Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“When we have the next crisis, the word ‘private’ is going to be in every headline,” says Cornell Professor Dave Collum. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Collum warns that the biggest risks in the next financial crisis won’t come from the public markets—stocks, Treasuries, and the like—but from the shadowy private markets: private credit, …
The new jobs numbers have been trending downwards for the last six months, or so. We are well into a recession at this point. Are we already in a jobs recession? Less than 50% of industries are adding workers the last 6 months. Numbers like this are only seen during recessions. pic.twitter.com/9J2H1FTyZr — QE Infinity …
Factories are shutting. Shops are closing. Workers are walking out under stress that has nowhere to go. The air smells of fear and exhaustion. Bank accounts are shrinking while bills climb. The institutions meant to protect us are either blind or complicit. Every metric screams warning. Every statistic is a cry ignored. The economy is …
Walking just 2,300 daily steps (around 20 minutes) begins lowering major heart risks by 17%. Brisk walking (80+ steps per minute) cuts heart failure risk by 30% and strokes by 24%. Even people with high blood pressure see a 22% reduced heart failure risk per 1,000 extra steps. Consistency matters more than hitting 10,000 steps; …
If you were sitting in Powell’s chair right now, the choices are all bad. Rate cuts with inflation heating back up would be reckless, but blindly hiking or extending QT into a slowing economy risks detonating credit markets. The Fed is boxed in because both sides of the balance sheet are broken: short-term liquidity is …
Life savings wagered on one-day market moonshot. That’s it. I’ve had it. My boss just sent me a passive-aggressive email at 6 AM. My landlord is raising my rent again. I’m tired of grinding away for a 3% raise every year while the whole world gets more expensive. The “slow and steady” path is a …
"Effective Immediately": Shipping Line Suspends EV Cargo Due To Lithium Battery Fire Concerns https://t.co/GyGrsL32Zu — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 21, 2025 U.S. shipping and navigation services company Matson surprised customers in recent days by announcing new policies that halt all electric vehicle shipments due to the fire risk posed by lithium-ion batteries. This comes after the Morning …
BREAKING: Johnson & Johnson Lead Scientist Confesses J&J COVID-19 Vaccine Was ‘Not Safe and Effective,’ Reveals “Lack of Research” From Rushing to Release Vaccine: “People Wanted It, We Gave It to Them” “Do you have any idea the lack of research that was done on those products [vaccines]?” “I mean we basically just had a …
⚠️US stock market concentration Bubble is huge: The top 10 largest S&P 500 stocks reflect ~38% of the index market capitalization, just shy of a RECORD high. This is over 10 percentage points higher than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. The market is dependent on few stocks. pic.twitter.com/7jfzEfhx6L — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June …
The United States is escalating its crackdown on Chinese influence, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing that some Chinese student visas will be revoked. The policy targets individuals with alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or those studying in fields deemed critical to national security. This move signals a deepening divide between …
*FED STAFF SAW RECESSION “ALMOST AS LIKELY’ AS MAIN FORECAST *FED MINUTES: TARIFFS MUCH LARGER, BROADER THAN EXPECTED pic.twitter.com/GoXICkMydr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 28, 2025 Federal Reserve officials are raising concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the weakening labor market. The latest FOMC minutes reveal growing worries that inflation could remain persistent, forcing difficult tradeoffs between …
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes this week, drawing close attention from investors. Recent auctions have produced mixed results, with some maturities struggling to attract strong demand. This round of debt sales will signal whether investor confidence is holding steady or showing signs of strain. The previous 7-year auction …
A Chinese student was just arrested for using a drone to fly over a US Navy shipyard & take photos/videos. “The FBI found photos and videos of sensitive US Naval vessels — This shipyard makes highly classified Navy aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines” pic.twitter.com/LD2dLMWK8y — Derrick Evans (@DerrickEvans4WV) May 25, 2025
James Wynn's $1.26 billion Bitcoin long position with 40x leverage bets on price increase, using $31.6M margin to control 11,588 BTC. At Bitcoin's current price of $109,029, it's profitable, but a drop to $105,179 risks liquidation, losing the entire margin. High leverage… — Grok (@grok) May 24, 2025 James Wynn’s $1.26 billion Bitcoin long position …
They promised a revolution. They said these technologies would change everything. But what we got was a parade of expensive, glitchy, and often unnecessary gadgets that fail to deliver on their grand promises. Let’s take a closer look at the reality behind the hype. Artificial Intelligence Training advanced AI models now costs upwards of $78 …
