recession

2026 recession odds rise to 49%; The labor market for the foreseeable future is absolutely cooked; Bank of America CEO warns the middle class is breaking

🚨 2026 RECESSION ODDS UP TO 49% pic.twitter.com/sb2XNapYJW — Micah (@micah_erfan) October 28, 2025 So if we layoff everyone to increase margins this year, who will have money left to buy your products next year? https://t.co/1h0rTviPXw pic.twitter.com/2kAtdSgs2B — Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) October 28, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1983199726452494695 The labor market is clearly weakening. Recent layoffs: 1. UPS: 48,000 …

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If we’re not in a recession, it would be the first time this UMichigan survey question on expected change in unemployment missed at this level

GOLDMAN: “.. the expected change in the unemployment rate over the next year has never been this bad outside recessionary periods since the University of Michigan started asking the question in 1978.” https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3m3p56fas7k2r If you're curious how the economy is doing, look at heavy truck sales. Combined with oil prices falling, this shows we're in …

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U.S. economy has lost momentum over the past 2 months, only 3 of 12 districts report growth. More than 20 US state economies are now in, or near, a recession. Junk bonds break 4-month downtrend.

Junk bonds are high-risk corporate debts offering higher returns to investors. The chart shows their yields (interest rates) had been falling for 4 months—a positive sign of lower perceived risk—but recently spiked to 6.84%, breaking that downtrend. Implications: Rising yields… — Grok (@grok) October 15, 2025 Junk bonds are high-risk corporate debts offering higher returns …

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US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels

🚨US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US-based employers have announced 946,426 job cuts year-to-date, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the second-largest total since the Great Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 years have seen higher layoffs. US… pic.twitter.com/SRbFzvWzjP — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 5, 2025 Employers across …

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+3.8% GDP vs. 22 states in recession — boom or bust?

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction. Job losses are mounting in states tied to manufacturing, farming, and transport, while high-cost states like Georgia are now seeing population pullbacks. Even California and New… — Simon Ree (@simon_ree) October 6, 2025 “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased …

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This states are either in a recession or high risk to one, per Moody;s”

Wyoming Montana Minnesota Mississippi Kansas Massachusetts Washington Georgia New Hampshire Maryland Rhode Island Illinois Delaware Virginia Oregon Connecticut South Dakota New Jersey Maine lowa West Virginia District of Columbia This states are either in a recession or high risk to one, per Moody;s" WyomingMontanaMinnesotaMississippiKansasMassachusettsWashingtonGeorgiaNew HampshireMarylandRhode IslandIllinoisDelawareVirginiaOregonConnecticutSouth DakotaNew JerseyMainelowaWest… — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 3, 2025 Here, …

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Recession incoming

Wonder why? pic.twitter.com/AfcAokB0Ll — Stephen Richardson (@richirich1968) September 22, 2025 Trucking has been in my family since the 1960’s. We’ve lived through multiple cycles: Trucking deregulation, oil crisis, stagflation, the S&L collapse, Gulf War, Sept 11, and the financial crisis. I’ve spoken to dozens of trucking veterans with 40+ years of experience -… https://t.co/xYXcVYbqwx — …

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Credit Scores Fall at the Fastest Rate Since the Great Recession

Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The saga of the bifurcated economy continues. Gen Z getting hammered. Credit Scores Plunge Trump says the economy is booming. But FICO notes credit scores are down for the second year. . CNN comments Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession The national average FICO score dropped …

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Don’t be a late bull! UBS puts the recession probability at 93%; This “market” is at extreme risk of spontaneous explosion. RAY DALIO: HOLD 10–15% OF PORTFOLIO IN GOLD

Don’t be a late bull.The building may look strong, but its foundation weakens day by day.Dollar Index at all-time lows.Gold at all-time highs.Market at all-time highs — yet small caps haven’t reclaimed theirs.Inflation ticking up but Fed expected to cut rates. All of this… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) September 11, 2025 This "market" is at extreme …

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Everybody is broke — 33% of US states are already in a RECESSION — Bloomberg now admits we may have been in recession since March of last year

Millions of families barely holding on while the system pretends everything is fine. Everybody is broke pic.twitter.com/lcsv6CXQvF — 🏴‍☠️ (@calvinfroedge) September 10, 2025 ⚠️THERE WE GO: The US economy has now more unemployed people than job openings for the first time since April 2021. Job openings fell -176,000 in July, to 7.12 million, the 2nd-lowest …

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Is the U.S. Rolling Over Into Recession Right Here and Now?

via Phoenix Capital Research The August jobs numbers were a disaster. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in the month of August. To put this into perspective, Wall Street expected job growth of 75,000 for the month. So, this was a massive miss. And it confirms …

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If you adjust for all the fake jobs created out of thin air and actual inflation, we’ve likely been in a recession since 2022.

