Regional banks now hold almost one-third of all U.S. commercial mortgages and a majority of non-owner-occupied CRE, and “latent distress” is about 4X larger than what current delinquency rates imply.🧵
CRE: ~ $4.8 T
Consumer debt: $5.58T
(auto: $1.66T, Student loan: $1.65 T)
1. Chief Risk Officer of a regional bank admitted on the call that the appraisal process “is unreliable” in the current office market, implicitly calling into question valuations across the rest of the CRE book, even as management insists other marks are “good numbers.”
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) November 29, 2025
3. The full deep-dive article below is part of Confidential Insights, our paid macro-credit and consumer fragility series.
Thanksgiving offer 40% off ends tonight.
Be in the Know: https://t.co/noFLZBTPit
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) November 29, 2025
Scary numbers… 08 is going to look bullish in comparison.
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 29, 2025
🚨 Futures Trading halted by Chicago Mercantile Exchange yesterday when silver ripped to $54 / ounce
☎️ CME got MARGIN CALLED by the DTCC or NSCC
Trading resumed THE MOMENT the Fed Repo Facility reopened, allowing counterparties to borrow $24.4 BILLION in liquidity 🤡
Silver… https://t.co/ed0MMIOGll pic.twitter.com/p24ByY3Jme
— The Butcher of Wall Street Marcel Kalinovic (@BossBlunts1) November 28, 2025
🚨AI companies' debt is SKYROCKETING:
Meta and Google issued $30 billion and $36 billion in corporate debt, respectively, this year.
This excludes off-balance-sheet debt, which is rising as AI companies seek to hide some of the risk.👇https://t.co/84DVrhB7Qa
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 29, 2025
🚨AI BUBBLE BURST fears are rising:
Oracle, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swap hit 105 basis points, the highest in 3 YEARS.
Investors are increasingly protecting themselves against Oracle default risk as heavy AI spending is beginning to weigh 👇https://t.co/vYHYm6zvw9
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 29, 2025
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But… https://t.co/1y1O9Noug2 pic.twitter.com/Ly0jmhjrtq
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) November 29, 2025