Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Nobody in DC gives a fuck about your wallet. Consumers face brutal inflation and crumbling dollar value. And a 97% loss since 1913 (founding of the Fed) and an 88% loss since 1971 (closing of the gold window and 100% fiat currency) in the purchasing power of the dollar — by government measurements, which are …
US Treasuries dump hard, yields smash 2007 highs and climb toward 5 percent… Bond vigilantes force inflation forecast straight to 5 percent nightmare… Fed cornered into July rate hike or lose total control of the debt disaster… Just getting started 🔥 We’re going much higher 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/QOecLbynC9 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 18, 2026 🚨 …
Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling During the Biden administration, H-1B visa holders were buying houses with 97-100% financing. 97% would come from the FHA, with the rest coming from state first-time home buyer programs. Zero money down. Thanks to programs that were supposed to be helping low-income American families buy their own homes. FHA loans to non-permanent …
More homes are for sale. Prices are down. But nobody’s buying. Because the Fed trapped 40 million mortgages in cheap Covid rates so selling would double their payment. Jerome Powell should have cut rates years ago. Instead, he’s letting them rise, which will make the housing… https://t.co/dfgJVAxegv — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 24, 2026 …
Guys – NO ONE wants to hold debt right now. Not mortgages, not governmental. Bond buyers earn their paychecks over time from interest payments. Risk of default is part of it, but when you factor in the time value of money as central banks obliterate currency value with excessive deficit spending, there is very little …
“They Gave Mortgages to Illegal Immigrants.” – Ed Dowd Most thought the housing bubble was just rent subsidies. Wrong. The FHA was selling homes to illegals, using taxpayer-backed mortgages. “I thought they were just supporting prices via the rental market… but they were actually buying homes.” Now the market’s cracking. – Prices falling. – Layoffs …
Regional banks now hold almost one-third of all U.S. commercial mortgages and a majority of non-owner-occupied CRE, and “latent distress” is about 4X larger than what current delinquency rates imply.🧵 CRE: ~ $4.8 T Consumer debt: $5.58T (auto: $1.66T, Student loan: $1.65 T) 1. Chief Risk Officer of a regional bank admitted on the call …
by confoundedinterest17 The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership. But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, …
Fannie Mae is set to drop its 620 credit score minimum this month. On the surface level, this is huge, renters with good payment history, young people with thin files, anyone locked out by arbitrary score floors suddenly has a shot at conventional financing. Also, first time buyers are collapsing so Fannie Mae desperately needed …
If the mortgage has to double in length, the market is already broken. If you stretch a 30-year mortgage to 50 years on the median U.S. home (~$410K) You’ll pay roughly $300K–$450K more in interest over the life of the loan. Sure, your monthly payment drops — but you’ll spend an extra two decades paying …
The alarms aren’t just blinking anymore. They’re blaring. America’s debt-fueled consumer economy is starting to crack. Families who used to keep the stores and car dealers busy are now falling behind on payments. This isn’t some slow leak. It looks and feels like the early days of 2008, only deeper and faster. Car loans are …
The American dream isn’t fading away. It is being sold off piece by piece. Not from bombs or depression, but from a housing market so warped that basic life markers like marriage, kids, a house, even adopting a dog are being shoved into the future or abandoned completely. This is not just about prices. It …
The Federal Reserve is bleeding credibility. Not from miscalculations or inflation forecasts. From rot inside its own walls. Lisa Cook, a sitting Fed governor, is facing three separate criminal referrals for mortgage fraud. Three homes. Three states. Three filings that are inconsistent and fraudulent. The latest: a $361,000 condo in Cambridge, Massachusetts, declared a “second …
There’s nothing biased about labeling this the biggest bubble in US equity & housing history – it’s called the reality. Bubbles are rarely linear. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 24, 2025 Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009#RESights #MacroEdge — MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) August 24, 2025 July 2025 saw the second …
Robinhood is growing fast and burning hotter. The company added 1.2 million funded accounts in Q1 2025, pushing its total to 26.4 million. Assets under custody hit $132 billion. Revenue climbed 34% year over year. But the cost of that growth is rising faster than the revenue it brings in. Customer acquisition is getting expensive. …
