Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction.
Job losses are mounting in states tied to manufacturing, farming, and transport, while high-cost states like Georgia are now seeing population pullbacks.
Even California and New…
— Simon Ree (@simon_ree) October 6, 2025
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states in the second quarter of 2025. The percent change at an annual rate in real GDP was 3.8 percent nationally, with state-level changes ranging from a 7.3 percent increase in North Dakota to a 1.1 percent decline in Arkansas.” https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state
Zandi blames policy uncertainty: tariffs, job cuts, and stalled labor growth.
Others say the slowdown’s overhyped.
Either way, 22 recessions inside one economy isn’t a "no landing"…it’s a warning.
— Simon Ree (@simon_ree) October 6, 2025
Only this time – the Leading Indicators have rolled over!
They had not done that in 1998.
Therefore… we are not in 1998 https://t.co/RRf7RTdfo2
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) October 6, 2025
BREAKING: Commercial Real Estate crisis is worsening.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate hit 11.7%, an all-time high.
That’s now higher than the 2008 Great Recession peak of 10.7%, and it’s only getting worse.
A commercial real estate downturn is here and it’s unfolding faster than… pic.twitter.com/PxoRhk3G2l
— Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) October 5, 2025