Can we do it without recession?
If we want to avoid a debt crisis, we need to get our deficit down to 3% of GDP. There are many ways to do that, using the levers of cost cuts, interest rates, and revenue. But we need to …
recession
Global GDP released – U.S. GDP shrank. China’s manufacturing is rolling over. Mexico barely avoided technical recession. Europe? Artificially propped up…
The latest GDP data just dropped from the U.S., China, Europe, and Mexico… And at first glance?It doesn’t look disastrous.But under the surface — there’s a payback wave building.U.S. GDP shrank.China’s manufacturing is rolling over.Mexico barely avoided technical… — Jeffrey …
Oil is in free fall lately. $58 today. This is one of the first signs of a recession. Odds soar to 70%, a new high
Oil is in free fall lately. $58 today. This is one of the first signs of a recession. We’re getting to price levels near what it costs producers to pull it out of the ground. On the bright side it …
According to Polymarket, recession odds have climbed back near their April 9th peak. GDP Leaked?
According to Polymarket, recession odds have climbed back near their April 9th peak. GDP Leaked? pic.twitter.com/3O5XkEYKyU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 29, 2025 $2,900 tariff on a $2,100 purchase from Hong Kong. You can kiss the global economy goodbye. Unavoidable now. …
The GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. Bloomberg: “S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable,”
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/VLdYkdKqYr — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 29, 2025 "S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable," per …
Dalio warns world order near breaking point. U.S. debt addiction risks collapse of trust in dollar. The recession is likely unavoidable at this point.
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing …
S&P earnings surge expected but recession risk looms large. Wall Street bets on 26 percent growth through next year. Risk Reward doesnt look great.
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year. We better hope there’s no recession, because if there is, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates could be a real drag on the market, in my …
Apollo’s Slok just dropped a bomb: The Trade Reset Recession is coming and nobody’s pricing it in
1/ Container ships from China to US down 30%+ already. This isn't a far-off risk – it's happening NOW and will ripple through supply chains within weeks Container departures literally falling off a cliff since tariffs announced pic.twitter.com/Wb6GQz0iUP — junkbondinvestor …
Global slowdown just getting started. US recession probabilities are rising. This might be the year we finally get our recession.
Trade wars aren’t the real threat, South Korea’s collapse signals global disaster. While everyone's still blaming trade wars for the global slowdown… The truth is far more dangerous. South Korea — one of the world's largest economies — was already …
Bulls just bought the right shoulder of a head and shoulder top that is equally overbought now as it was on the left shoulder. We are already in a recession?
That's the week. Bulls just bought the right shoulder of a head and shoulder top that is equally overbought now as it was on the left shoulder. The "E" stands for Tech earnings. Have a great weekend everyone. pic.twitter.com/PfRP5cq92h — …
Germany has been in recession for 6 quarters—the longest contraction in its post-reunification history
As said before: German economy is and has been strongly focused on export. Currently Germany is losing two of his three biggest export markets (USA and China) while the latter also became a huge competitor on international markets in the …
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. Are utilities pricing-in a recession?
