Strong growth doesn't guarantee recession avoidance; US grew 2.5% pre-Great Recession onset.

Fantastic point!

ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG

In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average

The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was announced a year after it started

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2024

See also Netanyahu casually orders US troops into Iran to grab uranium while Hormuz blockade spikes gas prices and locks recession in

See also Fed admits monetary policy may not be tight enough while recession warnings explode and tick tock countdown begins