Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It’s really interesting how AI will make those companies using it more profitable by shedding jobs- yet there is zero mention of the proposition that there will be less demand to buy their products if people don’t have a job — Jehovah (@renegade_56) August 4, 2025 Eye-opening chart, S&P 490 has had no earnings growth …
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history 🚨 Probably Fine? pic.twitter.com/ILr70bCct7 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 3, 2025 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash is now 30% of its total assets, the highest in its history. The company holds $344 billion in cash because it sees few good places to invest. …
UPS is closing 73 buildings and cutting 20,000 jobs. Amazon volume is down 50 percent. That’s not automation. That’s collapse. UPS says it’s “reconfiguring the network” but the closures are concentrated in retail-heavy states where consumer demand is evaporating. Q2 revenue fell nearly 3 percent. Peak season plans? Not submitted. That means retailers don’t know …
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Assuming the economy continues its downturn as all the major markets are pricing, what would that look like and what should we be looking for? That leads into the question of how deflationary money becomes a deflationary or depression economy in the first place. That means we need to examine economic mechanisms.
Three months ago, hotel operators were confident that the consumer downturn they were experiencing would end being a relatively quick pain. After the tariff matter was finally settled, Americans would sure go back to spending as they always seemed to. Instead, a whole bunch of critical and alarming data out just today has poured oceans …
Market runs on manufactured momentum and ticking clock… $VIX puts are being bought just before $SPY ramps like what's shown below to suppress vol further and cause an automatic rise in equity prices. This also happened yesterday and Monday. They didn't need to do this last week as the momentum trade was on its own. …
The U.S. economy is showing recession symptoms, even if the official label hasn’t been applied. The data is moving in one direction. Real consumption is falling. Housing is rolling over. Payrolls are being revised down. Construction is contracting. And the labor market is sending mixed signals that don’t add up. Start with consumption. Real personal …
Real estate and construction are considered bellwethers of the overall economy. Recently they’re not looking good – and this isn’t an isolated issue. It’s a warning sign of a crisis that could ripple through the entire economy… By Peter Reagan The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of …
#Citi bank is expecting #GOLD to go under $3000 / oz later this year. Is this an indirect signal that pricing of a recession is imminent? Why tell us now? Or, is a #Ratecut coming soon? SEE PIC. $GLD $BTC $SPY pic.twitter.com/S7FUX42IMb — Astro Zan (@alshfaw) June 18, 2025 Also one month earlier, Citigroup said …
The headlines keep flashing red. But when you follow the money, you get a different picture. Despite a world tangled in geopolitical tension and recession warnings, foreign investors are still gripping American stocks like they know something the headlines don’t. The numbers say it all. As of June 2024, Treasury data shows foreign holdings of …
It’s infuriating to watch economists cling to synchronized slowdown as some fancy buzzword while millions struggle. Wake up. These aren’t just charts. It’s people’s jobs, savings, hopes on the line. Global synchronized slowdown which may potentially lead to a global synchronized recession. https://t.co/dUqKbBlyZo — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 11, 2025 $SPY $QQQ Price action feels …
Once again markets are celebrating a "strong" May jobs report, with 139K jobs beating estimates by 10K, while ignoring the 95K downward revisions to the prior two months. But beneath the surface, the May jobs report, which showed even slower job growth than the prior month, was… — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 6, 2025 The …
5% GDP growth in the middle of a recession pic.twitter.com/lkW3z8SmKH — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 2, 2025 https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
The U.S. economy has officially entered a downturn, with the latest Q1 2025 GDP estimate confirming a 0.2 percent contraction. While this revision is slightly better than the initial 0.3 percent decline, it still marks the first economic shrinkage since 2022. This signals growing instability, with businesses and investors bracing for further turbulence. The primary …
*FED STAFF SAW RECESSION “ALMOST AS LIKELY’ AS MAIN FORECAST *FED MINUTES: TARIFFS MUCH LARGER, BROADER THAN EXPECTED pic.twitter.com/GoXICkMydr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 28, 2025 Federal Reserve officials are raising concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the weakening labor market. The latest FOMC minutes reveal growing worries that inflation could remain persistent, forcing difficult tradeoffs between …
Is higher unemployment coming to the US? US consumers' perception of the labor market has weakened to the second-lowest level since 2021. The difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful minus those saying they are hard to get fell to 13.2%, marking… pic.twitter.com/gv045S3LhL — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 28, 2025 …
Builders are sitting on more houses than they can sell, and that could spell trouble for the entire housing sector. We currently have the most homes for sale in the sunbelt in US history. This would be front page news if they didn't think it would cause a panic pic.twitter.com/FyhTIZu5ka — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May …
America’s most powerful banker has warned that the US economy faces a greater threat than a recession. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the threat of stagflation could still strike the US economy. Stagflation is the combination of economic stag-nation and in-flation. Prices continue to soar at the same time as unemployment rises …
The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go …
Now only 1% of fund managers now calling for a recession down from 42% last month…one of the biggest geopolitical blunders of our time… pic.twitter.com/X2RHX4FU3q — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) May 14, 2025 We are approaching the point where people are going to be panic buying equities because they are afraid of …
US executives are getting more concerned about the economy: The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022. This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010. Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown …
Google Searches for "Are we in a recession" rise to 2nd highest level in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/mZy4RToCGV — Barchart (@Barchart) May 10, 2025 People are starting to ask a familiar question again. Are we in a recession? That exact phrase is trending across search engines, just like it did in 2008. And that kind of …
The bottom 75% of Americans are in recession We’re at the point now where it’s really not debatable How long can the rich prop up the economy? pic.twitter.com/blRK3VoBJS — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) May 8, 2025 “.. We’re seeing pushback on items as small as taxi journeys.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/GGbzOXAoq1 — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 8, …
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
