Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Revenue beat is real, but leadership claim is forward pricing, not present proof Search growth is steady, not structurally re-accelerating from AI That matters because Search is still the profit core, not AI products Cloud is improving, but still smaller than AWS and Azure in total scale So “AI leadership” is not yet mirrored by …
This is not a simple “bull vs bear” earnings setup It is a fight between clean-looking unit economics and fragile distribution control The bull case is built on a very tight story Fast margin expansionHigh gross profitabilityRising ARPUStrong cash positionBuyback authorization On paper, it looks like a business that has already “solved” monetization But that …
New psychology research pinpoints a key factor separating liberal and conservative morality A new study published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin suggests that liberals and conservatives actually share a common foundation for morality based on preventing harm. The research indicates that political disagreements arise because people on the left and right hold different “assumptions …
Four headlines appeared today that, when placed together, raise a question that economists and politicians rarely want to confront. More Americans are having their electricity shut off as unpaid bills pile up. Analysts are asking what the S&P 500 may be hiding about the real condition of the economy. Some economists are openly wondering whether …
Gold is roaring because the US has stopped pretending. The polite version is “strong dollar policy.” The real version is: we will accept and even welcome, a softer dollar to win the trade war and rebuild American industry Gold Made an ATH at $5,500+ and the dollar keeps sliding. Most people think it’s just “safe-haven …
The economy looks fine on paper while people struggle just to get by. As Statista’s Felix Richter reports below, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.3 million Americans reported working multiple jobs in November 2025 – the highest number ever recorded since the BLS started tracking multiple jobholders in 1994. https://www.activistpost.com/9-3-million-americans-work-multiple-jobs-to-make-ends-meet/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 FED'S …
A freight train transporting fuel derailed on Wednesday near the Kochetovka-2 railway station in Russia’s Tambov region, triggering a major explosion and fire that engulfed multiple tank cars, regional authorities said. According to officials, 16 tank cars were involved in the blaze after the derailment near the city of Michurinsk. Tambov Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said …
#Gold hit the immediate resistance, but the momentum remains strong. Let's see if the price breaks again here before the inflation data. pic.twitter.com/faLSspNez9 — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) January 12, 2026 Live view of silver short positions pic.twitter.com/cqyRNmGlVS — Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) January 12, 2026 https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fuxhm2kw3itcg1.jpeg
US ADVANCE Q3 GDP +4.3% (CONSENSUS +3.3%) — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 23, 2025 Huge GDP beat.No inflation.Best economy in history.Cut rates to 0️⃣. Too much winning. — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 23, 2025 🇺🇸 Morning Economic Data: *Q3 GDP: Beat 🟢*Q3 Consumer Spending: Beat 🟢*Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴*Core Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴 Will …
Once CPI prints on Thursday and it is in line or cooler than expected Then there is very little in the way of the market running for the next few weeks at the very least. All important catalysts will be out of the way. The market has, by all accounts, handled the storm very well …
“Meanwhile sectors like AI, quantum, nuclear, flying cars are going parabolic. The disconnect has never been bigger. This won’t end well. Just look at the YTD bloodbath in major consumer names. $WEN – Wendy’s: -48% $CMG – Chipotle: -48% $LULU – Lululemon: -48% $TGT -Target: -35% $HPQ – HP: -30% $PYPL – PayPal: -30% $UPS …
This is consistent with the effects cited in the recently released SF Fed study of 150 years of tariffs. Tariff shocks = higher unemployment = lower inflation = clear aggregate demand contraction. This is not model based. It’s historical, empirical & statistically robust pic.twitter.com/wHbqUXofNV — Fifty Shades of Truth (@RamonGo62661955) November 15, 2025 Cass Freight …
People keep trying to drag this into crash talk while the tape is telling a different story. Breadth is firming and buyers keep showing up on every dip, so a short rally makes more sense than another doom cycle right now. MOVE Index Credit Markets not buying into the Wall St narrative the AI is …
Charlie Kirk was scheduled to speak at CSU in Fort Collins tonight, and 10,000 people turned out anyway. This is deep blue Colorado.@TPUSA pic.twitter.com/rmaiFQ8YwP — Robbie Rose (@HelloRobbieRose) September 19, 2025 Yes, several. — Robbie Rose (@HelloRobbieRose) September 19, 2025
Retail might be strong today, but underlying generational debt pressures and stagnant wages signal that this trend cannot sustain for more than a few quarters without breaking. "Gen Z and millennials are delaying traditional milestones like marriage, homeownership, and parenthood due to high housing costs and stagnant wages," per FORTUNE — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 16, …
They say the economy’s fine. That’s the first lie. You walk through any town that used to have factories, used to have warehouses, used to have jobs, and you don’t see recovery. You see silence. Long-term unemployment just hit a post-pandemic high. That means people aren’t just out of work. They’ve been out for half …
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday his country’s alliance with the United States was as “strong and as durable as the stones of the Western Wall.”