2008 starts to look like a warm-up… The new synthetic mortgage back securities 2008 is going to look like a bull market. https://t.co/jZHvpWq6dQ — The Great Martis (@great_martis) June 25, 2025 .@pulte is easily the most ignorant bloated imbecile to head any federal housing bureaucracy and that's really saying something. Why would any self-respecting bank …
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/Btz5dSdNdp — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 23, 2025 It boils down to this: In terms of condos, sales that closed in May fell further and hit the lowest point in the data, along with Lockdown May 2020, seasonally adjusted; supply spiked to the highest level since the Housing Bust. In terms of single-family …
"We are going to discover just like we did from the 2005-2008 time period, that this perception that there is an incredible shortage of housing is simply wrong." pic.twitter.com/BGlNAraweK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 we know what's going on pic.twitter.com/3qd615gfqm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 20, 2025 There are roughly 14.9 million vacant …
The latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals a troubling trend, borrowers are falling behind on payments at an accelerating rate. This is not just a temporary setback. It is a clear sign that financial stress is mounting for millions of Americans. Mortgage delinquencies climbed from 0.70 percent in Q4 2024 …
by confoundedinterest17 ARMs?? Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have climbed to the highest origination volume share since 2008 as the yield curve steepens and bank lending demand picks up. The majority of ARM lending goes to high credit borrowers with jumbo-sized loans, which many banks see as a good fit to keep in their portfolios as they are …
The share of mortgages outstanding with rates below 3% – as close to free money as regular folks could get – has been declining slowly but steadily to 21.3% of all mortgages outstanding at the end of Q3 2024, from the peak in Q1 2022 (24.6%), according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s National Mortgage …
A mortgage lender owned by Warren Buffet’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been sued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), alleging that the business pushed people into taking unaffordable loans. The Jan. 6 lawsuit was filed against Tennessee-based Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Tennessee. The …
Commercial real estate bubble is popping as we speak. — YW770 (@yosefwolf770) December 11, 2024 1. Stocks: all-time highs2. Home Prices: all-time highs3. Bitcoin: all-time highs4. National Debt: all-time highs5. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 42 straight months, longest run of high inflation since early 1990s6. Fed: cutting rates again next weekhttps://t.co/R87GogKWA4 pic.twitter.com/iAFkBqmsid — Charlie …
Everyone’s going to be wiped out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjxDcIIqdVo
Although most US homeowners are immune from higher mortgage rates because they have fixed-rate mortgages, that’s not true for other types of credit. The delinquency rate on credit card loans is now the same as it was in 2010, a year when the unemployment rate was over 9%. pic.twitter.com/Nu2aobWKeB — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) June 14, …
These costs include property taxes, homeowners insurance, utilities, renovations, and maintenance. Let’s delve into the specifics: Property Taxes: The average homeowner pays $6,251 in property taxes annually. However, this amount varies significantly by state. For instance: New Jersey has the highest effective property tax rate at 2.46%, with an average tax bill of $8,928. Illinois, Connecticut, and New Hampshire also have …
This is something most people miss. Just because someone has a fixed rate mortgage it doesn’t mean their cost of ownership can’t increase. And if other costs do increase it’s identical to having an adjustable rate mortgage. At some point the owner has to sell. pic.twitter.com/t292RSSmCk — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) June 11, 2024 Fixed Rate …
Asmall group of Americans who took out cheaper but riskier mortgages several years ago are about to see their monthly payments skyrocket. Since 2019, more than 1.7 million homes have been bought using adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), which initially offer a lower, more affordable interest rate than their fixed-rate counterparts. But eventually, ARMs reset to …
Approximately $929 billion of the $4.7 trillion outstanding commercial mortgages held by U.S. lenders and investors are set to mature in 2024, marking a 28% increase from the $729 billion that matured in 20231. Additionally, regulators have identified the near $6 trillion pile of outstanding commercial real estate loans as a top threat to the financial system …
