The financial landscape is fraught with warning signs as retail investors remain fully invested in stocks, and cautionary voices like market prophet Gary Shilling raise alarms about the precarious nature of the current market conditions.
Recent data from the monthly AAII asset allocation report for December reveals that investors are heavily committed to stocks, with cash on the sidelines dwindling to below-average levels. This heightened exposure comes as Shilling, a seasoned forecaster, issues stark warnings about the ‘everything rally,’ urging investors to divest from stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Shilling identifies Treasury volatility, commercial real estate buzz, and the hype surrounding retail investors as red flags signaling an impending crisis. His concerns extend to a potential 40% crash in the S&P 500 and an imminent recession, painting a gloomy picture for the financial markets.
A notable shift in the investment landscape is the surpassing of passive assets, such as low-cost ETFs, over active management in terms of total AUM. However, this shift raises fears of a bubble, particularly in large-cap stocks, as passive investing channels more dividends into the already dominant components of major indices.
The fear of a bubble echoes the transformation witnessed in the market since 2009 when only 20% of investing was passive. The rapid evolution of the market has brought about significant changes, leaving investors to grapple with the potential consequences of an overheated market and the challenges posed by the dominance of passive investment strategies. As cautionary signals continue to emerge, the question looms: Is the ‘everything rally’ leading us towards a financial precipice? Only time will unfold the answers as the market teeters on the edge of uncertainty.
Retail positioning.
"The monthly AAII asset allocation data for December shows that investors remain fully invested in stocks and cash on the sidelines is at below average levels (and falling)."
h/t @HiMountResearch @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/IzvBN5cTPb
— Blake B. Millard, CFA (@BlakeMillardCFA) January 3, 2024
Link:t.co/Uj8rpA7qPG
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 3, 2024
The fear here is a bubble in these large caps.
In 2009 only 20% of investing was passive.
It’s amazing how the market has changed so much in such a short time.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 4, 2024
Remember when Elon Musk sold Tesla stock back in November 2021? That was the top of the pandemic Tech bubble.
Now another billionaire Ponzi schemer is selling stock at the end of the AI Tech bubble. pic.twitter.com/NxLIqLC4P5
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 3, 2024
Worst start to a year in over two decades:t.co/RMMC8heKXI
“Crowding in mega cap Tech is a key risk…January rout in megacap tech is consensus”Investors are crowded into Tech and they expect it to explode. I suggest not everyone.
No sign of fear: pic.twitter.com/2PVG66ppdo
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 3, 2024
JUST IN: A record 85% of Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, according to Reventure.
Two years ago, just ~30% of Americans thought it was a bad time to buy a home.
Even in 2008, during the worst housing crisis of all time, this metric did not top 85%.
In a market… pic.twitter.com/94EdeqqFEg
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 3, 2024