JUST IN: Chris Christie goes BERSERK on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and warns RFK is a grave danger to American health. “Robert F Kennedy Jr. is a foolish man, full of foolish and vapid ideas. And that was on display again this week in front of Congress.” “This wholly unqualified man [is] in charge of …
Zelensky chooses the meeting place with Putin and demands strong cards from allies for negotiations 😂 ‘This week there will be contacts with Turkey, contacts with the Persian Gulf countries, with European countries that can become platforms for talks with the Russians. On our… pic.twitter.com/DOYPuOeeqK — Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) August 26, 2025 🇺🇦🇷🇺🇩🇪 RUSSIA IS DONE! …
Canada could be a strong and independent nation… but Carney will bow to trump no doubt — AnCap Rogue (@AnCapRogue) August 14, 2025
by David Haggith When I say, “the bull market is strong,” I only mean the market for selling words that are complete “bull____” is strong. The stock analyst bull that goes in your ears about the economy is reeks strongly these days. The economic reality, itself, is weak. And, for that reason, the resurrected bull …
DAX is breaking down hard. That is not just a Europe problem it is a global risk off signal. Capital is rotating. Expect the US dollar to catch a bid as investors flee to safety. Watch DXY, EUR USD, and gold closely. This move is just getting started. DAX looks like its breaking down… pic.twitter.com/dlLdU3fzbf …
Forget the daily market chatter about flashy tech or quick trades. If you want the real pulse of the American economy, look no further than where people actually live: the housing market. Right now, that vital sector, for some of its biggest players, is signaling real trouble, not just a passing chill. Is it bad …
Trump this morning: "We of course support Israel, obviously and supported it like nobody has ever supported it." “Iran should have listened to me when I said – you know I gave them, I don’t know if you know but I gave them a 60-day warning and today is day 61." — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) …
US 5-Year Note Auction High Yield 4.071% (stop through 0.4 BPS)Bid-to-Cover 2.39Sells $70 blnAwards 23.12% of bids at highPrimary dealers take 9.24%Direct 12.39%Indirect 78.37% — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) May 28, 2025 US sells $70B in 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.071%, slightly below the 4.075% when-issued level. Strong international demand with 78.4% going to …
“Consumer spending is strong” Well, you see, they’re not actually PAYING… — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) May 19, 2025 Nails it: The consumer is tapped out: Like more so than any period in history Anyone got some answers? pic.twitter.com/C53VyxwSxY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 20, 2025 Consumer sentiment on employment at weakest level since 2008 per …
These hard data weeks are always one of the best since it gives a broad read on the economy – giving our most timely read on demand, production, housing, and employment. Instead of focusing on the wiggles (which can be jerked around by SA), more useful to look at y/y & levels. — Bob Elliott …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are companies going to be able to afford this? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 14, 2025 …
Breaking March retail sales +1.4% vs +1.2% Ex autos +.5% vs +.3% exp. Strong numbers. With tariffs coming the market isn’t really reacting. Are consumers front running the tariffs juicing this months number? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 16, 2025 NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. shoppers increased their shopping last month, fueled by a spending …
