic Income is already recessionary; but the only thing anyone is looking at, he says, is Gross Domestic Product. I’ve argued this point earlier this year, too. Rosenberg notes that significant difference between the two rarely ever exists, but the …
In the midst of a severe recession in the freight market, marked by an oversupply of trucks and a scarcity of freight, the logistics industry faces a wave of bankruptcies, closures, and layoffs, with notable companies like Yellow Corp. and Convoy being casualties. This downturn, contrary to some analysts’ expectations, is not a mere reversion …
by _BreakingGood_ All of the memes and jokes about how “the bears were wrong, the market is booming” changes nothing. There are foolproof indicators of a recession on the horizon and those denying it are in denial. The yield curve is inverter, the unemployment and jobs rates are taking an absolute sh*t this month, you …
The surprise factor in the recent inflationary trend stems from the oversight of crucial indicators like M2, even within institutions like the Federal Reserve. Just about everyone (including at the Federal Reserve) was surprised by inflation. You know why? Because they didn’t pay attention to M2! They still aren’t, and I believe that the decline …
@KeithMcCullough warns that the recent surge in Regional Banking ($KRE) and Real Estate ($XLRE), often seen as positive, could be a bear market bounce, potentially misleading investors before a recession. Drawing parallels to the Great Financial Crisis, McCullough highlights this as outright panic buying and suggests the current crisis might surpass the GFC, impacting Main …
Is the current economic situation indicating that we’re experiencing a recession at this moment? The harrowing sequence of consecutive declines in the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators stands at an alarming 18, suggesting an ominous trajectory for the economy. Disturbingly, nearly half of recent homeowners reveal struggles in meeting mortgage obligations, attributing this challenge to …
Eurozone data paints a bleak picture of economic distress: retail sales plummet, wages pose risks, but savings have drained, financing is tight, and uncertainty looms, likely leading households to curb spending. Germany’s industry remains in a slump, facing weak demand and declining production. Despite a glimmer of hope in high order stocks, urgent concerns persist …
The global economic landscape is sounding alarm bells. 🌍 World manufacturing PMIs GDP weighted 47.6 Deeper in #recession territory! Chart: @PkZweifel pic.twitter.com/SycowQ6W06 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 8, 2023
by mrmrmrj Blue line goes below black line = recession
by TonyLiberty 1) Worsening job sentiment indicators suggest that employees are growing more pessimistic about the economy, the labor market, and their ability to find a job. • If job sentiment is weakening, it implies consumers will pull back on discretionary purchases. This can negatively impact GDP growth as spending slows. It also signals potential …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 56.2%. This means that there is a more than 50% chance that the economy will contract in the next year. The odds are highest in over 10 years, and this has been driven by concerns about trade policy and weakening global growth.
by polloponzi Here is a round-up of the doom and gloom headlines that have occurred in one of the worst downturns in freight market history. 30,000 employees out of work when trucking firm Yellow shuttered 2/ pic.twitter.com/NdBSIIfIxE — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) November 4, 2023 Nearly $500M in debt catches up to air cargo operator …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 Gold is currently trading at $1,999.90 per ounce, up 0.72% from yesterday’s close of $1,983.18 per ounce. Gold prices are up 28.4% since December 2007 and have outperformed the 3-month Treasury yield by a wide margin over that time period.
