A hub for independent voices and signals
JPMorgan analyst explains why he believes we’re in a ‘selective recession’ byu/Perfect_Alarm_2141 ineconomicCollapse I am looking forward to after Nov when they can just call it a recession. First they will speculate if it will be a “good christmas” or …
Jul NFP came in at +114K, the 2nd lowest since Dec 2020. Apr (+108K) was the lowest since Dec 2020. In the last 4 months NFP averaged +154K, a far cry from 250K-300K job gains per month we thought the …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepped up to the podium at Jackson Hole and announced the inflation fight was over – because the balance of economic risks has shifted. Here’s what they’re so worried about… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Did wages rise 10-fold to match the 10-fold rise in the cost of a modest house? No. That is social recession in a nutshell. A reader asked about the term social recession which he’d noted in …
Home Depot just reported one of their biggest sales misses in years, with same-store sales dropping -3.6% YoY in Q2 2024. This is one of the biggest sales drops since the 2008-09 housing crash, and suggests that the US Economy …
by Michael In your opinion, does it feel like we are in the middle of a recession right now? If you feel that way, you are definitely not alone. In fact, as you will see below, most Americans believe that …
I now predict something that is not priced into ANY Wall Street earnings model: A secular Tech recession. I base this on the fact that the Cloud outsourcing bubble that began during the pandemic is now four years old and …
Are rate cuts bullish? No. Is the worst over? No. Can Wall Street be trusted? No. The chart of the week: "Not this again!" pic.twitter.com/ArMnkGs4vS — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 9, 2024 It took all week but the S&P 500 has …
by Mike Maharrey America runs on debt. And American consumers may be getting close to their credit card limits, yet another signal the U.S. economy could be teetering on the brink of a recession. (If it’s not there already.) According …
by Mike Shedlock Trump’s strategy has gone from boring to shockingly bizarre and counterproductive. Does Trump think his opponent is Brian Kemp or Kamala Harris? What about recession? Walz? Image by Mish Two Notes to Republicans (Democrats and Independents Too) I …
One must wonder how much a 6% GDP deficit in a 2% GDP economy is hiding actual recession. Here is the monthly hiring rate: pic.twitter.com/nVNbmA9ANm — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 8, 2024 Simple https://t.co/pnXlhL7zAN pic.twitter.com/mPqlutVkDc — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) August 8, 2024 …
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind. When asked if he had changed his …
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew …
"Recession Triggered" The Everything Bubble pops as jobs collapse and the dreaded Sahm Rule triggers. Japan's implosion is icing on the cake. Morgan and Citi are now predicting a full point of rate cuts in the next 2 meetings — …
The economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, with the unemployment rate skyrocketing up to 4.3% from its low last year. Moreover – 7.2 million Americans are now unemployed.
Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession. byu/External-Noise-4832 inconspiracy Stocks sunk on Friday morning after investors were spooked by a weak jobs report. The unemployment …
The odds of a recession are very high according to this chart. Continued Claims 2-year average slope turning up has been very accurate in predicting recessions. Is this time different? pic.twitter.com/AUEcsurveJ — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) July 30, 2024 Construction job …
"US data consistency surprising to the downside since May has re-kindled recession concerns among US credit investors." – BofA Seliger pic.twitter.com/I4Wkn40UWg — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 29, 2024 "The US economy is slowing, which is just fine with the Fed," …
Alphabet’s earnings call revealed a possible delay in Gen AI adoption, and a possible Gen AI capex overinvestment. Thus, the Alphabet earnings report potentially triggered the Gen AI bubble burst. The S&P 500 could drop by over 50% if the …
By Martin Armstrong The government insists that the economy is fine, thriving perhaps, and has asked the public to pay no mind to their current financial situation. No one, aside from those living off government assistance, are better off now …
by Mike Shedlock Two of us are still adamant that a recession has started. The other is Danielle DiMartino Booth, in her best video yet. Please take a look. GDP Rises 2.8 Percent, So What? Following today’s GDP report, many …
https://twitter.com/GayBearRes/status/1816446012275229105 Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they …
by Michael Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry …
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector has indeed been experiencing a prolonged period of contraction. The ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, has shown a consistent decline, indicating that the sector has not …
There is going to be a major depression after the election regardless of who wins. It is going to be far worse than the great depression in 1929. Nothing and no one can stop it. It is far too late …
We need a recession so bad pic.twitter.com/Od02OQpMVB — Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) July 19, 2024 An all-time high 30% of the population have a stock portfolio worth more than $500,000 pic.twitter.com/WaII8aGiAl — Barchart (@Barchart) July 20, 2024
