Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The market is still climbing. But underneath the surface, multiple warning signs are flashing at the same time. Here are the numbers investors are watching. 1. Margin debt hits $1.42 trillion Investors have borrowed a record $1.42 trillion to buy stocks. The bigger warning is the speed. Margin debt surged 53.7% year over year, reaching …
The problem with an increasing debt burden is that it costs more to maintain it: This is precisely the issue with which the U.S. Treasury is wrangling at present. As total U.S. national debt ticks over $39 trillion, the interest payments on that value are eye-watering: $529 billion for the first six months of the …
Angel investor Simon Dixon explains how the U.S. economy Ponzi scheme is approaching imminent collapse: “[This] is an absolute disaster.” “The only solution [now] is to print more money than Covid… more money than the global financial crisis.” “[The U.S. needs] to roll over $7 trillion of debt at either 4.5% or 5%.” This clip …
It’s not just the war that is pushing interest rates up. The debt is unsustainable and we soon won’t be able to service it. It’s irresponsible. https://t.co/WRKQ08YVob — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 25, 2026 Total U.S. obligations exceed $136,200,000,000,000. FIVE times U.S. annual GDP. "America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming …
via WSB: Yes, I shorted the market, because we are at war. Trump comes out LYING, and saves it. Iran denied his claims, and I thought, naturally, the market would reverse back down. I will never win in this game. Technicals, fundamentals, they mean nothing, because our leaders can simply lie and change the narrative. …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!! Insiders are buying COMEX Gold options at $15,000 – $20,000 for December 2026. Gold is around $4,700 right now. This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO TRIPLE. And if you think that’s just gambling YOU’RE COMPLETELY WRONG. Let me explain this in simple words. This position did NOT …
By Brandon Smith It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed; when a nation’s public debt finally exceeds its GDP. Historically speaking, it’s not a sign of doom like many economists suggest. Numerous countries have sustained for decades with a ratio of well over 100% and many other factors have to …
Fitch has downgraded Paramount’s debt to junk status and put the media giant on a negative credit watch over uncertainty related to its $110 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, warning that its leverage and free cash flow “may remain outside negative rating sensitivities” for longer than anticipated. The firm said the downgrade reflects “competitive …
Nearly half of Americans in a new WalletHub survey said their household can’t manage more debt, while more than one-third said they expect to have higher balances by the end of 2026. Fifty-three percent of households said the struggle the most with credit card debt, followed by mortgages at 20% and student loans with 11%. …
Recent reports (e.g., their Feb 11 piece on $1.28T credit card debt) note record balances and rising delinquencies. NY Fed data (Q4 2025) show overall household delinquency at 4.8%, the highest since 2017, up from pandemic lows. Credit card 90+ day serious delinquency stands at 12.7%, the highest since 2011. Auto loans are near 2010 …
https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/2026103508877893783 CBO projects deficits and debt to worsen sharply over the next decade The CBO said that the deficit for fiscal 2026 – President Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year in office – will be about 5.8 percent of GDP, about where it was in fiscal 2025, when the deficit was $1.775 trillion. But the …
Bull Theory @BullTheoryio 🚨THE $2 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET COULD BE FACING ITS FIRST MAJOR BANKRUPTCY. Blue Owl manages about $273 billion in assets. It is one of the biggest lenders behind the AI data center buildout. When companies like Meta, CoreWeave, or Crusoe need billions to build large data center campuses, they often go …
🚨BofA’s Indicator is screaming 'SELL' stocks: The BofA Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 points and is now at one of the highest readings on record. Historically, with the indicator this high, the median “max drawdown” over the following 3 months was -4.3% for the MSCI All-Country… pic.twitter.com/MYtcbBEJoo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) February 22, …
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail …
👇📌TLDR: For those short on time: * Life insurers hold more junk debt than 2007 subprime bonds * Private credit defaults hit 5.8% as fund values drop * Treasury basis trade leverage reached $1.4 trillion * Hedge fund leverage sits at the highest level ever recorded *… — Sagzee (@IAmSagzee) February 13, 2026 WARNING: SOMETHING …
Germany doesn’t want to underwrite France’s chronic overspending. 🚨🚨🚨German Chancellor Merz has rejected French President Macron’s request for the European Union to issue bonds to pay for stuff France cannot afford. Germany doesn’t want to pay for free stuff for the French govt which is deeply in debt. Debt to GDP: Germany 65%France… pic.twitter.com/vcwO2elgnx — …
SoftBank just missed Wall Street Net Income estimates by 70% https://t.co/615qtOBOAZ pic.twitter.com/KlUrlbZfiM — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) February 12, 2026 Meta is paying $6.5 billion extra in interest to keep $27 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet. They’re using something called conduit financing, where a special purpose vehicle borrows the money, builds the …
Q4 2025 student loans transitioning to 90+ days delinquent surged to +14%, a level never seen before in history. pic.twitter.com/OIBZin9gx1 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 10, 2026 CREDIT CARD STRESS IS SURGING: 12.7% OF CREDIT CARD LOANS ARE NOW 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT, THE SECOND-HIGHEST LEVEL EVER, SURPASSED ONLY DURING THE AFTERMATH OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS …
President Trump has reshaped the country’s economic policies, but the outlook for the budget remains dire. In the first year of his second term, President Trump has tried to radically reshape America’s economy. He has slashed taxes, raised tariffs to their highest levels in almost a century, unilaterally canceled federal spending, pushed down immigration and …
via Phoenix Capital Research The King of Cheap Debt is living up to his name. Prior to winning the 2024 Presidential Election, former-President Donald Trump routinely attacked the Biden administration for increasing the debt. Among other things, President Trump has accused the Biden administration of racking up “8 trillion in wasteful deficit spending,” spending like …
Google is selling 100 year debt byu/donopumpi inwallstreetbets BREAKING: Google $GOOG to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a $20 billion multi-currency debt sale, aimed at funding AI infrastructure. This marks the first such long-term tech issuance since the 2000 dot-com era. What stage? — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 9, 2026 Big Tech is …
Seriously, it’s ugly, and we’re the ones paying. This is not good… It’s very very bad pic.twitter.com/coBViTkxQL — Dr Danish (@operationdanish) February 9, 2026 Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has said that President Trump’s policies could spark “capital wars,” with countries and investors pulling back from U.S. assets, per BI — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 9, 2026 …
5 largest U.S. cities don’t have enough money to pay bills. At the end of fiscal 2024, all five cities didn’t have enough money to pay their bills despite having balanced budget requirements. In order “to claim their budgets were balanced, as is required by law in the five cities, elected officials” didn’t include “the …
Crypto led higher last April & no one wants to talk about how it may be leading lower this time..? — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 6, 2026 30% less volume today than the down days. Wyckoff distribution pattern still in play on $SPY until proved otherwise. pic.twitter.com/3Et0i4HUyB — John (@market_sleuth) February 6, 2026 Bear porn …
UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults – Leveraged loans: 8% – High-yield bonds: 4% PC most exposed because that’s where 2021-2022 vintage software deals got funded when banks couldn’t syndicate. The concentration is now becoming the vulnerability. UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults– Leveraged loans: 8%– High-yield …
I've been watching the 30 treasury bond market. Its grim When the rate hits 5% the claxton bell goes off pic.twitter.com/3Iq7uQcBX5 — Leeds Fella : Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇬🇧🇨🇦🇲🇽🇪🇺 (@FellaLeeds) January 28, 2026 👉 “Most of the borrowed money went to:• Tax cuts without spending cuts• Two long wars• Expensive private healthcare• Bailouts and stimulus• …
