Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Hundreds of millions of Americans risk experiencing power shortages this winter if weather conditions are harsh, according to a new report published by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a power grid watchdog. Nearly all residents of the Northeast, Texas and Midwest could face energy shortfalls in the event of a colder-than-usual winter, the …
📈 $NVDA accounts receivable 📈 from $9B to nearly $15B to show “growth”. AR means they’ve claim sales but haven’t yet collected the 💵. If Nvidia keeps 📈 receivables to hit this QTR “beat”, it could face accounting issues in its next 10K filing, like $SMCI today. https://t.co/G1AG98QQ2J — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) November 14, …
NY SENATE EX-CANDIDATE: I FEAR FOR TRUMP’S SAFETY Independent senate ex-candidate Diane Sare: “I believe this transition period is actually fraught with danger. The people who want to escalate the war drive now have a window in which to create a situation where a Trump presidency perhaps will feel trapped once he actually takes office. …
https://twitter.com/newstart_2024/status/1853415582541996536 TL;DR Naval Ravikant expresses concern about unified governments and advocates for divided government He warns that unified governments threaten democracy through potential tyranny of the majority Changing electoral rules (e.g., mail-in ballots, voter ID laws, statehood for DC and Puerto Rico) is a primary concern Censorship and altering democratic processes can lead to a …
#Gold closed at a record high above $2,775, on track for its best year since 1979. The difference is that in 1979, #inflation was near its peak and the gold bull market was near its end, whereas now inflation is near its trough and the gold bull market is just getting started. #Gold closed at …
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it …
This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. This is interest payments on the US national debt of $36 trillion. We now pay nearly $1.2 trillion per year in interest on the debt, about 23% of all taxes, tariffs and fees collected by the US govt goes to paying interest on the debt. pic.twitter.com/UoMe8MbZKL — …
The bond market does not believe the Fed. Bonds signal inflationary and economic weakness risk is rising. via Bloomberg Stagflation… — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) October 12, 2024 Gold beats the S&P 500 this year as investors discount more currency destruction Graph via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/kf7nV9VhvZ — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 11, 2024
The Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwound and Should Concern Everyone "…Knowing what’s left after the summer selloff is a challenge in part because no one is keeping track. There’s no trading floor or regulator. No one publishes a league table. It’s a strategy, not a product, so… https://t.co/EJio9HfFKX pic.twitter.com/dumVOLtQns — kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) October …
U.S. intelligence agencies have cautioned that Russia may respond with increased force, potentially including lethal attacks on the U.S. and its allies, if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for strikes deep into Russian territory, the New York Times reported. The news outlet cited a previously unreported …
Credit & stock markets pricing in 250bps rate cuts and 18% SPX EPS growth between now and end-2025…don’t get much better than that for risk so investors forced to chase. – BofA pic.twitter.com/OYr3EKJZbR — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 25, 2024 Nvidia and Apple account for over 20% of the average retail investor's portfolio. pic.twitter.com/MiGahSKhdY …
(Sept 24): Gold prices surged to a record high on Tuesday as a cocktail of factors, from hopes of further US rate cuts and China stimulus measures to elevated Middle East tensions, lifted demand. Spot gold steadied at US$2,628.63 per ounce as of 0903 GMT after hitting a record high of US$2,639.95 earlier in the …
Investors need to spend more time on FinTwit, they clearly don’t understand that BRICS currency is coming. pic.twitter.com/AJggpYMnyT — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) September 11, 2024 The scariest China 🇨🇳 chart pic.twitter.com/VPosl9EUzs — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 13, 2024 China continues to be a huge market for many companies, but market access barriers, tepid …
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1828291677036896483 Let's all take note, even when the wtiting is on the wall (like back in 2007) Real estate agents and mortgage brokers/bankers are still trying to con you into going all in on housing. I'm arguing simply to watch and wait, these housing goons just want your transactions. https://t.co/YAY99XPBOy — Sold At The Top …
If it succeeds, Polaris Dawn will be the first non-government mission to perform a spacewalk. But not only that, it’ll do that about 700 kilometres (435 miles) above Earth. To compare: the International Space Station (ISS) orbits Earth at about 400 kilometres, where the… pic.twitter.com/V9eUGo0Yh8 — Civil Learning (@CivilLearning1) August 26, 2024
