Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
We need a recession so bad pic.twitter.com/Od02OQpMVB — Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) July 19, 2024 An all-time high 30% of the population have a stock portfolio worth more than $500,000 pic.twitter.com/WaII8aGiAl — Barchart (@Barchart) July 20, 2024
We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession. byu/nobjos inwallstreetbets
It is worse than that. Even their advantages have a downside. Unlike the US most EU countries have exercised good debt management and have long average maturities. A higher for longer scenario is not their friend as debt gets rolled over. #EU #France #debt #deficit — Jacobo Pascual (@jacobotweetsnow) July 16, 2024 Current Fiscal Deficit: …
Posts from the economiccollapse community on Reddit The Buffett indicator doesn’t look so great, either. AI has pushed everything much higher. No one knows what effect it should really have on valuations and at some point a bubble does form. Not predicting it because no one really knows but there are warning signs. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-indicator-sounds-alarm-220009350.html Americans …
Over the past few months, economic analysts and experts have been sounding the alarm about a recession. There have been increasing concerns about economic instability, with these worries echoing in financial markets and boardrooms nationwide. Now, a surge of data has confirmed what many have feared: the United States is on the verge of a …
Head of Tampa Food Bank has seen traffic double to 40k/month in last few months. This is a nationwide phenomenon as recession deepens. Most on this feed in stock market or watch it closely. Those who need help have no stocks but rather falling incomes & families they must feed. https://t.co/jguKPaCVNe — Danielle DiMartino Booth …
We are already in a recession byu/Teckel22 inwallstreetbets Top Wall Street analyst issues stark warning for stocks Wall Street’s most-vocal bear sees a big correction for U.S. stocks coming, even as benchmarks continue to print records, but he sees the impending pullback as a chance to buy into the market’s next move forward. Morgan Stanley’s …
It has been a rolling recession for years. Real estate, materials, energy producers, industrials, small caps, consumer staples, cyclicals… Fed's QT and rate hikes has been working. The script should flip when rate cuts commence and the dollar rolls over — James (@shingerbinger) July 8, 2024 Higher for longer meets unemployed for longer pic.twitter.com/NQcG5DoXK6 — …
This economic indicator just saw a big move down At this rate, the recession threshold will be hit in 2024 The last 3 times it was hit ended in sharp economic downturns Leading to significant stock market declines pic.twitter.com/3h673lqYys — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 7, 2024 RECESSION IN THE US USUALLY COMES WITHIN 18 MONTHS …
THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING: Japan households spending declined in the last 14 out of 15 months. Meanwhile, Japan's GDP shrank at an annualized pace of 2.9% in Q1 2024, rose slightly by 0.1% in Q4 2023 and contracted by a whopping 4% in Q3. 3rd largest economy is in a recession. pic.twitter.com/FgF9ZKzkkQ — Global Markets …
“Emergency rate cuts” equals hard-landing recession is inevitable and already underway. No central bank has ever “emergency rate cut” itself out of a recession. https://t.co/QP44holn9s — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) July 7, 2024 Negative growth in Full Time Work. No false positives in predicting a recession. pic.twitter.com/F7nYdUVqv0 — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) July 6, 2024 …
2/ Picture this: The US economy is a race car, and GDP is the speedometer In calm times, the needle stays steady, hovering above 2% And when it dips, we're entering a period of economic weakness — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 5, 2024 4/ During recessions, GDP declines to around 0 or below Indicating full-blown …
🇨🇦 Canada's unemployment shows it's already in a severe recession & entered it before the U.S. Canada also has the largest housing bubble in the world. https://t.co/LyJGxSqs05 pic.twitter.com/hg406OfFcg — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2024 BREAKING: Canada's financial regulator says they are delaying plans to hike capital requirements for banks https://t.co/5HV5HfOOXi pic.twitter.com/ExLUwataPE — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July …
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
The pandemic left the U.S. labor market badly overheated. Reopening businesses panicked at labor shortages, paying big raises to hire. As prices shot higher, fears rose of a wage-price spiral. Recently, though, the labor market has cooled, and indeed, looks like something close to normal. Unemployment has crept up from a half-century low of 3.4% …
