Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Mexican Peso Is So Strong Investors Fear Betting Against It Investors are pushing the world’s most expensive currency to ever more dizzying heights, shrugging off the risks from interest-rate cuts, divisive elections and analyst warnings. Mexico’s peso is the world’s… pic.twitter.com/PlXWTs4St0 — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) March 15, 2024
Nearly $7 billion worth of aid could be jeopardized if the legislation is signed into law, the country’s finance ministry has warned Ghana could lose $3.8 billion of World Bank funding if new anti-LGBTQ legislation is signed into law, the West African nation’s Finance Ministry has cautioned. A $3 billion IMF loan package could also …
by TheBarnacle63 I just checked ratings for S&P components, and I am a bit shocked at what I see. Here are the ratings based on Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform, and Sell Strong Buy: 29 Buy: 349 Hold: 117 Underperform: 4 Sell: 0 No Rating: 1 I get nervous when no analyst is willing to …
The Chinese EV industry may have little choice but to square off in a potential fight to the death, according to the billionaire co-founder of Xpeng. No matter who wins, though, their Western peers stand to lose. As China’s carmakers pursued profitable growth in the West, the country took Japan’s crown as the largest automotive …
America First Legal’s recent lawsuit against the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has exposed a treasure trove of documents, laying bare the deep state’s awareness of the risks tied to mass mail voting in the 2020 elections. This lawsuit unraveled how CISA dismissed valid criticisms as “disinformation” and continued endorsing unprecedented voting policy changes …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is closely monitoring potential market liquidity risks as countries move to refinance debt issued during the pandemic, warns Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first Deputy Managing Director. Expressing concern over the already elevated debt levels, Gopinath points out the additional worry of projected fiscal deficits surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This highlights the …
Recent indicators suggest a potential shift as M2 money supply contracts sharply. While inflation has been the norm in recent years, notable declines in asset prices, such as a 25% drop in used car prices and a 50% decrease in egg prices in 2023, raise questions about deflation risks. Examining historical patterns, instances of deflation …
This WEF article provides an helpful overview of the report, and the key topics that will be addressed in Davos.https://t.co/ZeqAbmMbtV It is under the guise of these "risks" that they will be offering "solutions". pic.twitter.com/RnvW7WPquD — Noor Bin Ladin (@NoorBinLadin) January 11, 2024
via Daniel Lacalle: Market expectations of rapid disinflation and a soft landing remain, but January has given a few new risks to the optimistic estimates of disinflation with no impact on the economy. The first risk comes from the commodity complex and freight costs. Market participants have all but ignored the spread of geopolitical risk and assumed …
Is this like saying a a 'stopped clock' is accurate twice a day? So halting QT will fulfil their 'normalisation' narrative @RobinWigg #Fed has painted itself into a corner and will need to do something when RRP finally empties. pic.twitter.com/ZpwtUYVjgY — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) January 9, 2024
The financial landscape is fraught with warning signs as retail investors remain fully invested in stocks, and cautionary voices like market prophet Gary Shilling raise alarms about the precarious nature of the current market conditions. Recent data from the monthly AAII asset allocation report for December reveals that investors are heavily committed to stocks, with …
A chilling resemblance to the Dot Com bubble has emerged as the percentage of zombie firms within the Russell 3000 index reaches alarming levels. Zombie firms, akin to the undead, stagger along, unable to settle their debts, surviving only through the benevolence of creditors and the low-interest-rate environment. This resurgence to Dot Com era figures …
Listen to how easy it will be to implement here in America. Our bank are ALREADY on board and authorized via an executive order. pic.twitter.com/Xt8qHMaeNQ — NANCY✊ (@9NewsNancy) December 25, 2023
A controversial initiative by the Biden Administration proposes to permit the importation into the US of fresh beef from Paraguay. Many industry stakeholders protest that this will expose American agriculture to the risks of foot-and-mouth disease, with potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences. Climate warriors increasingly target cows as destructive, and now Biden risks the entire US …
