US recession risk hits 93 percent, Fed repo down 99 percent, AI bubble could pop any day

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The AI frenzy is setting the stage for a systemic financial implosion. Investors pouring billions into a technology that cannot deliver will leave banks, pension funds, and retirement accounts exposed. When the illusion of growth shatters, markets could crash, credit could tighten, and unemployment could spike as companies realize their AI investments are worthless.


The bank found that from May through July, the “hard data” from the U.S. economy has shown an elevated risk level, standing at a probability of 93% most recently. This sits at “historically worrying levels,” UBS says, given this signal’s track record of identifying turning points using data from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The bank notes other classic warning signs of an impending recession from the data, such as the inverted yield curve, which it notes is 23% inverted, steady in recent months but up sharply since the start of 2025. Based on building stress in credit markets, it finds the credit metrics-based recession probability has risen to 41%, roughly doubling since January.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-gives-america-recession-checkup-162216945.html

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