A hub for independent voices and signals
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have …
1/ Look at this chart. 🇨🇦 job vacancies have plummeted to 572k in Q3 2024, a staggering 44.5% drop from the Q2 2022 peak. This is the lowest vacancy level since 2021. pic.twitter.com/9baBZ5yFht — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 23, 2024 3/ …
by notayesmanseconomics As we arrive in Christmas week we find that the data on the UK economy is sending a rather unseasonal message. Here is the official release from earlier. UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have …
California’s job market worsens: employment drops, unemployment rises, labor force shrinks. https://t.co/ANUo7WJBMK — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 20, 2024 Nevada’s labor market shows recession signs: employment declines monthly since June. It 100% is. The entire situation is just getting worse, …
Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: …
This is interesting: The Walmart Recession Signal has jumped to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic. This is a recession indicator measured by Walmart’s stock price, $WMT, divided by the S&P Global Luxury Index of luxury goods stocks. The …
DUDE We are super close to implosion. Two rosy "strong/resilient" months then complete free fall IMO. Same playbook every cycle. They declare recession is averted then MORE complacency occurs before the rug is pulled out beneath themThose $GME swaps👀💥https://t.co/mq52SLvnLB pic.twitter.com/W6Xo0tDEIE …
Always how a #Recession starts, I know, I was in college for one and graduated into a job market where even the best candidates could barely find employment. My first job was 80-100 hours a week for 30k a year. …
Empire Fed Manufacturing index drops to 0.2, biggest fall since May 2023. I predicted this last month when it went ridiculously high for one period. A couple of things on PMI reports: First, don’t take any new print to mean …
We've never seen the S&P 500 at all time highs with breadth this negative. Let's do this. pic.twitter.com/3GuAVcn1l7 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 Linkhttps://t.co/A9JxrqvurY pic.twitter.com/8qaDVxDPM3 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 13, 2024 ⚠️CENTRAL BANKS ARE CUTTING RATES AS IF …
by Michael Are you ready for economic conditions to get even worse in 2025? It would be difficult to find any economist that is willing to argue that global economic conditions are better in late 2024 than they were in …
Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn’t just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, …
https://twitter.com/liberty_fan_/status/1862064036457631819 Germany faces high taxes; green populists push for even higher taxes. https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1862399801301635286 And inflation is rebounding: Good Morning from #Germany where #inflation has picked up for the 2nd straight month. In November, prices rose 2.2% YoY, up from 2% …
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn’t seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly …
Wow $TGT got absolutely murdered today. 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 20, 2024 Target just reported quarterly EPS of $1.85, 19.5% below expectations of $2.30, on revenue of $25.7 billion, also below expectations. Not only did this market the …
WARNING: Small business earnings are contracting sharply This is typically seen heading into economic downturns pic.twitter.com/pxrdn3cxzP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 Small business earnings are sharply contracting, a clear warning sign of an impending economic downturn. The NFIB …
2/ Over the last 2 years, rates have risen from 0% to 5% at a very rapid pace pic.twitter.com/x4ZhknYJT2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 4/ According to the NBER, which officially defines recessions, 4 key metrics matter: – …
by DoubleAyy12 The question is not whether the US economy will enter a recession, because at some point it does. Most of the time the economy is expansion. However, the 10-year vs 3-month treasury shows the curve is about to …
Former asset manager @DowdEdward drives this point home, highlighting that real wage growth is at negative 2%. What this means in simple terms is that people have 2% LESS buying power through their wages than they did just a year …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates …
Trade wars, the pandemic, and geopolitical tensions have disrupted global supply chains. Reshoring efforts are increasing in an attempt to bring more manufacturing back to the US. Bank of America says domestic small- and mid-cap stocks in sectors like industrials …
According to the most recent buyer and seller survey from the national Association of realtors home purchases by first time homebuyers have dropped to an all-time low. Housing has been unaffordable for a long time, especially for first time buyers …
https://x.com/TruNorthAdvice/status/1852330810516406334
What do you mean we are not in a recession?#recession #gold pic.twitter.com/EncoUunkIR — Patrick Karim (@badcharts1) October 30, 2024 USA 🇺🇸 private sector #jobs growth negative, and even worse job losses in #manufacturing! 📉 🥶https://t.co/XnsimiGO3e pic.twitter.com/aNTB5BUkvc — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) …
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such …
It happened again. Today’s stock market plunge was sparked by an unsettling move from the Bank of Canada, cutting interest rates by 0.5%. The implications of this seemingly small shift are much more profound than they appear on the surface. …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, The smart money is selling, of course, for the clanging indicators are the dinner bell announcing the banquet of consequences has been served, and Nemesis doesn’t want the meal to get cold. Correspondent Wilson …
This may end up being the final straw for what’s left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we’re getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is …
Recent reports indicate the economy is forecasted to contract by 0.2% in 2024, a significant drop from earlier growth projections. The downturn is driven by the loss of Russian energy supplies and broader global economic challenges. As Europe’s largest economy, …
