Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Jhoffman12 To start, I am not a Doomer and I have money in the market. I was looking at the unemployment rate recently just out of curiosity and saw a correlation between a recession and whenever there was a rise, which makes sense of course. What struck me though is when I started adding other …
JPMorgan analyst explains why he believes we’re in a ‘selective recession’ byu/Perfect_Alarm_2141 ineconomicCollapse I am looking forward to after Nov when they can just call it a recession. First they will speculate if it will be a “good christmas” or not with ever more anxiety… then in early Jan we can just admit how bad …
Jul NFP came in at +114K, the 2nd lowest since Dec 2020. Apr (+108K) was the lowest since Dec 2020. In the last 4 months NFP averaged +154K, a far cry from 250K-300K job gains per month we thought the economy was adding just a couple of months ago. Namely, downward revisions… pic.twitter.com/OujQhTohSR — Marko …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepped up to the podium at Jackson Hole and announced the inflation fight was over – because the balance of economic risks has shifted. Here’s what they’re so worried about… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group Remember how the Biden administration, the Fed, and corporate media has kept saying the economy …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Did wages rise 10-fold to match the 10-fold rise in the cost of a modest house? No. That is social recession in a nutshell. A reader asked about the term social recession which he’d noted in my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. Here is …
Home Depot just reported one of their biggest sales misses in years, with same-store sales dropping -3.6% YoY in Q2 2024. This is one of the biggest sales drops since the 2008-09 housing crash, and suggests that the US Economy and Housing Market is on fragile footing.
by Michael In your opinion, does it feel like we are in the middle of a recession right now? If you feel that way, you are definitely not alone. In fact, as you will see below, most Americans believe that the U.S. is currently experiencing a recession. Large employers have been conducting mass layoffs from …
I now predict something that is not priced into ANY Wall Street earnings model: A secular Tech recession. I base this on the fact that the Cloud outsourcing bubble that began during the pandemic is now four years old and encompasses the last manic AI melt-up phase. Which will… pic.twitter.com/8Bbv8hmzj9 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 13, …
Are rate cuts bullish? No. Is the worst over? No. Can Wall Street be trusted? No. The chart of the week: "Not this again!" pic.twitter.com/ArMnkGs4vS — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 9, 2024 It took all week but the S&P 500 has rallied back to Friday's closing level. It was a week to nowhere and no net …
by Mike Maharrey America runs on debt. And American consumers may be getting close to their credit card limits, yet another signal the U.S. economy could be teetering on the brink of a recession. (If it’s not there already.) According to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve, revolving credit cratered in June for the …
by Mike Shedlock Trump’s strategy has gone from boring to shockingly bizarre and counterproductive. Does Trump think his opponent is Brian Kemp or Kamala Harris? What about recession? Walz? Image by Mish Two Notes to Republicans (Democrats and Independents Too) I am going to blast trump quite a bit. Towards the end of this post, I …
One must wonder how much a 6% GDP deficit in a 2% GDP economy is hiding actual recession. Here is the monthly hiring rate: pic.twitter.com/nVNbmA9ANm — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 8, 2024 Simple https://t.co/pnXlhL7zAN pic.twitter.com/mPqlutVkDc — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) August 8, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1821526742135079234 This is the highest S&P 100 (mega cap) volume since the pandemonium. The top …
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind. When asked if he had changed his view from February that markets were too optimistic on recession risks, Dimon said the odds …
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July. The ISM services index recorded a 51.4% reading for …
"Recession Triggered" The Everything Bubble pops as jobs collapse and the dreaded Sahm Rule triggers. Japan's implosion is icing on the cake. Morgan and Citi are now predicting a full point of rate cuts in the next 2 meetings — that qualifies as panic in Central Banking.… pic.twitter.com/pPHTDXMDMz — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) August …
The economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, with the unemployment rate skyrocketing up to 4.3% from its low last year. Moreover – 7.2 million Americans are now unemployed.
Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession. byu/External-Noise-4832 inconspiracy Stocks sunk on Friday morning after investors were spooked by a weak jobs report. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in almost three years – hitting 4.3 percent in …
The odds of a recession are very high according to this chart. Continued Claims 2-year average slope turning up has been very accurate in predicting recessions. Is this time different? pic.twitter.com/AUEcsurveJ — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) July 30, 2024 Construction job openings starting to blow out, this is what I have been waiting for as residential …
"US data consistency surprising to the downside since May has re-kindled recession concerns among US credit investors." – BofA Seliger pic.twitter.com/I4Wkn40UWg — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 29, 2024 "The US economy is slowing, which is just fine with the Fed," per Bloomberg. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 29, 2024 BREAKING: Personal saving rate declined to 3.4% …
Alphabet’s earnings call revealed a possible delay in Gen AI adoption, and a possible Gen AI capex overinvestment. Thus, the Alphabet earnings report potentially triggered the Gen AI bubble burst. The S&P 500 could drop by over 50% if the Gen AI bubble burst is followed by a recession, which is what happened during the 2000 …
By Martin Armstrong The government insists that the economy is fine, thriving perhaps, and has asked the public to pay no mind to their current financial situation. No one, aside from those living off government assistance, are better off now than they were four years ago. Americans cannot be gas lit into believing the economy …
by Mike Shedlock Two of us are still adamant that a recession has started. The other is Danielle DiMartino Booth, in her best video yet. Please take a look. GDP Rises 2.8 Percent, So What? Following today’s GDP report, many people are crowing “no recession”. Well, we’ll see about that. I side with the even …
https://twitter.com/GayBearRes/status/1816446012275229105 Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they won’t be able to pay their bills is actually higher today than it was back …
by Michael Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they won’t be able to pay their bills is actually higher today than it was …
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector has indeed been experiencing a prolonged period of contraction. The ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, has shown a consistent decline, indicating that the sector has not seen sustained expansion. This trend is significant as it highlights ongoing challenges within the manufacturing …
There is going to be a major depression after the election regardless of who wins. It is going to be far worse than the great depression in 1929. Nothing and no one can stop it. It is far too late to be stopped. The only question is who can lead us out of it in …
