Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by David Haggith The moves are not big yet, but there are good reasons for that, and they are all in the wrong direction. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP just went from a positive 2.4% annual growth rate to -0.3%. It will, of course, take two consecutive quarters of the “growth” rate …
If we want to avoid a debt crisis, we need to get our deficit down to 3% of GDP. There are many ways to do that, using the levers of cost cuts, interest rates, and revenue. But we need to do it fast. The question for policymakers is how much can you deliver from each …
The latest GDP data just dropped from the U.S., China, Europe, and Mexico… And at first glance?It doesn’t look disastrous.But under the surface — there’s a payback wave building.U.S. GDP shrank.China’s manufacturing is rolling over.Mexico barely avoided technical… — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) May 1, 2025
Oil is in free fall lately. $58 today. This is one of the first signs of a recession. We’re getting to price levels near what it costs producers to pull it out of the ground. On the bright side it helps with inflation because it’s a major input cost for mfg. pic.twitter.com/NIdahDZX6m — QE Infinity …
According to Polymarket, recession odds have climbed back near their April 9th peak. GDP Leaked? pic.twitter.com/3O5XkEYKyU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 29, 2025 $2,900 tariff on a $2,100 purchase from Hong Kong. You can kiss the global economy goodbye. Unavoidable now. Even if we stopped all of this tomorrow. Will take a very long time to …
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/VLdYkdKqYr — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 29, 2025 "S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable," per Bloomberg — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 29, 2025 Dallas Fed logistics respondent: “Ocean container bookings have …
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already …
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year. We better hope there’s no recession, because if there is, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates could be a real drag on the market, in my view. pic.twitter.com/gDXHwh4KDC — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 28, 2025 Goldman Sachs is now projecting …
1/ Container ships from China to US down 30%+ already. This isn't a far-off risk – it's happening NOW and will ripple through supply chains within weeks Container departures literally falling off a cliff since tariffs announced pic.twitter.com/Wb6GQz0iUP — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) April 27, 2025 3/ Markets missing the biggest risk: S&P 500 revenue from China …
Trade wars aren’t the real threat, South Korea’s collapse signals global disaster. While everyone's still blaming trade wars for the global slowdown… The truth is far more dangerous. South Korea — one of the world's largest economies — was already collapsing before the first tariffs even hit. ✅ GDP negative for a full year ✅ …
That's the week. Bulls just bought the right shoulder of a head and shoulder top that is equally overbought now as it was on the left shoulder. The "E" stands for Tech earnings. Have a great weekend everyone. pic.twitter.com/PfRP5cq92h — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 25, 2025 Just a few days to go in the month. This …
As said before: German economy is and has been strongly focused on export. Currently Germany is losing two of his three biggest export markets (USA and China) while the latter also became a huge competitor on international markets in the last two decades… What else should happen to German economy under these circumstances? Especially since …
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/EHDZPwdxiP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 24, 2025 Feels like 2008 all over again, according to this price analogy. pic.twitter.com/28V5dOW5hL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 24, 2025 2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? We all know there’s a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he realizes there’s nothing but …
Why is law school a recession indicator?? — frost paladin (@jots0x) April 23, 2025 It takes you out of the game for 3 years while you're getting your degree. In theory, you return more qualified. Means they can't find a job with their current qualifications and they already have a BA. — Sorry T. Offend …
🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. An all-time record low! Chart: @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/wmKOQNUzGZ — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 23, 2025 Goldman Sachs, $GS, says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 23, 2025 JPMORGAN: MIGRATION CONCERNS HURTING U.S. TOURISM This is …
“When you think a recession is coming, it generally pays to sell first and ask questions later. Waiting for confirmation that the economy is declining is just too costly.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/1FJyXAYRLE — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 18, 2025 WallStreetBets Calling For A Recession pic.twitter.com/R6yPWMOEN9 — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) April 18, 2025 Interesting https://t.co/IvAGawYORb …
This chart shows the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months, based on Wall Street Journal surveys of economists from 2023 to 2025. The data points reflect the average response in each survey. In early 2023, the likelihood was around 60%. It gradually declined through 2023 and 2024, hitting a …
Rick Rieder of Blackrock: – economy in recession now – we are adding gold -we like cash Jesus pic.twitter.com/6Cfv3MsYo9 — Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) April 16, 2025 GOLD $3300 Bucks https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold Trump will NOT relent on China. Otherwise, the rest of his administration will be one of a Paper Tigre. — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) …
by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted yield curve, typically indicates imminent recession within 6 months. It has successfully predicted every US …
A growing majority of America’s top executives now expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the near future, according to a survey released Monday. Of the more than 300 CEOs polled in April, 62% said they forecasted a recession or other economic downturn in the next six months, according to Chief Executive, an …
Breaking: There is no longer a "likelihood" of a recession; it's either coming or here, according to CEO and investors I speak to. Here's their logic: Companies clearly cut back on spending in run-up to the tariff war. When it hit, they went into full retrenchment mode. Now amid… — Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) April 13, …
NEW: RAY DALIO SAYS “I’M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING WORSE THAN A RECESSION… WE HAVE SOMETHING THAT IS MUCH MORE PROFOUND, WE HAVE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE MONETARY ORDER” pic.twitter.com/Yoquwol5UI — DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) April 13, 2025 Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said on Sunday that he is worried that the turmoil resulting from President Donald …
by Mike Maharrey There is growing evidence that Americans may be edging close to the credit limit. That’s bad news for an economy that has run on credit cards for the last few years and adds to worries that the U.S. could be barreling toward a recession. After slowing in January, consumer borrowing crashed in …
With the global tariffs and the stock market chaos, Jamie Dimon states that a recession is on the horizon, warning that “we will see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time.” pic.twitter.com/HNmc9zZcW2 — Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) April 9, 2025 Let’s just all admit it. The chances of a recession are …
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Bessent: Tariffs do not risk recession, not concerned #MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) April 6, 2025 Lately, critics have been warning that Trump’s tariff moves might tank the economy. But not everyone’s buying the fear. Robert Bessent, a top Trump economic advisor, just came out and said it flat: tariffs do not risk a recession and …
PUT THIS ON BLAST: Trump’s tariffs just pushed the risk of a U.S. and global recession this year up to 60%—up from 40%, according to J.P. Morgan. THATS NOT ALL: The White House made up the numbers—Trump Math 🤡 pic.twitter.com/Y98nhtO266 — Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) April 4, 2025 JPMorgan suggested that the chance of a recession …
Gold now getting murdered along with everything else as the world faces a global margin call. Futures worsening. It’s going to be a long day. Chaos 💀 pic.twitter.com/l6x2vnDAYD — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 3, 2025 The market's drop in response to tariffs is massive, and it will take time to emerge from this chaos. A …
Downgrade fever is here. It’s coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy’s loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to …