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist The most important thing for investors to understand about the economy is that “it is different this time.” We’ve already assessed how multiple previously accurate recession indicators (yield curve inversion, Sahm Rule trigger, etc.) have registered false positives in this cycle. Why is this happening? For one thing, the …
It’s beginning to feel a lot like #Recession pic.twitter.com/7SQZREU7hJ — 🤠Rabbi Weimar Silver Baron 🤠 (@BankerWeimar) June 26, 2024 Was today’s S&P Manufacturing PMI bullish? This is what it said… since so few read these Seems like #recession stuff 🤷 pic.twitter.com/IxnIOdjg9r — 🤠Rabbi Weimar Silver Baron 🤠 (@BankerWeimar) July 1, 2024 US Pending home sales …
by Jo-89002 As of the past 12 months, the federal budget deficit in the United States totaled $2.2 trillion. This amount is up 64% from the $1.4 trillion deficit in Fiscal Year 2022 and more than twice as large as the deficit prior to the beginning of the pandemic. The final revision for Q1 24 GDP is in, …
Australia and Canada cut rates, now inflation is re-accelerating in both those countries. Europe cut rates, now stocks are imploding. China cut rates, now they're in recession. All U.S. investors want to know is why can't we cut rates too? pic.twitter.com/MNS8k7kIso — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 27, 2024 Ho lee fuk Emergency rate rises needed. It's …
Both Walmart and Target have experienced significant decreases in profit for their first quarters, which could signal an oncoming recession—or a recession that we’re already in, according to experts.
The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more over a three-month period, it signals a likely recession. The idea behind this approach is …
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing sector, building permits, S&P 500, and bonds. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), designed to …
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has recently updated its projections for the U.S. government’s budget deficit. Here are the key points: Fiscal Year 2024 Deficit: The projected deficit for fiscal year 2024 is $1.9 trillion. Adjusted to exclude certain payment timing effects, the deficit amounts to $2.0 trillion in 2024. Deficit Trend: The deficit is …
A number of economic indicators associated with forecasting recessions are currently reporting warning signals. The Game of Trades investment research platform, pointed out the presence of serious difficulties in the labor market, where the pace of job cuts is accelerating aggressively. Historically, since 1995, such trends have preceded recessions. Recent indications show that annual permanent job losses …
67% of middle-class Americans express concern that their income isn’t keeping pace with the rising cost of living. This situation has led to what JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss calls a “selective recession.” While upper-income consumers fare better, lower-income Americans are struggling to make ends meet due to elevated prices and dwindling savings. The pressure persists as inflation continues, …
California’s Share of Unemployed: California currently accounts for approximately 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, which is significantly higher than its 11% share of the labor force population. This indicates that a disproportionate number of unemployment claims are coming from California. California in a jam after borrowing billions to pay unemployment benefits "…20% of the unemployed happen to live in …
Fantastic point! ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was announced a year after it started — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2024
via Mike Shedlock Unemployment is rising and job openings have crashed. It looks recessionary. Let’s investigate with a series of pictures. Job openings and unemployment level from the BLS, chart by Mish Job openings have plunged from a peak of 12.2 million in March of 2022 to 8.1 million in April of 2024. Openings data …
Troubling economic data is rushing in on many fronts, from employment to not-falling-fast-enough inflation. Here are three overlooked but reliable indicators I’m watching closely… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group Key Takeaways Small businesses are more pessimistic now than during the covid panic The banking sector’s fiscal position may decay further Credit card delinquencies are …
This was doing the rounds a while back (not sure of the source, but the numbers seem plausible to me)https://t.co/5QQUZScubn — The Baron of Watford 🇬🇧🇸🇬🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@rickysingtrader) June 11, 2024 Supply Chain Disruption: Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global technology supply chain, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. An invasion could disrupt the production and distribution …