Recession looms—GDPNow sees -1.8% drop, S&P 500 risks 30% decline.
TLDR: GDPNow estimates a -1.8% annualized GDP decline for Q1 2025, signaling contraction. Two straight quarters of GDP decline typically indicate a recession. Policy uncertainty, including tariffs and mass-firings, threatens further economic damage. Federal worker layoffs could devastate local economies, real estate, and key industries. Immigration policies may harm agriculture and tourism, worsening economic strain. …