Recent reports (e.g., their Feb 11 piece on $1.28T credit card debt) note record balances and rising delinquencies.
NY Fed data (Q4 2025) show overall household delinquency at 4.8%, the highest since 2017, up from pandemic lows. Credit card 90+ day serious delinquency stands at 12.7%, the highest since 2011. Auto loans are near 2010 peaks for some borrowers. Thirty-day delinquency rates remain around 3%, still below the historical average (~3.7%) and far from GFC peaks.
Strain is concentrated among lower-income borrowers. Mortgage delinquencies are rising fastest in low-income areas (overall rate 1.38%), while subprime credit cards and auto loans show sharper increases—serious card delinquency is ~12–13% in vulnerable groups. Higher earners remain relatively stable.
Overall, aggregate delinquency is elevated but does not indicate a systemic crisis.
Credit card debt hits record $1.28 trillion. Here’s why — and how to get ahead of it.
Debt balances continue to rise, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest quarterly report on household debt and credit shows that total household debt increased by $191 billion, or 1%, in the fourth quarter of 2025, to a new high of $18.8 trillion.
Notably, credit card balances rose by $44 billion in the fourth quarter to a record high of $1.28 trillion; mortgage balances grew by $98 billion, totaling $13.17 trillion; and auto loan balances increased by $12 billion, totaling $1.67 trillion at the end of 2025.
Delinquency rates also saw a steep increase in the fourth quarter, with 4.8% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency, driven by defaults among younger and lower-income borrowers and further evidence of a bifurcated, or “K-shaped,” economy.
Transitions into serious delinquency increased for credit card balances, mortgages, and student loans, while auto loans and home equity lines of credit decreased slightly. Student loan delinquencies continued to rise, with roughly 1 million borrowers in default and millions more delinquent on payments.