https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1828291677036896483
Let's all take note, even when the wtiting is on the wall (like back in 2007) Real estate agents and mortgage brokers/bankers are still trying to con you into going all in on housing. I'm arguing simply to watch and wait, these housing goons just want your transactions. https://t.co/YAY99XPBOy
— Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) August 26, 2024
1) This situation is not sustainable.
Either: home prices need to crash.
Or: inflation needs to skyrocket out of control.
Or perhaps some combination thereof.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 26, 2024
3) The actual, true "anecdote" for home price affordability (in addition to declining prices) would be rising incomes.
Rising incomes would help "fix" the current situation in a way that prevents an outright home price crash.
The problem: income growth is decelerating fast.… pic.twitter.com/5ppsqAlmke
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 26, 2024
5) Fast forward to today and we're at a record disconnect between wages and home prices. With wage growth decelerating fast.
Short of some inflationary outburst, that causes wages to start going up again, we won't see the fundamentals needed to sustain current home price…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 26, 2024
6) Another chart that highlights the extreme nature of this Housing Bubble is the Home Price / Income graph outlined below.
You can see home prices relative to incomes are at a 4.5x multiple right now.
Only two other times this happened: 2006 and early 1950s. pic.twitter.com/arAG5H2LMD
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 26, 2024
$AAPL has ceased being truly innovative, the "App Economy" is a distant memory, $AMZN has fully transformed into a "bait and switch" scam with continuously diminishing value for customers, $UBER was always a con, $CMG just sells burritos. #AI is easily 15 years overblown.…
— Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) August 27, 2024
With this level of concentration, semiconductor stocks, NVIDIA in particular, have been a topic of discussion when discussing overvaluation: https://t.co/SxFcWrBwb8
— Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) August 27, 2024
2/ Bitcoin’s trajectory typically mirrors that of the US stock market
When the S&P 500 rises, Bitcoin also climbs
Conversely, when the S&P 500 falls, Bitcoin follows suit pic.twitter.com/uEOoKyOcMA
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 27, 2024