recession

Now I am worried: “The probability of a US recession materializing in 2025 is 0%, according to a Monday note from Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo.”

pic.twitter.com/AjAiL7vFzA — Saw Chuck (@Saw_Chuck2023) December 25, 2024 RCH Fed: manufacturing contracts again in Dec w/ employment, new orders, and shipments all falling; although firms expect significantly better conditions 6 months from now, the sector is currently still hemorrhaging: pic.twitter.com/WQrxj4k76c — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 26, 2024 🚨🇺🇸BIDEN CAUGHT LYING ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET…AGAIN …

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Rising bond yields despite falling inflation and macro momentum signals worst-case scenario. Many investors lack recession experience, leading to a warped understanding of risk.

It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …

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Canada faces looming national recession with record population, shrinking job demand, and struggles.

1/ Look at this chart. 🇨🇦 job vacancies have plummeted to 572k in Q3 2024, a staggering 44.5% drop from the Q2 2022 peak. This is the lowest vacancy level since 2021. pic.twitter.com/9baBZ5yFht — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 23, 2024 3/ Employers aren’t just hiring less; 🇨🇦 labor demand is shrinking outright. Total jobs (filled + …

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California’s job market weakens; Nevada faces early labor market recession signs.

California’s job market worsens: employment drops, unemployment rises, labor force shrinks. https://t.co/ANUo7WJBMK — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 20, 2024 Nevada’s labor market shows recession signs: employment declines monthly since June. It 100% is. The entire situation is just getting worse, and frankly, nothing is being done besides tax abatements that aren't doing much. They should …

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People think the yield curve is broken as a recession indicator. People are dumb. The recession kicks off AFTER the curve UNINVERTS. So 2025 is looking bad.

Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024 h/t mark000

We are super close to implosion. Two rosy “strong/resilient” months then complete free fall… They declare recession is averted then MORE complacency occurs before the rug is pulled out beneath them

DUDE We are super close to implosion. Two rosy "strong/resilient" months then complete free fall IMO. Same playbook every cycle. They declare recession is averted then MORE complacency occurs before the rug is pulled out beneath themThose $GME swaps👀💥https://t.co/mq52SLvnLB pic.twitter.com/W6Xo0tDEIE — 🏴‍☠️Fidel Cashflow🏴‍☠️🇺🇸 (@fullfieldflicks) December 19, 2024 YOU. CANNOT. MAKE. THIS UP. Yesterday was October …

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This is always how a recession starts.

Always how a #Recession starts, I know, I was in college for one and graduated into a job market where even the best candidates could barely find employment. My first job was 80-100 hours a week for 30k a year. No joke. I did have boomers tell me they had it worse though pic.twitter.com/mjMmq4WHED — …

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PMI reports show downtrend; Empire State anomaly corrected, manufacturing in recession for two years.

Empire Fed Manufacturing index drops to 0.2, biggest fall since May 2023. I predicted this last month when it went ridiculously high for one period. A couple of things on PMI reports: First, don’t take any new print to mean anything significant. It’s a jagged sawtooth because they don’t do backward revisions. Just follow the …

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We’ve never seen the S&P 500 at all time highs with breadth this negative. Flawless 75-year recession predictor trigger. The Titanic has hit the iceberg. Secure your lifeboat before it’s too late.

We've never seen the S&P 500 at all time highs with breadth this negative. Let's do this. pic.twitter.com/3GuAVcn1l7 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 Linkhttps://t.co/A9JxrqvurY pic.twitter.com/8qaDVxDPM3 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 13, 2024 ⚠️CENTRAL BANKS ARE CUTTING RATES AS IF GLOBAL RECESSION IS HERE⚠️ Bank of Canada cut rates by 0.50% on Wednesday for the …

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How Does a Recession Actually Start?

Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn’t just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we’ve got the data for it …

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German confidence at crisis lows; Upcoming recession will hit Germany hard.

https://twitter.com/liberty_fan_/status/1862064036457631819 Germany faces high taxes; green populists push for even higher taxes. https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1862399801301635286 And inflation is rebounding: Good Morning from #Germany where #inflation has picked up for the 2nd straight month. In November, prices rose 2.2% YoY, up from 2% in October. The core #inflation rate accelerated to 3% YoY. pic.twitter.com/IK96JqAp11 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) …

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Key financial metrics echo 2009 lows as recession fears grip 2024-2025 outlook.

Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn’t seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn’t that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues …

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Small business earnings are sharply contracting, a clear warning sign of an impending recession.

WARNING: Small business earnings are contracting sharply This is typically seen heading into economic downturns pic.twitter.com/pxrdn3cxzP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 Small business earnings are sharply contracting, a clear warning sign of an impending economic downturn. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has remained below its 50-year average of 98 for 34 consecutive …

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The government is working to prevent a recession, but data signals an imminent downturn. Buckle up.

2/ Over the last 2 years, rates have risen from 0% to 5% at a very rapid pace pic.twitter.com/x4ZhknYJT2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 4/ According to the NBER, which officially defines recessions, 4 key metrics matter: – Unemployment– Personal income– GDP– Industrial production As of Q4 2024, none of these metrics indicate …

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“Right now, the average person feels like they’re in a recession because the REAL economy IS in a recession.”

Former asset manager @DowdEdward drives this point home, highlighting that real wage growth is at negative 2%. What this means in simple terms is that people have 2% LESS buying power through their wages than they did just a year ago. This economic reality paved the way for Trump’s victory because no matter how much …

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German swap spreads collapsing signals market fears of a prolonged recession and liquidity issues.

Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …

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Europe confronts a ‘full-blown recession’… Australia braces for economic hardship…

Trade wars, the pandemic, and geopolitical tensions have disrupted global supply chains. Reshoring efforts are increasing in an attempt to bring more manufacturing back to the US. Bank of America says domestic small- and mid-cap stocks in sectors like industrials and healthcare may benefit most. The 2000s was the golden era of globalization. The idea …

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This has never happened outside of a recession…

According to the most recent buyer and seller survey from the national Association of realtors home purchases by first time homebuyers have dropped to an all-time low. Housing has been unaffordable for a long time, especially for first time buyers but then who is buying houses?

What do you mean we are not in a recession? Demand is down so we are raising prices to increase revenue.

What do you mean we are not in a recession?#recession #gold pic.twitter.com/EncoUunkIR — Patrick Karim (@badcharts1) October 30, 2024 USA 🇺🇸 private sector #jobs growth negative, and even worse job losses in #manufacturing! 📉 🥶https://t.co/XnsimiGO3e pic.twitter.com/aNTB5BUkvc — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 1, 2024 #BLS #JobsReport Youth #unemployment 📈😬https://t.co/RwISk4Ukk4 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 1, 2024 …

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Bank of Canada’s 0.5% rate cut triggers stock market panic, intensifying recession fears.

It happened again. Today’s stock market plunge was sparked by an unsettling move from the Bank of Canada, cutting interest rates by 0.5%. The implications of this seemingly small shift are much more profound than they appear on the surface. Canada’s economy is slowing down at an alarming rate, and this drastic measure was taken …

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17 Indicators of Global Recession Are Clanging

Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, The smart money is selling, of course, for the clanging indicators are the dinner bell announcing the banquet of consequences has been served, and Nemesis doesn’t want the meal to get cold. Correspondent Wilson R. Logan kindly shared his list of 17 indicators of globally synchronized recession. In my view, each …

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This Was the Final Straw to the Global Economy! Weak Auto Production Signals Recession

This may end up being the final straw for what’s left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we’re getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is now rolling right on into the full thing. If this one goes, that’s usually it. …

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