The US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale + BI.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 11, 2024
This is crazy.
They are calling 2024 “Restaurant Armageddon” as the consumer rolls over and inflation and high borrowing rates kill profit margins. pic.twitter.com/HwDRMQ29Bb
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 11, 2024
- Economic Growth Expectations Cut:
- Atlanta Fed economists have significantly reduced their expectations for second-quarter GDP growth. Initially projected at 3.4%, it has now been revised down to 1.8% growth1.
- This sharp decline in growth expectations raises concerns about the overall economic health.
- Slowing Manufacturing Activity:
- Manufacturing activity, a crucial indicator of economic growth, has contracted. New manufacturing orders declined in May, and overall manufacturing activity has contracted for the 18th time in the last 18 months1.
- The manufacturing sector’s performance closely correlates with overall GDP, making this slowdown a worrisome sign.
- Falling Inflation Measures:
- Inflation has cooled from its highs in 2022. The market-based core personal consumption expenditures deflator (a key inflation measure) declined to 2.8% for April1.
- Weakening inflation suggests that consumer spending, a significant driver of the economy, is also weakening.
Bear markets almost always resulted in a change in leadership
– BofA pic.twitter.com/CxBc1FewBo
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 10, 2024