Buffett seems to have a knack for these sorts of times. He may be noticing some overvaluation and unmitigated risks: https://t.co/LRIl4NJT7m — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) August 14, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1823836532706594998 Warren Buffett 13F pic.twitter.com/f7DlJReMh2 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2024 Consumer sentiment tumbles as ‘recession-like’ symptoms spread among Americans Consumer sentiment in the U.S. …
"The hits just keep on comin'" – Casey Kasem This one today – in case you're told the initial rebound after a volatility spike is a good thing. Not so much when the market is still near divergent, overbullish, record highs. Not an investment strategy, not a forecast. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/e0q21AkQxg — John P. Hussman, …
🚨SHOCKING EXPOSÉ🚨 Our litigation just exposed that Biden’s FDA recommended approving puberty blockers to minors despite noting that these drugs are associated with an “increased risk of depression and suicidality.” DETAILS: pic.twitter.com/IfNc8ZQaaX — America First Legal (@America1stLegal) August 1, 2024 Read here: https://t.co/xyxq7atjy4 — America First Legal (@America1stLegal) August 1, 2024
AAII bulls up to 52.7% – highest level of this year and 2nd highest level since early 2021. Optimism is elevated, but risks become more acute when the crowd heads for the exits pic.twitter.com/0foZRmidNi — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 19, 2024 356 companies have filed for bankruptcy this year, higher than in the pandemic …
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
According to a study published by AccountTECH, real estate brokerages face profitability challenges if agent commissions decrease. Here are the key findings: Commission Rates and Profitability: If the terms of the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) nationwide commission lawsuit settlement lead to typical agent commissions dropping to 2%, approximately 79% of brokerages would be unprofitable. Even a minor decrease in commission …
Non-bank financial institutions are increasingly posing risks to America’s big banks, according to a post on the New York Fed’s Liberty Street Economics blog. During times of heightened market-wide stress, non-banks seek term loans and lines of credit, putting pressure on banks to provide liquidity. This reliance on big banks could lead to “vectors of shock …
If you cannot afford to put equity down against any leverage you take on to buy an asset not only you are almost guaranteed to fall into negative equity, but also to become “slave” of your lender that will let you pay for any loss from foreclosing and dumping your home collateral https://t.co/8b9AUE6SyM — JustDario …
"The FDIC shows how CRE concentration risk lives in banks *under* $100 billion—but the big office losses have been have been absorbed by the banks over $100bn."@stevenkelly49 pic.twitter.com/guwin1ehhn — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) May 29, 2024 🚨CRASH ALERT 🚨 update : Compare May 13th VS today. Scary ? You decide. https://t.co/3oGfjOUW2Q pic.twitter.com/JIhWyqEgSx — The Great Martis …
The AI chip market faces a significant downturn with net sales plummeting by nearly 25% sequentially and over 40% compared to the previous year. Amidst inflationary pressures and concerns over misdirected investments, every chip company is being labeled as an AI play, raising doubts about the sustainability of the market. https://twitter.com/GregCrennan/status/1787580544479572371 Every chip company is …
Amidst concerns over global economic challenges, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasizes the imperative of maintaining price stability in monetary policy. His remarks shed light on pressing issues such as low growth, high debt levels, and the urgent need for structural reforms to bolster productivity and ensure long-term economic resilience. Key points: Swiss National …
With 30 major central banks poised to slash rates and over 70 nations heading into elections, the global economy braces for the most coordinated easing since the Great Financial Crisis. More Easy Money Will Plunge Us into Stagflation 30 major central banks are expected to cut rates in the 2H24, a year when more than …
The idea of seizing Russia’s assets in the US and EU as a response to the ongoing conflict has sparked heated debate, with critics warning of dire consequences. Proposals to confiscate frozen Russian assets and divert them to Ukraine are not only shortsighted but could also spell disaster for the United States and its allies. …
The debt-service coverage ratio, a measure of financial health, has dropped significantly over the past year, indicating increased risk among leveraged loan companies. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer warns that if corporate profits disappoint, the stock market rally could end. Options markets show extreme optimism, suggesting investors may be overlooking potential risks. Something about swimming …
This trend raises alarm about the broader risks from interlinked dependencies. LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) – Europe’s private credit funds are increasingly borrowing from banks to boost their performance, fuelling concerns about the wider risks posed by this interconnectedness. A record 80% of new European private credit funds borrowed from banks via ‘subscription lines’ in …