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/EHDZPwdxiP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 24, 2025 Feels like 2008 all over again, according to this price analogy. pic.twitter.com/28V5dOW5hL — Guilherme …
The Wile E. Coyote Recession
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? We all know there’s a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote …
Law school applications at all time highs. Major recession indicator
Why is law school a recession indicator?? — frost paladin (@jots0x) April 23, 2025 It takes you out of the game for 3 years while you're getting your degree. In theory, you return more qualified. Means they can't find a …
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. Economic output hits 16-month low in April. Goldman Sachs says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession
🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. An all-time record low! Chart: @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/wmKOQNUzGZ — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 23, 2025 Goldman Sachs, $GS, says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and …
When recession fears rise, sell first, ask questions later…
“When you think a recession is coming, it generally pays to sell first and ask questions later. Waiting for confirmation that the economy is declining is just too costly.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/1FJyXAYRLE — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 18, 2025 WallStreetBets …
Economists now see a 45% likelihood of a US recession occurring in the next 12 months, up from 22% at the start of the year
This chart shows the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months, based on Wall Street Journal surveys of economists from 2023 to 2025. The data points reflect the average response in each survey. In early …
Rick rieder says economy in recession now. Blackrock adds gold and prefers cash. GOLD $3300+ Bucks
Rick Rieder of Blackrock: – economy in recession now – we are adding gold -we like cash Jesus pic.twitter.com/6Cfv3MsYo9 — Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) April 16, 2025 GOLD $3300 Bucks https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold Trump will NOT relent on China. Otherwise, the rest of …
3-month yield explodes 54 bps in seconds, yield curve uninverts recession countdown begins
by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted …
60% of CEOs brace for recession within six months…
A growing majority of America’s top executives now expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the near future, according to a survey released Monday. Of the more than 300 CEOs polled in April, 62% said they forecasted a …
CEOs and investors agree: Recession is here or imminent…Companies slashed spending before tariff war, now full retrenchment mode…
Breaking: There is no longer a "likelihood" of a recession; it's either coming or here, according to CEO and investors I speak to. Here's their logic: Companies clearly cut back on spending in run-up to the tariff war. When it …
Ray Dalio warns of monetary order collapse, fears something worse than recession is unfolding…
NEW: RAY DALIO SAYS “I’M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING WORSE THAN A RECESSION… WE HAVE SOMETHING THAT IS MUCH MORE PROFOUND, WE HAVE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE MONETARY ORDER” pic.twitter.com/Yoquwol5UI — DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) April 13, 2025 Bridgewater founder Ray …
Recession Warning? Consumer Borrowing Tanked in February
by Mike Maharrey There is growing evidence that Americans may be edging close to the credit limit. That’s bad news for an economy that has run on credit cards for the last few years and adds to worries that the …
Jamie Dimon warns of imminent recession, expects more credit crisis… Peter Schiff warns U.S. stock market rally is a bear market rally, sell opportunity
With the global tariffs and the stock market chaos, Jamie Dimon states that a recession is on the horizon, warning that “we will see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time.” pic.twitter.com/HNmc9zZcW2 — Ian Miles Cheong …
The Great 2008 Recession will repeat in 2025. Banks will fail, crypto and stock markets will collapse
Before we dive in… I gave you the best calls so far and warned you about the market dump I am asking only to follow me @bored2boar and RT this thread so more people notice my hard work It gives …
Tariffs won’t trigger a recession — and here’s why
Bessent: Tariffs do not risk recession, not concerned #MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) April 6, 2025 Lately, critics have been warning that Trump’s tariff moves might tank the economy. But not everyone’s buying the fear. Robert Bessent, a top Trump economic …
JPMorgan raises chance of recession to 60%
PUT THIS ON BLAST: Trump’s tariffs just pushed the risk of a U.S. and global recession this year up to 60%—up from 40%, according to J.P. Morgan. THATS NOT ALL: The White House made up the numbers—Trump Math 🤡 pic.twitter.com/Y98nhtO266 …
Gold falls with market amid global margin call, slow recovery expected post-tariffs. Polymarket gives 50% chance of U.S. recession this year—UBS warns of 5% inflation
Gold now getting murdered along with everything else as the world faces a global margin call. Futures worsening. It’s going to be a long day. Chaos 💀 pic.twitter.com/l6x2vnDAYD — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 3, 2025 The market's drop in response …
The ENTIRE Global Economy Just Entered Recession
Downgrade fever is here. It’s coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy’s loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that …
CAPE at 35.6, free trade ends, recession looms—yet markets party on
Everyone "expects" the apocalypse… and nobody is actually trading it pic.twitter.com/KFF0544JgB — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 1, 2025 Free Trade ends this week. Along with a 45 year bull market for stocks. pic.twitter.com/YHnyWPTUuB — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 2, 2025 The stock …