by TonyLiberty “Job security” is an illusion created by corporations — A company’s only concern is how much money the company can make. Companies are not “families”, they’re businesses, and their goal is to make as much money as possible. If they can make more money by laying you off, they will. One of the …
via Oilprice: The world faces the highest geopolitical risks since the 1973 oil embargo, the chief executive of one of the largest oilfield service providers, Baker Hughes, told the Financial Times. “From a historical context I’ve heard people say, you go back to the oil embargo of 1973 — that being somewhat similar,” Baker Hughes CEO …
Bloomberg’s report on the Fed’s apprehensions regarding US commercial office space and interest rates raises alarming flags. Moody’s staggering estimate of potential unrealized losses, reaching a colossal $650 billion within US banks’ securities portfolios, points to an imminent and deeply concerning crisis looming over the banking sector. The Fed sees risks for banks from US …
$100,000,000,000 in Deposits Exit US Banking System in Three Weeks As Fed Survey Says Banks Face Financial Stability Risks People and businesses are withdrawing billions of dollars in deposits from US banks as a new survey details concern on the state of the financial sector. The latest numbers from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) …
The IMF warned of bond market risks amid fears of a Silicon Valley Bank repeat. Stricter lender scrutiny is necessary, the IMF’s Tobias Adrian told the Financial Times. Sharp rises in bond yields could pose a risk to banking portfolios, as happened earlier this year. The sharp rise in Treasury bond yields provoked warnings from …
https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1706144353545081040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw h/t Tonight We Ride!
“JUST IN: Nearly 700 US banks now exceed the 2006 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan concentration guidance. What is the CRE loan concentration guidance? It’s guidance by the FDIC for the amount of exposure that small banks should have to CRE loans. Currently, small banks hold over 70% of CRE loans which is $2 trillion …
The story of a Reddit user losing $619,035 in the stock market showcases the risky nature of high-risk financial trading and the devastating consequences it can bring. The user’s tragic story unfolded on the r/wallstreetbets subreddit, a community dedicated to high-stakes, high-reward investments that often are focused on options trading. In a post titled “My life’s over, …
The current situation in the US financial landscape is a cause for concern. It has been known that the top 5 US banks are over-leveraged, which can be a recipe for disaster. Over-leveraging can make these banks vulnerable to financial downturns and economic shocks. This vulnerability is further highlighted by the fact that companies are …
via bullsnbears: ABOUT $1.2 trillion of debt on US commercial real estate is “potentially troubled” because it’s highly leveraged and property values are falling, according to Newmark Group. Offices are the biggest near-term problem, accounting for more than half of the US$626 billion of at-risk debt that’s set to mature by the end of 2025, …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230726.htm Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations: The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Market participants interpreted data releases as generally demonstrating economic resilience and a further easing of inflation pressures. The market-implied peak for the federal funds rate rose in response …
by confoundedinterest17 Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the digital form of a government-issued currency that isn’t pegged to a physical commodity (in other words, CBDCs are digital FIAT currency). They are similar to cryptocurrencies, except that their value is fixed by the central bank and equivalent to the country’s fiat currency, which is the US Dollar. …
OOPS! #Eurozone M2 money growth turned NEGATIVE for the first time in Eurozone history, in a promising sign for #inflation. M2 growth revised to -0.1% in May from initially +0.3%, and falls deeper into negative territory in June to -0.5%. pic.twitter.com/DSvBFl0Jz4 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 26, 2023 As the Global Economy Falters, European …
Millennials are beating baby boomers and Gen X-ers when it comes to investing in gold, according to State Street. Demand for the precious metal, widely regarded as a safe haven asset, remains strong as recession risks loom. Gold has rallied almost 9% year-to-date, and is approaching the key $2,000 per ounce mark. Buying gold isn’t …
via YAHOO: The National Council for Social Security Fund, which oversees about $417 billion according to the latest available figures, has advised asset managers that handle its money to sell some bonds including those from riskier LGFVs and private developers after a review, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing …
