Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The US economy has been struggling for some time, and the situation has worsened with the onset of a recession. The recession is here, and it’s not looking pretty. Despite the optimism and reassurances from various sources, the reality is that the recession is expected to have a severe impact. Today, we will examine the …
In the realm of economic indicators, recent trends in the US retail sector are sending warning signals. Real retail sales have declined by 1.6% year over year, a concerning downturn that historically precedes a recession. Moreover, the stagnation in retail sales is mirrored by a surge in unsold new-build inventory, indicative of weakening consumer demand. …
🇺🇸 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations minus Present Situation -77.2 Leading indicator for #recession! Chart: @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/nYsQcGlMBq — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) March 27, 2024 As economic indicators send warning signals, analysts are keeping a close eye on the pulse of the trucking industry. The latest data points to a downturn in the number of …
Canada is in a RECESSION! "Mortgage delinquency rates ROSE 52.3% in the last quarter of 2023" Ontario mortgage delinquency rates are at 135% !?! "Delinquency rates for non-mortgages including credit cards rose almost 30%" This is absolutely nuts… 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/1kBguAkcWD — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 27, 2024 More Canadians are beginning to crack under …
Chart showing historical reaction after the last Fed hike: 1) No recession = prolonged S&P 500 rally of more than 20% in 6 months on average2) Recession = short-term rally and then a drop of more than 20% in 6 months on averagehttps://t.co/pDI4e1UgAG pic.twitter.com/A7AfFBiKmE — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March 25, 2024 'Peter Thiel, Jeff …
The U.S. economy is showing signs of an imminent recession, with indicators like rising inflation and falling consumer confidence sparking concerns among economists and policymakers. The urgency to tackle this impending problem is evident. As we prepare for potential economic fallout, it’s crucial to understand the underlying forces at play and take bold measures to …
New Zealand has dipped back into a recession after its economy shrank for the second quarter in a row, figures released by government agency Stats NZ showed on Thursday. The country’s gross domestic product dipped in the last two quarters of 2023, the figures showed, partly fuelled by a downturn in New Zealand’s crucial agricultural …
Chief Economist Warns Of High Chances Of Recession Due To Rising Unemployment And Declining Consumer Spending The chances of the economy sliding into a recession are “extremely high,” as the United States is on the brink of experiencing a surge in unemployment and a significant decline in consumer spending. Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of …
by AC I drive deliveries on all the major highways in the NY Tristate Region at all hours of the day and night. I am seeing some very bad signs that we are in a Major League Economic slowdown by seeing what the trucks are doing. Over the past 6 months, things are radically changing. …
As the world teeters on the brink of a global recession, it's crucial to understand how interconnected our economies are. This is why the troubles in Europe and Asia are not just their problem but ours too. The domino effect of economic downturns across continents is real.… pic.twitter.com/fg9F2CcrqD — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) March 7, …
via Mike Shedlock EU fiscal rules, on hiatus since the Covid recession, are about to restart. Recession is unavoidable. France and Germany take a leading role the action. Germany industrial production via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Eurozone Fiscal Rules Eurozone fiscal rules have been suspended since 2020 but have been reinstated for 2024. …
This happens literally every recession. Almost verbatim to 2007. Because lagging indicators haven't happened, there won't be a recession. No, you're just following the wrong indicators. https://t.co/xeL1VzHFq5 pic.twitter.com/NweH9HGy1K — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 27, 2024
Despite assertions of a robust economy from government sources, a pervasive sense of unease persists among Americans. This unease is not unfounded, given the confluence of factors such as record-high inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and lingering pandemic-era uncertainties. Amidst these, voices of caution grow louder, a warning signal that a …
There’s an 85% chance the US economy will enter a recession in 2024, the economist David Rosenberg says. He highlighted a relatively new economic model that has proven to be more timely than the yield-curve indicator. “Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level,” Rosenberg …
The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi’s chief US economist said. The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales data has shown a drop in …
About the author: Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was previously a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and the chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. The world economy is in trouble. Not only are there clear indications of a …
Several countries, including the UK and Japan, officially face recession, raising concerns about global economic stability. The possibility of Germany and the US entering a downturn is also looming, coupled with worries about China’s deep deflationary challenges. Germany and maybe even the US as the forward outlook is getting less promising China also is worrying …
by confoundedinterest17 As some fans celebrate the Kansas City Chiefs Superbowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers (the game was so much like bread and circuses from the Roman Empire except for who is being thrown to the lions), we have been distracted from the horrible state of the US economy. Just review that horrible December …
by PreviousComment1 Those 300,000 new jobs created that you heard about on the news last month? They’re all from people taking part-time jobs. We’ve lost 1.3 MILLION full time jobs since November 2023. Remember that when they try to gaslight you that the economy is doing great. The household survey, of WORKERS, shows full time employment …
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show for a riveting conversation. Peter underscores his belief that the much-anticipated recession hasn’t yet arrived due to rampant money creation and continuous borrowing. He challenges the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data, believing its reported market conditions to be milder than reality. He spotlights the increasing number …
The bigger problem is that the median income is so low when the median expenses are so high. Millennials have been hit hard financially, with more debt and a lower net worth than their parents had at the same life stage, per BI. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 31, 2024 h/t Peace_And_Happiness_
The probability of an outright contraction keeps getting higher and higher with each successive release. Ford projecting a *30%* decrease in commercial chassis orders: What this means: If you're ordering fewer chassis, you're likely producing fewer vehicles. But 30% is a big number. Image below is a layoff notice (WARN) filed by one of Ford's …
via JOHN RUBINO: Stocks are melting up while government officials claim credit for a soft landing. And yet… The US Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continues to predict a slowdown while GDP, which normally tracks the LEI, remains strong. Which one is right? The December index of business conditions in the New York Fed’s territory plunged …
Getting inflation to 2% has proven to be much harder than getting inflation from 9% to 4%. Supply chain issues and rising commodity prices have a lot to do with it. The Fed and ECB's job is still far from over. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter …
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-2yr10yr-yield-curve-hits-deepest-inversion-42-years-2023-07-03/ A yield curve inversion – in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities – has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The 2/10 year yield curve has inverted six to 24 months before each recession since 1955, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the San Francisco Fed, offering only one …
A staggering 96% of Americans express deep worry about the current economic landscape, according to a survey by Intuit Credit Karma. The surprising link between low unemployment and imminent recessions is now causing widespread anxiety. While historically, a low unemployment rate signals a robust economy, recent data challenges this notion. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen …
The US high-yield bond market is currently facing its swiftest sell-off since March, triggering concerns reminiscent of worries about a banking-market collapse. Spreads in this market have widened by almost half a percentage point since December 28, marking the fastest pace of widening since March 16. This sudden development has raised eyebrows, signaling potential turbulence …
During December, I rarely saw a FedEx delivery trick on the roads in my 80,000+ person town, rarely a UPS truck, maybe a few Amazon trucks every once in a while. The real economy seems to be declining fast. From r/Fedexer: We are in a recession. Buckle up. This morning, we were notified by text …