Coinbase is facing a crisis after a massive data breach exposed sensitive customer information, including home addresses and account balances. The fallout has sparked concerns about the safety of high-net-worth individuals, with TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington warning that the breach “will lead to people dying.” His statement underscores the severity of the situation, as criminals …
The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged. They are warning of higher risks due to tariff shock. Here we go… — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) May 7, 2025 FED DECISION HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 7, 2025 1.Interest rates held steady for the third consecutive meeting. 2.Inflation described as still “somewhat elevated.” 3.Economic outlook grows murkier, with …
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already …
The economy is facing a storm of contradictions, and it’s beginning to show its cracks. As tariffs weigh heavily, the fear of inflation is creeping back into the market, even as the dollar is in freefall. The result? A liquidity problem that’s raising short-term yields and strengthening the yen—something we haven’t seen in years, all …
Don’t think we’re anywhere near out of the woods yet. CITI’S ANDY SIEG: “DON’T BUY THE DIP” Despite Thursday’s relief rally after Trump paused some tariff hikes, Citi’s Global Wealth head Andy Sieg is urging caution even though “peak shock” might have passed. “Don’t chase this, don’t buy the dip,” he told Bloomberg. Sieg says… …
Powell may pretend he doesn't need to get involved, but the market is about to drag him in kicking and screaming pic.twitter.com/izA4VUQmQN — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2025 Junk bond yields going parabola https://t.co/LGDN6xHOiq pic.twitter.com/ILja6xLDGY — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 8, 2025 The crash that's now happening in the bond market has more dire …
🇺🇸 GOLD CLIMBS AS STAGFLATION FEARS RETURN US consumer confidence just hit a four-year low, and markets are starting to panic. With inflation expectations rising and real yields falling, investors are rushing into gold—pushing it above $3,018. Fed officials admit goods… https://t.co/B4ffcDfY7p pic.twitter.com/TJR1XlmXAj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 26, 2025
TLDR: GDPNow estimates a -1.8% annualized GDP decline for Q1 2025, signaling contraction. Two straight quarters of GDP decline typically indicate a recession. Policy uncertainty, including tariffs and mass-firings, threatens further economic damage. Federal worker layoffs could devastate local economies, real estate, and key industries. Immigration policies may harm agriculture and tourism, worsening economic strain. …
We've seen this movie before… UBS 2025- "…Ernst & Young, re-elected as UBS's auditor last year, said in its assessment on Monday that because of the effects of this weakness, it had concluded that UBS had "not maintained effective internal control over financial reporting"… pic.twitter.com/TM0R1VAtzX — kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) March 18, 2025 UBS’s auditor warns …
President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order last week for a six-month review of U.S. support to all international intergovernmental organisations to decide whether it should withdraw from them, or seek their reform. S&P said the current triple-A ratings of the World Bank and other top development banks assume the U.S. remaining in place. Therefore, …
Avery shared her struggle, warning others about the potential risks and the impact on her health. Singer Avery starts crying, says she has been diagnosed with a bone-thinning disease from Ozempic, begs her followers not to take the drug. She says she has osteoporosis & osteopenia after taking the drug to lose weight. “Please use …
🔴 FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION ELEVATED, AND I SEE UPSIDE RISKS, PROGRESS HAS STALLED. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 9, 2025 30-yr is 5% pic.twitter.com/wzz39uRgFR — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 10, 2025 Equities are going to need to learn to live with higher rates. They are here to stay. I really did enjoy all the posts …
Most of the US stock market are tech, that has a very high valuation plot from multpl. com pic.twitter.com/YQgSP5LoRy — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) December 15, 2024 European Stocks trading at an all-time record discount relative to U.S. Stocks 🚨 https://t.co/MBwckCKVD2 pic.twitter.com/c1nwYFwjLJ — Barchart (@Barchart) December 16, 2024 ZIRP allowed the government to run up …
Fed injected 100million into the banking system this morning. Its probably nothin. pic.twitter.com/HzOJdkbUZW — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2024 They injected 2.3billion back few weeks ago. Ongoing liquidity crisis that will get extremely worse. — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2024 The blood indicator is VERY close to cross its 100-week MA. …
More work is needed to tackle risks outside the banking sector, according to a Bank of England study which found that a market crisis would be amplified by fire sales of assets by pension funds, hedge funds and other investors. The BoE said a sharp rise in sovereign and corporate bond yields caused by “a …