Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It may look like good news and the media will slant it to a FJ Biden win – but the reality isn’t price reductions – its a complete slow down of the economy. I am in construction and I can say that bid activity – there are no bids going on. Its gone completely quiet …
The US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale + BI. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 11, 2024 This is crazy. They are calling 2024 “Restaurant Armageddon” as the consumer …
Endless spending and low interest rates resulted in 40-year high inflation. Now, over half of American adults believe we are in a recession. Even with endless deficit spending, consumer sentiment is horrible. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 10, 2024 Food Costs are soaring to …
The retail industry has been a challenging battleground lately, with consumers facing high inflation and economic uncertainty. Target, one of America’s retail leaders, recently reported troubling financial results impacting the entire industry. In their latest earnings report, Target revealed concerning trends highlighting the economic challenges affecting consumers and businesses. With its iconic bull’s-eye logo displayed …
During last five decades each time so many full time jobs were eliminated recession kicked in. Is it different this time? pic.twitter.com/yaD25xQCe9 — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) June 8, 2024 🇺🇸 US full time employees -1.16 million YoY. In #recession territory! pic.twitter.com/2vws9pfr68 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 7, 2024 I've never seen Chicago PMI this …
What’s happening now is a troubling shift in the job market. Job openings are being filled as new entrants join the labor force and displaced workers find new positions. However, these job openings are not being replenished, leading to an uptick in the unemployment rate. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find work, and unless the …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Chandler Cruttenden on Unsplash A few small things settled in a direction that could give Powell a chill that causes him to shift from battling inflation to driving it back up nice and hot, just as stock investors and bond investors are back to hoping he will do. Changes in the labor market …
As we see in the chart below, in recent years the S&P 500 has made no new highs without Tech leadership. Which is unfortunate, because it appears that the Nvidia is having its Gamestop moment ahead of this impending stock split (tomorrow after the close).… pic.twitter.com/bU54jn9mKh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 6, 2024 Bitcoin Update . …
We’re not the only ones that have economic problems. This recession will be global. pic.twitter.com/aHNukwZGof — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 5, 2024 German unemployment has risen by more than expected in a blow to hopes that it is recovering from a downturn. There were another 25,000 people out of work in May, data from the …
They’re looking at their own situation to determine that. GDP is being propped up by government spending and monetary policy, all the while households are struggling with inflation. — Steven Hasty (@StevenHasty) June 4, 2024 The Fed made two cardinal policy mistakes in just two years 1) Calling inflation transitory2) Prematurely pivoting in Dec 2023 …
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
In early March, U.S. banks faced substantial unrealized losses, ominous figures hinting at potential disaster. At the end of 2022, these losses hit $1.7 trillion, nearly matching the total equity of U.S. banks, which stood at $2.1 trillion. Rising interest rates slashed the value of assets like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, mainstays in bank …
100% in line 👏👏👏 Recession IS coming! And it will be severe. But first continuation of BlowOffTop🚀🚀🚀 https://t.co/7ITl70Y11D — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) June 2, 2024 "Growth of credit extended by the financial system looks anemic." https://t.co/fEJgEcIpnZ ht @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/Lo3zPdRKhv — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 2, 2024 Dave Portnoy has said: My problem with the stock …
Yes and… pic.twitter.com/42pTh1uI9M — Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) May 31, 2024 ALERT: Households are now out of excess savings Reaching the lowest level in the past 5 years This is not looking good pic.twitter.com/OMplaq6sgs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 31, 2024
via Mike Shedlock The Philadelphia Fed has a GDP method that blends, not averages GDP and GDI. They revised the indicator significantly lower on Thursday. GDPplus from Philadelphia Fed and GDI from the BEA, chart by Mish Is GDP or GDI a Better Measure? The Philadelphia Fed prefers GDI over GDP but it prefers a …
by confoundedinterest17 Not so Sweet Home Chicago! After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. To …
The recent insights into consumer sentiment and economic outlook paint a complex picture of financial strain and diverging spending patterns across different segments of the economy. With 31% of recent home buyers citing financial challenges like budget constraints and high interest rates, it’s clear that affordability concerns are widespread and impacting major purchasing decisions. Moreover, …
The recession in America just hit Home Depot and Lowe’s, home improvement stores whose success is fundamentally linked to the US housing and real estate market. Home Depot reported a big revenue miss on the quarter. While Lowe’s reported revenues down 17% YoY in Q1 2024. These poor performances are a signal the the US …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Why we won’t see the next recession coming and why it may not be reported as a recession even if it is the worst recession since the Great Depression. (But YOU’LL certainly feel it in your bones!) The next recession has all the ingredients to become the worst since the Great Depression …
11% of Americans are on Food Stamps … But yeah, there is no recession … Everything is just hunky dory. 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/fFb4ylz7LC — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) May 22, 2024 A wave of America’s retirees are dusting off their résumés and stepping back into the workforce, seeking financial stability as inflation changes the trajectory of …
They will call the recession when they just stop eating entirely — Strawberry Cow (@scow_invest) May 21, 2024 BREAKING: US credit card serious delinquency rates for most age groups have spiked to the highest level in 13 years. In Q1 2024, delinquencies of 90+ days rose above 9% for ages 18-29 and 30-39, levels comparable …
Credit card debt has now surpassed $1 trillion, with interest rates having risen in tandem. It appears that consumers are financing inflationary prices via debt: https://t.co/sjXnsH9CPW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) May 14, 2024 Investor sentiment has shifted significantly today Now, only 17.7% people expect a recession in 2024 Compared to 45% who anticipate a no …
Amidst fears of an impending recession, analysts point to historical indicators like a steepening yield curve and rising unemployment. Drawing parallels to past economic downturns, such as the Dot Com bubble and the 2008 Financial Crisis, cautionary signals have yet to fully materialize. Despite this, the stock market remains bullish, buoyed by ongoing optimism and …
Bankruptcies are hitting average American families, and U.S. businesses really hard in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Courts. Higher consumer prices are making Americans take on massive loads of debt just to get by, while businesses are being impacted by decreased sales and falling profits at a time costs continue to climb. The …
If 41% of companies in the Russell 2000 cannot make money during good times, what will happen during next recession? pic.twitter.com/CKi2d73IK1 — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) May 11, 2024
KC Fed Labor Market Index update for April #MacroEdge Labor and cuts are next in the saga. Job market is cooked like gumbo before an LSU football game. pic.twitter.com/N1WXe75cb3 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 10, 2024 Red X marks March 2001 and December 2007 – start of the two previous NBER indicated downturns pic.twitter.com/Oc7A41pfN5 — …
Concerns arise over Federal Reserve’s handling of unemployment, with predictions of further damage to the labor market. Recent data signals a cooling labor market, evidenced by rising unemployment rates and increased part-time employment. Speculation mounts for additional Fed rate cuts as recession indicators intensify. Call Milli Vanilli because this shi* is getting real Now Fed …
As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst …
Investor euphoria persists despite recent market drops, raising concerns about the absence of hard lessons since 2009. Glenn Kelman’s insights resonate deeply with real estate professionals, highlighting a housing recession amid a booming economy. As monetary policy falters and debt cycles override business cycles, the strain on households becomes palpable, reflected in record-high credit card …
Eurozone Retail Sales Volume pic.twitter.com/WGeFPQdJzU — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 8, 2024 📈 New data from the Indeed Wage Tracker 📉 🇪🇺 Eurozone – Downward trajectory resumed in March 🇬🇧 UK – Continued slowdown but wage growth remains high, a concern for monetary policymakers 🇺🇸 US – Wage growth is down to its 2019 …