The new jobs numbers have been trending downwards for the last six months, or so. We are well into a recession at this point.
Are we already in a jobs recession?
Less than 50% of industries are adding workers the last 6 months.
Numbers like this are only seen during recessions. pic.twitter.com/9J2H1FTyZr
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 8, 2025
“The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC – they completely blew the jobs picture, stayed pat and then had to scramble.
Here we are again.
The BLS’ data collection is too sterile and slow for a dynamic economy like the US. We need to have a real time reporting framework that allows multiple free market participants to ingest and interpret critical data so that we have an accurate sense of jobs and other economic indicators.
The Fed, acting on this sterile BLS data, is destined to be wrong again in 2025. They are too late to cut.
If we don’t fix this system, we will entice avoidable economic disruptions in the future, and the magnitude of them will grow, as the errors in the data grow.
Scott and his team can only do so much if he has to constantly fight bad data from BLS and a slow team at the Fed.”
Even the first revision cannot be assumed to be accurate.
For June, the combined downward revisions were 13,000 larger than the initially reported figure.
That’s no longer a “revision,” it’s an error.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 7, 2025
I know I am beating a dead horse here. There are many valid bull arguments out there, but not “UR is still only 4.3%!”
Here is how lagging UR is.
During the GFC, market topped in Oct 07, but UR did not break above 5% until Mar 08, by which SPX was -15%.
Mkt bottomed out in Mar…
— Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) September 8, 2025
Trucking volumes down to 2019 levels. pic.twitter.com/F7Y1KGqRJj
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) September 7, 2025