Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Everyone "expects" the apocalypse… and nobody is actually trading it pic.twitter.com/KFF0544JgB — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 1, 2025 Free Trade ends this week. Along with a 45 year bull market for stocks. pic.twitter.com/YHnyWPTUuB — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 2, 2025 The stock market's CAPE ratio is clocking in at 35.6. It has only been higher than this …
This is insane. 50% of Gen Z and Millennials are still on their parent’s payroll. The average person is getting $18,000 from mom and dad 🤯 pic.twitter.com/3NPvSrorpu — Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) March 31, 2025 62% of Americans could come up with $2,000 in case of an emergency, the lowest on record, per Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/0rpUYZxK9J …
by David Haggith When money is a global weapon Today brought a storm of news strongly confirming all the points I laid out in my weekend Deeper Dive as to why we are certainly heading deep into a recession and into rising inflation at the same time, which would be “stagflation.” All contary to the one stock analyst I …
by Michael Have you ever not been able to sleep at night because you are stressed out about your finances? If so, you are certainly not alone. When there is simply not enough money coming in to pay all the bills, the pressure can be excruciating. The cost of food, housing and other essentials has been …
by Michael Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession? Nobody can deny that consumer confidence is plummeting, home sales are way down, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, thousands of stores are closing, and a global trade war has erupted. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently projecting that the U.S. economy …
TLDR: GDPNow estimates a -1.8% annualized GDP decline for Q1 2025, signaling contraction. Two straight quarters of GDP decline typically indicate a recession. Policy uncertainty, including tariffs and mass-firings, threatens further economic damage. Federal worker layoffs could devastate local economies, real estate, and key industries. Immigration policies may harm agriculture and tourism, worsening economic strain. …
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These are stress fractures in the system, warning signs that something is breaking. 🚨WARNING🚨 S&P500 2008 …
by Michael Is it just a coincidence that a large number of talking heads in the corporate media have all suddenly decided to start blaming Donald Trump for causing a “recession”? During the four years of the Biden administration those same voices insisted that there was no “recession” on the horizon even though homelessness was setting …
“China’s GDP figures originate from annual targets, not end-of-year calculations.” “It’s just a number with no real feeling behind it. Even if they claim 10% growth, I couldn’t refute it.” “We all knew when the target was set last year that it would be 5%.” “These figures are no longer reliable.” “How can GDP grow …
This Fed is completely detached from reality. Market weakness is already baked in. They’re driving blind! Average Hourly Work Week. Leading Indicator!!! Only time lower GFC! Powell said today the labor market showed no signs of weakness. FFR = 4.33% and Fed still doing QT!! r*=2.75% Powell’s Fed is living in an alternate universe. pic.twitter.com/28TVX2tnsv …
by Jesse Colombo Back in December, while much of the country was riding a wave of optimism over Donald Trump’s presidential victory, I warned that we were hurtling toward a recession—and saying that it may have already begun. I also noted that the increasing likelihood of a recession would drive up gold prices—and the recent surge is clear confirmation of …
All too often, when we talk economics and finance, we neglect the human side of the equation. GDP is about more than percentages – it’s about prosperity and confidence. Unemployment isn’t just a number, it’s real people who’ve lost their primary source of income. With that firmly in mind, today, we explore the saddest recession …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1892756066443640857 The housing market is in MUCH worse shape than 2008 pic.twitter.com/tsnp7DucXE — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 20, 2025 Look no further: pic.twitter.com/gJjpoaoj4W — Saw Chuck (@Saw_Chuck2023) February 21, 2025
To make America great again one thing we need to do is transition from an income-based tax system to a consumption-based tax system. Tariffs tax consumption. Since you get less of what you tax, tariffs reduce consumption. So, in the short run that means a severe U.S. recession. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 3, 2025 …
via James Rickards The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of …
Starbucks $SBUX said today it plans to cut the size of its menu by "roughly 30%" by the end of 2025 pic.twitter.com/nI6WTb1u4M — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 28, 2025 If you're renting, you might consider moving…. New tenant rents are absolutely collapsing. pic.twitter.com/85SfK07Kwu — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 29, 2025 3..2… https://t.co/Y63kXboqsd pic.twitter.com/5UOCxAb6Uc — The Great …
Bond experts sense slowing momentum, and it’s hard to ignore the warning signs. Something’s shifting beneath the surface. Why are yields falling when the Fed is going to pause on Wednesday at FOMC? What’s the bond market seeing that we aren’t? A recession? 💀 https://t.co/UR5ugAL8IA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 28, 2025 Those are the …
Calling for lower interest rates (immediately) and lower oil prices. Almost seems like he’s worried about a recession? 🤔 https://t.co/mr2r90HWIV — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) January 23, 2025 There is now only a 22% chance of a recession occurring within the next year, the lowest probability in 3 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/CtScwF3XJd — Barchart (@Barchart) January 23, …
As investors navigate the fluctuating landscape of 2025, certain dividend stocks continue to stand out for their resilience and reliability. Here, I’ll discuss ten noteworthy Forever Dividend Stocks that have not only weathered the market’s volatility but have consistently rewarded their investors with steady income. McDonald’s ($MCD) remains a staple in the fast-food industry, proving …
by Born_Bag_3244 Not an expert whatsoever, but I feel like all these signs are pretty bad omen. Your thoughts?
by Mike Maharrey With American consumers using credit cards to make ends meet month after month, and interest rates well over 20 percent, it’s only a matter of time before the spending spree comes to an end. After all, credit cards have this inconvenient thing called a limit. And there are increasing signs that the …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …
by confoundedinterest17 Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down?? The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, 1980. Each negative inversion was …
Recession dont exist in a AI market, its a thing of the past. Economic textbooks are being rewritten. White-Collar Recession: A Warning Sign A white-collar recession often serves as a precursor to a broader market downturn. Similar trends were observed in 2000 and 2008, both of which were followed by recessions in 2001–2002 and 2009, …
History suggests the recent uninversion of the 10y-2y chart portends a recession to begin soon…. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CyYI Rest of world going down fast as we speak. look under your desk. will drag US down. decoupling is fantasy. The government funded distractions always hit when they're about to crash markets — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 2, 2025 Locals …
Another Biden Miracle: Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50% 🤯 https://t.co/h4xXSsJVzE — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 30, 2024 Volatility-based breakout signals risk-off scenario, reminiscent of COVID-19 and 2008 crises. A breakout pattern based on volatility has just triggered a warning signal similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 crash. …
We already know where this is going. We’ve been in a recession for probably at least a year (if not more) under Biden. As soon as Trump gets into office, they’ll reveal the real numbers and blame Trump for the recession. Don’t let them lie! 🚨US PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IS IN A RECESSION🚨 US private …