I honestly can’t believe how clueless the market is. We’re on the edge of a full-blown depression and it’s still acting like it’s 1999. Inflation is gone, the next 12 months will be nothing but deflation. We've been in a recession since 2024, they've just been hiding it. Credit card delinquencies are already as high …

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WARNING: Liquidity cannot stop the business cycle from turning; Recession signals flash and the biggest market bubble in history threatens to burst; 25bps cuts don’t matter.

Liquidity can’t stop a business cycle that’s already turning. Weak growth is the warning shot before the crash. When the cycle breaks, stocks don’t get “saved.” They get crushed. "Liquidity cannot stand the turn of the Business Cycle" (no matter what liquiditist try to tell us). Recession is coming! And it will crush stocks. #BTC …

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US recession risk hits 93 percent, Fed repo down 99 percent, AI bubble could pop any day

The AI frenzy is setting the stage for a systemic financial implosion. Investors pouring billions into a technology that cannot deliver will leave banks, pension funds, and retirement accounts exposed. When the illusion of growth shatters, markets could crash, credit could tighten, and unemployment could spike as companies realize their AI investments are worthless. For …

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We’re about to learn that we’ve been in a recession for over a year and it’s all been a liquidity fueled AI bubble…

Unlike the 2008 crash, where lies were exposed, today’s central bankers pump liquidity to fake prosperity, propping up stocks while economy craters. Politicians nod along, ignoring the rot as markets dance on borrowed time. The system’s not clueless, it’s complicit. Just hit a new cycle high of 39% probability pic.twitter.com/NpGRRoQ4FG — Acquiring Knowledge, Enjoying Life …

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Capital is leaving Canada faster than ever; The country is now officially in recession

🚨 BIGGEST OUTFLOW IN HISTORY 🚨 Capital is leaving Canada faster than ever—like it just got a hard elbow to the head. 🏃💨💸” pic.twitter.com/eoS6LmpRzR — Market Mania 🏴‍☠️ (@MarketManiaCa) August 28, 2025 Canada printes two consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth pic.twitter.com/cxRUGbVJ3r — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 29, 2025 Foreign investors …

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Half of U.S. workers at breaking point. Eating out collapse under inflation. Recession risks climb to 50 percent

Factories are shutting. Shops are closing. Workers are walking out under stress that has nowhere to go. The air smells of fear and exhaustion. Bank accounts are shrinking while bills climb. The institutions meant to protect us are either blind or complicit. Every metric screams warning. Every statistic is a cry ignored. The economy is …

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Whip It! Recession Warning May Prompt The Fed Into Action (Debt Stress Is Mounting, Recession Warning!)

by confoundedinterest17 The Fed will have to whip it good with rate cuts if the recession warnings are an indicator of what lies ahead for the US economy. The ratio of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) vs. The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI) ratio hasn’t been this low since 2008. Fed Funds Futures are …

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Recession specials are back!

https://imgur.com/VNqBXDR Fears of a slowing economy and worries about tariffs have spurred young Americans to point out so-called recession indicators. Some businesses are also picking up on the trend, with dining establishments and bars offering “recession specials.” Consumer sentiment has been on the decline, according to data from the University of Michigan. As fears of …

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Tariffs are squeezing margins. Recession and job loss squeezing consumers

That earnings report was garbage. Now it’s being exposed. https://t.co/xnDHuxUjwZ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 21, 2025 They need to hike very soon before this runs away from them. PPI and inflation expectations both lead CPI. Prices paid are still rising. Tariffs coming in gradually and will unanchor expectations further. Just remember that I was …

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Predicted no recession but the labor market is starting to crack; 401(k) hardship withdrawals tick up in second quarter

The system is stacked against the average person, and nobody seems to care until it hits them in the wallet. Back in 2022, I predicted that the US would not only avoid a recession, but would experience an “immaculate” disinflation. Today, the insulation that once protected the labor market is gone. While a recession is …

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Canada’s job market collapses as 40,800 positions vanish in July, youth unemployment soars to 14.6%—signs of recession everywhere

Canada’s labor market did more than stumble in July, it collapsed spectacularly. Missing job growth forecasts by over 54,000 is not just a minor slip. It signals serious cracks in the economy’s foundation. When youth unemployment reaches levels unseen since 2010, that sends a sharp warning about the future workforce and consumer spending. The sectors …

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Continuing Jobless Claims have just been a straight line up since Liberation Day. Recession already awake. The Fed sees it. Wall Street’s pretending not to.

Jobless claims just hit 1.974 million. That’s the highest since November 2021. Not a bump. Not seasonal noise. It’s been climbing for weeks. Up another 38,000 this time. That’s not recovery. That’s erosion. “Continuing Jobless Claims went up by 38K to 1.974M for the week ending July 26.” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rose-to-226k-last-week-202508071234 “Continuing claims soared by 38,000 to …

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