PMI reports show downtrend; Empire State anomaly corrected, manufacturing in recession for two years.

Empire Fed Manufacturing index drops to 0.2, biggest fall since May 2023.

I predicted this last month when it went ridiculously high for one period.

A couple of things on PMI reports:

First, don’t take any new print to mean anything significant. It’s a jagged sawtooth because they don’t do backward revisions. Just follow the trend on these kinds of… https://t.co/wLLLbCScqM

— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 16, 2024