Jul NFP came in at +114K, the 2nd lowest since Dec 2020.
Apr (+108K) was the lowest since Dec 2020.
In the last 4 months NFP averaged +154K, a far cry from 250K-300K job gains per month we thought the economy was adding just a couple of months ago.
Namely, downward revisions… pic.twitter.com/OujQhTohSR
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 4, 2024
Unlike many prior months, government job gains were revised down in the past 3 months, by a total of -112K so that now the total of government jobs revisions in 2024 is negative (-78K).
For months and quarters prior, government jobs were mostly revised up keeping total NFP from… pic.twitter.com/4LFQnrO22T
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 4, 2024
In Jul 2024 job gains continued to be concentrated in government and government-supported sectors.
Namely government (+17K) and healthcare and social assistance (+64K) make 71% of total job gains in Jul (+114K).
6/11 pic.twitter.com/qeZ2DaEBDq
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 4, 2024
Jul AHE fell to +3.63% YoY, the lowest since May 2021.
AHE remain within the #Fed's 3-4% wage growth target and trending lower, showing there is no overheating coming from the labor mkt.
8/11 pic.twitter.com/ct5Kb0Dgdc
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 4, 2024
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10/11
— Marko Bjegovic (@MBjegovic) August 4, 2024
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