UPS is closing 73 buildings and cutting 20,000 jobs. Amazon volume is down 50 percent. That’s not automation. That’s collapse. UPS says it’s “reconfiguring the network” but the closures are concentrated in retail-heavy states where consumer demand is evaporating. Q2 revenue fell nearly 3 percent. Peak season plans? Not submitted. That means retailers don’t know what’s coming.
Amazon is the largest online retailer in the US. If it’s slowing down, the economy is already in trouble. UPS says it will reduce Amazon deliveries by more than half by mid 2026. That’s a 10 billion dollar hole. UPS stock dropped 13 percent. The company lowered its 2025 forecast to 89 billion dollars. Wall Street calls it strategic. But the real story is demand collapse.
Meanwhile, credit card debt just hit 1.182 trillion dollars. That’s up 363 billion since April 2021. Seven billion per month. And that doesn’t include Buy Now Pay Later spending, which is projected to hit 116.7 billion this year. The Fed says one in four BNPL users missed payments. Klarna reports rising credit losses. BNPL isn’t convenience anymore. It’s survival.
Job openings fell to 7.4 million in June. Hiring dropped. Quits dropped. Layoffs flat. Challenger says H1 job cuts are the highest since 2020. Retail leads the purge. The private sector added just 74,000 jobs in June. ADP says it was negative. Small businesses shed 47,000 jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2 percent. But the labor force shrank by 130,000. That’s not recovery. That’s retreat.
And yet stocks are at all-time highs. Nvidia is worth 375 billion on 3.1 billion revenue. The S&P 500 is bloated with AI bets and stimulus fumes. But the real economy? Already in recession. They just changed the way they calculate it.
One is tracking the real US economy, the other one is tracking the La La Land one https://t.co/rcd7AIXAOJ
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 29, 2025
US consumers are piling into credit card debt like never before:
Total US credit card debt hit $1.1 trillion in the week ending July 16th, matching a record high set in May.
Year-to-date, credit card debt has risen by +$17 billion.
Since April 2021, it has surged by a whopping… pic.twitter.com/EMjzqLma02
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 29, 2025
Rate of job openings collapsing… more than we've seen in any of the past three recessions. WE. ARE. ALREADY. IN. A. RECESSION. AND. STOCKS. ARE. AT. ALL. TIME. HIGHS. pic.twitter.com/BmsQM7hgnF
— Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) July 29, 2025
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/04/29/ups-job-cuts-building-closures-2025/83343016007/
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/ups-layoffs-boston-wisconsin-ohio-pennsylvania/747591/