Recession looms—GDPNow sees -1.8% drop, S&P 500 risks 30% decline.

by

TLDR:

  • GDPNow estimates a -1.8% annualized GDP decline for Q1 2025, signaling contraction.

  • Two straight quarters of GDP decline typically indicate a recession.

  • Policy uncertainty, including tariffs and mass-firings, threatens further economic damage.

  • Federal worker layoffs could devastate local economies, real estate, and key industries.

  • Immigration policies may harm agriculture and tourism, worsening economic strain.

  • Stock market believers assume risks are priced in, but a major drop is likely.

  • S&P 500 could fall over 30%, with a potential rebound at SPY $420.

  • No position is entirely safe amid debt ceiling and policy instability.

Source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ji8bie/spy_to_420/