Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Private credit market hits $2 trillion with banks insurers and pensions dangerously tangled in. FSB warns the sector has never faced a real downturn and data is too patchy to track dangers. Bailey just admitted the shadow banking bomb is wired up and ticking. FSB warns in a new report that traditional banks, insurers and …
via notayesmanseconomics Over the past week or two we have seen a rather curious development if you consider that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. It has been highlighted today by the news from Nihon or Japan. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index has passed the 63,000 mark for the first time. Investors returned on …
95-year-old Buffett parks $380 billion in cash while flat-out warning the dollar could collapse. Market is now a church with a casino bolted on and the casino has never been more packed. Avis rental car gets GameStop-style meme-squeezed while Buffett calls one-day options pure gambling. Oracle admits he no longer understands most businesses and sees …
Europe already canceling flights and gutting schedules as jet fuel turns very very tight. US next in line because record American exports leave domestic refiners fighting the same barrels. The CEO of Chevron just said it out loud. "We're starting to see risks of supply outages in some of these economies." Europe is already there. …
By Peter Reagan If there is one thing that the CEO of the fifth largest bank in the world should know something about, it’s what is going on in the economy. Not the numbers in government reports that don’t connect to the reality that everyday Americans live in. Abstractions like GDP and consumer sentiment. What we’re interested in is …
Recent labor market data suggests that the U.S. may already be entering the recession that some economists have for months been anticipating, according to the global financial services firm and credit ratings agency Moody’s. The company devised a new model to determine whether and when the country is in the midst of a downturn. Incorporating …
By Brandon Smith Perhaps the most common economic commentary circulating today is the fear that the average American family has been priced out of the housing market for the rest of their lives. Gen Z and even Gen Alpha teens are already planning for a future in which buying a home is impossible. This is …
by Martin Armstrong The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter. This sudden deceleration …
Markets are teetering on the edge and the tension is growing by the hour. Michael Hartnett warns that if the S&P 500 falls to roughly 6,600, policymakers may feel forced to act. At the same time, Jerome Powell is expected to signal that stagflation risks are rising, meaning slower growth coinciding with higher inflation. This …
🚨 GAS JUST HIT NEARLY $8 A GALLON — AND PEOPLE ARE ASKING HOW THIS IS EVEN REAL A driver in Los Angeles filmed a station showing $7.81 for regular and almost $8 for premium. People watching are asking the same thing: How is this normalized? Some are calling it a complete… pic.twitter.com/YfM8bSKIh3 — HustleBitch …
BREAKING: Americans told to immediately depart 15 countries in the Middle East due to "serious safety risks" pic.twitter.com/h54mwW3mo5 — Faytuks News (@Faytuks) March 2, 2026
Lawsuits do not mean guilt, but they do mean someone thinks the books were dressed up while risk was buried. If AI demand slows or financing tightens, this kind of leverage does not unwind politely. They will tell you, "We never saw it coming." pic.twitter.com/eoUhPP387V — The Great Martis (@great_martis) February 4, 2026 “When you …
🇺🇸 SUPREME COURT RULING TOMORROW COULD TRIGGER $133B SHOCK… Bitcoin dropped 10% to its local bottom in the wake of Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements. Tomorrow's Supreme Court decision has high odds of declaring them illegal, forcing a massive $133B+ refund in… pic.twitter.com/FswsmcS2P2 — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) January 8, 2026 Polymarket bettors are signaling strong …
Florida state officials move to ban paper straws at restaurants, citing ‘concerning health risks’ https://t.co/l2L9WZee4E pic.twitter.com/X1jN7jejLv — New York Post (@nypost) January 1, 2026 A bill introduced in Florida takes aim at paper drinking straws and stirrers at food businesses and restaurants. Senate Bill 958 was introduced Dec. 18 — with an identical House bill, …
If scrolling is addictive, why is the government policing every swipe? New York To Demand Warning Labels On Social Media Platforms New York is requiring warning labels on social media platforms about addictive features in a bid to address a youth mental health crisis. Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the bill into law on Dec. 26, …
How long before $250 trillion of hidden risk explodes in the financial system? World ‘blind’ to risks in booming $250tn shadow bank market The world’s top financial regulators have admitted they are blind to dangers lurking in the shadow banking sector. On Tuesday, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a network of global watchdogs, said “severe …
