Tariffs won’t trigger a recession — and here’s why

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Lately, critics have been warning that Trump’s tariff moves might tank the economy. But not everyone’s buying the fear. Robert Bessent, a top Trump economic advisor, just came out and said it flat: tariffs do not risk a recession and he’s not concerned.

And he’s got a point.

There’s a basic misunderstanding about how tariffs work. Most people think they’re a blunt weapon that always hurts consumers and businesses. But that’s only half the story. What Bessent and others understand is that the U.S. economy is more resilient and more flexible than critics admit.

First, not all businesses operate on fat profit margins. Outside of software, most physical-goods companies operate on razor-thin margins — 5 to 10% is normal. Tariffs might hurt, but they don’t guarantee collapse. Smart businesses adapt, shift supply chains, cut costs, or focus on domestic markets. Some even thrive.

Second, other countries have been quietly hurting U.S. companies for years. Tariffs are just one part of a much bigger war. Nations use subsidies, quotas, regulatory red tape, product bans, labeling tricks, even currency manipulation to suppress American exports. These non-tariff barriers often go unnoticed — but they’re devastating.

Trump’s tariff formula is trying to address this imbalance. It’s not just about matching tariff rates — it’s about forcing fair play in a rigged global system.

Yes, markets may wobble in the short term. But calling tariffs a path to recession is like calling medicine poison. The dose and intent matter. The U.S. economy is strong, unemployment is low, and the manufacturing base needs breathing room to rebuild. This is part of that reset.

Bessent is calm for a reason. He knows what many miss: you can’t fix decades of trade abuse with polite diplomacy alone. Sometimes pressure is necessary and tariffs are one of the few tools that actually get attention.