We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession.
We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession. byu/nobjos inwallstreetbets
recession
French state business model unsustainable with 5% fiscal deficit; next recession will worsen it.
It is worse than that. Even their advantages have a downside. Unlike the US most EU countries have exercised good debt management and have long average maturities. A higher for longer scenario is not their friend as debt gets rolled …
A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 5 signs the US is on the brink of a downturn — all while the stock market shows concerning weakness beneath the surface of record highs
Posts from the economiccollapse community on Reddit The Buffett indicator doesn’t look so great, either. AI has pushed everything much higher. No one knows what effect it should really have on valuations and at some point a bubble does form. …
We Have The Data Now: MASSIVE Recession Has JUST Been Confirmed
Over the past few months, economic analysts and experts have been sounding the alarm about a recession. There have been increasing concerns about economic instability, with these worries echoing in financial markets and boardrooms nationwide. Now, a surge of data …
Tampa Food Bank chief notes traffic doubling to 40k/month amid deepening recession.
Head of Tampa Food Bank has seen traffic double to 40k/month in last few months. This is a nationwide phenomenon as recession deepens. Most on this feed in stock market or watch it closely. Those who need help have no …
We are already in a recession
We are already in a recession byu/Teckel22 inwallstreetbets Top Wall Street analyst issues stark warning for stocks Wall Street’s most-vocal bear sees a big correction for U.S. stocks coming, even as benchmarks continue to print records, but he sees the …
When will they announce that we are in a recession?
It has been a rolling recession for years. Real estate, materials, energy producers, industrials, small caps, consumer staples, cyclicals… Fed's QT and rate hikes has been working. The script should flip when rate cuts commence and the dollar rolls over …
The recent drop in this economic indicator signals 2024 recession, mirroring past sharp downturns.
This economic indicator just saw a big move down At this rate, the recession threshold will be hit in 2024 The last 3 times it was hit ended in sharp economic downturns Leading to significant stock market declines pic.twitter.com/3h673lqYys — …
3rd largest economy is in a recession. Households spending declined in the last 14 out of 15 months.
THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING: Japan households spending declined in the last 14 out of 15 months. Meanwhile, Japan's GDP shrank at an annualized pace of 2.9% in Q1 2024, rose slightly by 0.1% in Q4 2023 and contracted by a …
Hard-landing recession? Citi just released their prediction that emergency rate cuts begin in September.
“Emergency rate cuts” equals hard-landing recession is inevitable and already underway. No central bank has ever “emergency rate cut” itself out of a recession. https://t.co/QP44holn9s — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) July 7, 2024 Negative growth in Full Time Work. No …
Over 50% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession. Experts disagree, but new data suggests the public might be right.
2/ Picture this: The US economy is a race car, and GDP is the speedometer In calm times, the needle stays steady, hovering above 2% And when it dips, we're entering a period of economic weakness — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
Canada’s unemployment shows it’s already in a severe recession & entered it before the U.S.
🇨🇦 Canada's unemployment shows it's already in a severe recession & entered it before the U.S. Canada also has the largest housing bubble in the world. https://t.co/LyJGxSqs05 pic.twitter.com/hg406OfFcg — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2024 BREAKING: Canada's financial regulator says they …
Multiple indicators suggest rising recession risks; H2 downturn increasingly likely.
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 …
WSJ: Even a Slowly Cooling Labor Market Often Ends With a Recession
The pandemic left the U.S. labor market badly overheated. Reopening businesses panicked at labor shortages, paying big raises to hire. As prices shot higher, fears rose of a wage-price spiral. Recently, though, the labor market has cooled, and indeed, looks …
Why Isn’t the U.S. Rolling Over Into Recession?
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist The most important thing for investors to understand about the economy is that “it is different this time.” We’ve already assessed how multiple previously accurate recession indicators (yield curve inversion, Sahm Rule trigger, etc.) …
It’s beginning to feel a lot like Recession
It’s beginning to feel a lot like #Recession pic.twitter.com/7SQZREU7hJ — 🤠Rabbi Weimar Silver Baron 🤠 (@BankerWeimar) June 26, 2024 Was today’s S&P Manufacturing PMI bullish? This is what it said… since so few read these Seems like #recession stuff 🤷 …
Even with a $2T deficit we’re still headed right into a recession
by Jo-89002 As of the past 12 months, the federal budget deficit in the United States totaled $2.2 trillion. This amount is up 64% from the $1.4 trillion deficit in Fiscal Year 2022 and more than twice as large as the deficit prior …
Global rate cuts: inflation up in Australia and Canada, stock crashes in Europe, China’s recession.
Australia and Canada cut rates, now inflation is re-accelerating in both those countries. Europe cut rates, now stocks are imploding. China cut rates, now they're in recession. All U.S. investors want to know is why can't we cut rates too? …
Walmart and Target’s profit drops may signal an imminent or ongoing recession, experts warn.
Both Walmart and Target have experienced significant decreases in profit for their first quarters, which could signal an oncoming recession—or a recession that we’re already in, according to experts.
State unemployment data, more nuanced than national, triggers Mel Rule, signaling recession likelihood.
The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more …
US LEI down 14.7%, CFNAI-GDP divergence hints at recession; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index contracts.
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing …
The CBO projects a $1.9 trillion deficit for FY 2024. If rate cuts are delayed and a recession occurs, the deficit could escalate even further.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has recently updated its projections for the U.S. government’s budget deficit. Here are the key points: Fiscal Year 2024 Deficit: The projected deficit for fiscal year 2024 is $1.9 trillion. Adjusted to exclude certain payment …
A US recession is becoming more likely with each passing month
A number of economic indicators associated with forecasting recessions are currently reporting warning signals. The Game of Trades investment research platform, pointed out the presence of serious difficulties in the labor market, where the pace of job cuts is accelerating aggressively. Historically, …
67% of middle-class Americans struggle with rising costs, creating a “selective recession” per JPMorgan.
67% of middle-class Americans express concern that their income isn’t keeping pace with the rising cost of living. This situation has led to what JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss calls a “selective recession.” While upper-income consumers fare better, lower-income Americans are struggling to …
20% of US unemployed are in California
California’s Share of Unemployed: California currently accounts for approximately 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, which is significantly higher than its 11% share of the labor force population. This indicates that a disproportionate number of unemployment claims are coming from California. California in a jam …
Strong growth doesn’t guarantee recession avoidance; US grew 2.5% pre-Great Recession onset.
Fantastic point! ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was …
Job Openings vs Unemployment Looks Very Much Like a Recession Has Begun
via Mike Shedlock Unemployment is rising and job openings have crashed. It looks recessionary. Let’s investigate with a series of pictures. Job openings and unemployment level from the BLS, chart by Mish Job openings have plunged from a peak of …
3 Recession Warning Signs for What’s Left of 2024
Troubling economic data is rushing in on many fronts, from employment to not-falling-fast-enough inflation. Here are three overlooked but reliable indicators I’m watching closely… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group Key Takeaways Small businesses are more pessimistic now than during …
China invading Taiwan could halve the stock market, triggering an immediate global recession.
This was doing the rounds a while back (not sure of the source, but the numbers seem plausible to me)https://t.co/5QQUZScubn — The Baron of Watford 🇬🇧🇸🇬🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@rickysingtrader) June 11, 2024 Supply Chain Disruption: Taiwan plays a crucial role in the …
Inflation rose 3.3% in May – not good news though. Recession, not price reductions
It may look like good news and the media will slant it to a FJ Biden win – but the reality isn’t price reductions – its a complete slow down of the economy. I am in construction and I can …