Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Recent reports indicate the economy is forecasted to contract by 0.2% in 2024, a significant drop from earlier growth projections. The downturn is driven by the loss of Russian energy supplies and broader global economic challenges. As Europe’s largest economy, this poses major concerns for the broader Eurozone. BREAKING: 🇩🇪 Germany in recession – Bloomberg …
Recession is coming byu/bdogwu inwallstreetbets
by Mike Shedlock The McKelvey-PMES recession indicator dipped a bit in September but the signal still implies recession. 100 percent of the time, with no false positives or negatives, under current conditions, the economy has been in recession. The odds are not 100 percent because the NBER sets recession dates, not these charts. What is …
2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024 4/ So, where's the recession now? GDP growth in the US is still at a healthy 2% The job market remains …
Jeffery Gundlach, a well-known investor, has indeed expressed concerns about the U.S. economy. He mentioned that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are arriving too late and that the mounting job losses indicate the U.S. economy is already in a recession. 45% of America has been in a recession for some time. When you can't afford …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x415sUMvNjk The US economy has been struggling for some time, and the situation has worsened with the onset of a recession. The recession is here, and it’s not looking pretty. Despite the optimism and reassurances from various sources, the reality is that the recession is expected to have a severe impact. Today, we will examine …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=580A There’s good news in another corner of today’s report: Americans are saving more than previously thought. The personal saving rate, a measure of the disposable income left over after Americans pay their taxes and regular expenses, was 4.8% in August. The July reading was revised upward, from 2.9% to 4.9%. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/pce-report-for-august-inflation-data-in-the-spotlight-after-fed-s-half-point-rate-cut/card/so-much-for-that-red-flag-consumers-are-saving-more-new-data-shows-b9FLxHAtnRTjI2fZIKgC h/t im____new____here
The first signs of weakness came after China’s HY real estate index fell a massive 82% in just over 2 years. This came as Evergrande, one of China’s real estate giants, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. This put the index back down to 2008-levels, but barely anyone talked about it. pic.twitter.com/OYhpxKCVBo — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist Outside of the U.S., the world economy is in serious trouble. Europe is teetering on the verge of recession with its collective economy barely growing for three quarters in a row. Germany, the largest most dynamic economy in the EU has only just established a new high in its …
⚠️US ECONOMY HAS: 1) 1 MILLION full-time jobs lost in a year 2) ALL JOBS REVISED DOWN BY 818K for the 12 months through March 2024 3) 452 BIG bankruptcies in 2024, 2nd most in 14 years 4) $2.1tn excess savings gone in 3 years 5) $35.3T DEBT – record👇https://t.co/uPmnoHiZaB — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) …
Hopefully. This is disgusting and needs to regress to the mean pic.twitter.com/qU2EOpjj5O — Jesse From NJ (@whiteneck81) September 24, 2024 ⚠️CHINA UNLEASHED THE BIGGEST STIMULUS PACKAGE YET TO BOOST THE CRATERING PROPERTY MARKET AND THE ECONOMY⚠️ 1) The People’s Bank of China cut mortgage rates for individual borrowers as well as its Reserve Requirement Ratio …
by Stargazer5781 Since the 10 – 2-year yield curve recently normalized I was curious if the same were true of the near-term forward spread (10-year – 3-month), which the Federal Reserve previously announced as the most accurate predictor of recession available. It is still inverted as I write this, but what I found more interesting …
🚨MARKET PRICING SIGNALS A 100% PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION🚨 The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. pic.twitter.com/AHZtUBrZ3Z — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 22, 2024 …
via Tom McClellan The folks at Cass Information Systems spend their time gathering a lot of data about how much money gets spent on shipping things, and their data show that the U.S. is already in a recession of economic activity. This week’s chart features a fun comparison I put together, comparing the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index …
FedEx CEO says “The magnitude of the Fed rate cuts . . . signals the weakness of the current environment,” as priority shipments between businesses, a bell-weather of the economy, dropped FedEx reported a steep quarterly profit drop and lowered its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday after its customers continued to trade down from speedy, …
by confoundedinterest17 Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork. Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than usual suggesting a larger than …
Multi-family delinquency rate pic.twitter.com/Ygj4URgZVt — Will DeCotiis (@Will_DeCotiis) September 19, 2024 2/ The recent unemployment rate came in at 4.2% Showing signs of a weakening labor market This has begun to spark recessionary concerns pic.twitter.com/Ig9umKI2aH — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 19, 2024 4/ The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm …
It’s a joke. The US took in less than $4.5T in income in 2023, yet serviced $33T in debt. The US debt was $5.6T 24 years ago (2000), but revenue was $2.025T. Interest payments were $660B in 2023 and $220B in 2000. Expected to be $890B in 2024. Point being, the US is being financed …
There’s a reason why the big boys have been selling and holding cash. The market may not correct right away but when it bottoms it will take years to recover. The difficulty will be determining when the bottom is in. — JettBlast (@JettBlast00) September 18, 2024 8/ The Fed cuts rates in response to economic …
The Federal Reserve’s actions during the COVID-19 crisis were extensive and went beyond just purchasing government securities. The Federal Reserve took unprecedented measures to support the economy. By the end of 2020, the Fed had purchased approximately $3.5 trillion in government securities. This was part of a broader effort that included various lending programs and other financial …
Claudia Sahm knows the job numbers are much worse than the government data shows. Her indicator showed recession 2 reports ago 👀 — Gimme3Steps (@TheSouthGAJohn) September 17, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836012662272020707 Most uncertain FOMC meeting on record BofA pic.twitter.com/WkQhKaPFcE — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 17, 2024 🔥FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME …
by pentoport The labor market is clearly weakening. But in reality, this is what needs to happen. Short-term pain is needed to reconcile the great imbalances created by decades of free money. The alternative is intractable inflation that renders the middle class into penury. The most recent ADP employment report showed job growth in August …
OPEC has recently reduced global growth expectations. h/t Infamous_Sympathy_91
Samsung Electronics, the world's top maker of smartphones, TVs and memory chips, is cutting up to 30% of its overseas staff at some divisions, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told @Reuters. Read more https://t.co/U07j1AM2pe pic.twitter.com/imSKS6qwyq — Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) September 11, 2024 Samsung is reportedly planning to announce some major layoffs worldwide …
by Mike Shedlock Let’s compare current Beige Book conditions to those at the beginning of the Great Recession. Beige Book January 2008 Let’s take a look at the Fed’s Beige Book Summary of Economic Conditions in the 12 Fed districts in January of 2008. The Great Recession had begun. Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest …
#Stocks are increasingly sure that the #economy will avoid a #recession.#Bonds…..not so much.h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/jGH6KyX8eY — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 30, 2024 The 10y2y Yield is back to the 0 line. The Inverted Yield Curve is one of the most accurate recession indicators. The longest inversion prior to 2022: 16 monthsThe current inversion: 24 months …
"It was all going so well" pic.twitter.com/ywaWoUuh9d — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 29, 2024 Explain this!Germany’s DAX Index Hits Record High while the economy is in recession! #Germany #Stocks #Gold #Recession #Inflation pic.twitter.com/DiLIwRZL8K — Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) August 30, 2024 Dollar General Misses Q2 Earnings, Lowers View on Soft Sales Trends Shares of Dollar General Corporation …