US trade deficit just hit $52.8B – lowest since June 2020 Down 35% from last year Experts said tariffs would destroy economy Trump, Bessent and Lutnick were right all along Lower imports mean weaker demand which means recession is coming https://t.co/qWoTBTmzG2 pic.twitter.com/mWIxuaGW4r — Leshka.eth ⛩ (@leshka_eth) December 14, 2025 NEC Director Kevin Hassett: "It's looking …
Let’s take a walk down memory lane and see where all those bold 2025 Bitcoin targets ended up. • JPMorgan: 170,000 • VanEck: 180,000 • SChartered: 250,000 • Tom Lee: 250,000 • Robert Kiyosaki: 350,000 • BlackRock: 700,000 • Chamath: 500,000 • Michael Saylor: 1,000,000 • ARK Invest: 650,000 • Galaxy Digital: 400,000 • Pompliano: …
Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM, has argued that the recent surge in spending by Big Tech on AI-data centers is economically unrealistic. On the “Decoder” podcast he estimated that building and fully outfitting a one-gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion. Given that industry announcements suggest firms are planning up to 100 gigawatts of …
Veronica Martinez woke up early one recent morning to make a fresh batch of cookies. She packed them in a box and headed to a community center in East Oakland, where a nonprofit called Trybe invites families to get the things they need — produce, milk, eggs and even diapers. Most of the families set …
JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD HITS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2008, AND THE YEN CARRY TRADE JUST CRUMBLED OVERNIGHT. Stocks and Bitcoin mass liquidations return. pic.twitter.com/Uf3vxIsoRy — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December 1, 2025 Japan’s bond market sent a clear signal this week. The country’s two-year government bond yield touched 1%. Its highest level since 2008. …
Aitana Lopez is an influencer who makes as much as $11,000 per month. She regularly globetrots between New York City and her home in Catalonia, Spain, promotes beauty brands, Black Friday, her favorite songs and posts plenty of thirst traps. Just don’t expect to encounter her in the airport’s first-class lounge. That’s because despite her …
Regional banks now hold almost one-third of all U.S. commercial mortgages and a majority of non-owner-occupied CRE, and “latent distress” is about 4X larger than what current delinquency rates imply.🧵 CRE: ~ $4.8 T Consumer debt: $5.58T (auto: $1.66T, Student loan: $1.65 T) 1. Chief Risk Officer of a regional bank admitted on the call …
Afshine Emrani MD FACC @afshineemrani My predictions for what will happen: 1) Youthquake: the rebellion that powers the Left Mamdani’s win lights a fire under voters under 35. Social feeds overflow with clips about rent, wages, and “the people vs. the billionaires.” It works—at least for a while. Think Corbyn in the UK: a fast …
Something about this feels familiar. Not in the details, but in the tone. The warnings are starting to sound like they did before 2008. Quiet. Technical. Polite. But the words are the same. “Insurers shopping for better ratings on their private credit assets are creating a “looming systemic risk” to global finance, the chair of …
America's transition to a low-trust society means that every single aspect of the social contract is monetized by fraudsters “Fake students” enroll in community colleges, and collect federal and state student aid Officials don't even know the full extent of the scale of fraud pic.twitter.com/s1MdLXiFme — skepticalifornia (@skepticaliblog) October 15, 2025 An Ivy League student …
The entire economy runs on credit, and when it seizes up, this whole economy goes caput. Banks warning about private credit quality while funding its growth: Wells Fargo: $60B lent to private creditBofA: $33BPNC: $30BJPM: $22BTotal: Nearly $300B Can’t raise alarms about cockroaches when you’re the one feeding them pic.twitter.com/avZSHXZkR4 — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) October 22, …
Stocks crashed on Friday, to say it in a dramatic way, but 2% down in an hour also indicates the key market risk, which is not the size of the stock market, but the exit door!
Everyone’s chasing the next Nvidia but Buffett’s old playbook might win again. Goldman: “Not a bubble, just a very expensive balloon tied to 5 companies and a prayer.”Translation—diversify before the pin shows up wearing a recession. — TradingPulse X (@TradingPulseX) October 8, 2025 Here is an interesting fact about the DotCom bubble collapse from 2000 …
BREAKING NEWS THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IS WARNING BANKS AND SUPERVISORS OF LIQUIDITY RISKS IN $9.6 TRILLION FX MARKET Nothing to see here… — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 7, 2025 LONDON (Reuters) -Financial institutions that dominate the $9.6 trillion currency market should hold the necessary liquidity and capital buffers and run enhanced stress tests …